Democratization

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Democratization

• James Robinson
• Harvard University

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Basic Questions

• How do we measure democracy?
• Why are some countries democracies and others
  not?
• In what circumstances will a non-democratic
  regime become a democracy?
• In what circumstances will it stay a democracy
  (will democracy consolidate)?

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Measuring Democracy

• Schumpeter (1950, p. 250) argued that democracy
  was the institutional arrangement for arriving
  at political decisions in which individuals
  acquire the power to decide by means of a
  competitive struggle for the people's vote.
• One measure is the Polity index, which is the
  difference between Politys Democracy and
  Autocracy indices. Democracy Index ranges from 0
  to 10 and is derived from coding the
  competitiveness of political participation, the
  openness and competitiveness of executive
  recruitment and constraints on the chief
  executive. The Polity Autocracy Index also ranges
  from 0 to 10 and is constructed in a similar way
  to the democracy score.
• I normalize the index to be between 0 and 1.

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A Big Fact
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A Simple Framework

• Two groups in society, the citizens and the
  elite.
• Dictatorship is rule of the elite. Many sorts of
  elites.
• Policy (say income redistribution) in a
  dictatorship tends to favor the elite, but
  democracy would favor the citizens.
• If citizens are relatively poor they favor
  redistribution, while elites oppose it.
• This implies the elite prefer dictatorship while
  citizens prefer democracy.

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Figure 1. Preferences over Income Redistribution
Redistribution Tomorrow
Citizens better off in this direction
Uc
Elite better off in this direction
Ue
Redistribution Today
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Social Conflict

• If there is dictatorship and the elite do not
  like democracy how can democracy ever come about?
• Even in dictatorship the citizens can riot,
  strike, even threaten revolution.
• I can conceptualize this as a revolution
  constraint that the elite must satisfy.
• To keep the citizens contented (under control?)
  the elite must give them favors today and also
  promise them in the future.
• There are limits to how much they can credibly
  promise.

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Figure 2. When Redistribution satisfies the
Revolution Constraint
Redistribution Tomorrow
C
Tc
The Maximum Credible amount of redistribution is
enough to avoid revolution
Tmax
UR
Ue
C
T
Redistribution Today
Tc
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Democratization

• If elite cannot buy off (avoid a revolution) the
  citizens with redistribution they can repress
  them or give away their power democratize.
• Which they do depends on which is less costly for
  them.
• Imagine there is a cost of repression k, then
  democracy arises when the utility of the elite
  from democratization is greater than from
  repression UeD UeO-k.

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Figure 3. When Redistribution cannot satisfy the
Revolution Constraint
Redistribution Tomorrow
Indifference curve of elite Corresponding to
democracy
Tc
UR
Tmax
C
UcO
UeD
C
UeO
Redistribution Today
Tc
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Comparative Statics

• These generate the predictions of the model and
  help us to understand when democratization will
  take place.
• Example imagine inequality increases, then
  citizens want more redistribution in democracy,
  democracy gets worse for the elite, therefore
  they a more inclined to repress.

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Figure 4. Some Comparative Statics of the Model
Redistribution Tomorrow
T c(new)
Tc
UcO
UR
C
UeD(new)
UeD
C
UeO
Redistribution Today
Tc
Tc(new)
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Back to the Data

• What are the implications for the Big Fact and
  the Modernization hypothesis?
• Why are rich countries more democratic than poor
  countries?
• The model does not imply that higher income
  per-capita induces democratization.
• It does imply however that there is a natural
  affinity between poverty and dictatorship. For
  instance, if property rights are insecure,
  investment is low, society will be poor, but also
  huge benefits from being in power and greater
  incentives to avoid democracy by using repression.

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In Fact as Incomes rise 1970-1995 societies do
not seem to become more democratic
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Even over a longer period
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But if we go far enough back it must happen
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Modernization

• So is the modernization hypothesis right, but
  with a huge lag?
• Not necessarily. The model suggests that factors
  that lead to low incomes lead to dictatorship,
  while factors that lead to high incomes lead to
  democracy.
• What factors?
• More basic ways in which society is organized
  compare the history of North and Latin America.
• So democracy and income co-evolve but income does
  not cause democracy.

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Taking into account the historical determinants
of development paths