Lecture 9: Do Democratic Political Structures Reduce Conflict

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Lecture 9 Do Democratic Political Structures
Reduce Conflict?
1. Levels Of Analysis 2. Regime Type As An
Independent Variable 3. Immanuel Kant Regime
Type And War 4. System Level Test Waves Of
Democratization and War 5. State Level Test
Democracies And War 6. Theoretical Explanations
--Pacific Publics, Norms, Structures 7.
Final Comments
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Levels Of Analysis
1. SYSTEMIC LEVEL 2. INTERSTATE OR REGIME
LEVEL 3. DOMESTIC, STATE, OR SOCIETAL LEVEL 4.
BUREAUCRATIC LEVEL 5. INDIVIDUAL OR DECISION
MAKING LEVEL
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The Influence Of Regime Type
1. Classifying Regimes Autocracy Versus
Democracy 2. Possible Hypotheses H1 Democracy
--(-)--gt Income Inequality H2 Autocracy
--()--gt Revolts And Domestic Unrest H3
Democracy --(-)--gt Economic Development H4
Autocracy --(-)--gt Economic Development H5
Democracy --()--gt Suicide 3. Key Hypothesis
Relating Regime Type And War H6 Democracy
--(-)--gt War Proneness
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Democracies And War
1. Immanuel Kants Perpetual Peace
(1795) Prediction Spread Of Democracy Will
Cause Peace Rationale Distribution Of Costs
And Benefits Of War --Oligarchs Reap Benefits
While People Pay Costs Conclusion More
Inclusive Political Institutions Should Lead
To A Permanent Peace 2. Woodrow Wilson Idealist
And Democrat
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Democracies And War
How Could You Test Kants Argument?
A) Systemic Test
(-)
Amount of War in the System
Higher Percentage of Democracies
B) State Level Test
(-)
Democratic States
Probability of Initiating War
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Systemic Test Democratization
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Systemic Test War
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Systemic Test Democracy War
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State Level Test
H1 Democracy --(-)--gt War Involvement
A) Quincy Wright (1942) No Support B) Small And
Singer (1976) No Support C) Recent Test Doyle
(1983)
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Doyles Approach Dyadic Peace
Side B
Democracy
Autocracy
No War
Lots of War
Democracy
Side A
Lots of War
Lots of War
Autocracy
Dyadic Democratic Peace A) Democracies Are
Peaceful With Each Other B) But Democracies Are
Just As War Like As Other States When Facing
Non-democracies
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Can Pacific Publics Explain The Democratic Peace?
H1 Pacific Public --(-)--gt Conflict Between
Democracies
Argument Public Does Not Want To Pay For Costly
Wars. Problems 1) Democracies Should Be
Peaceful With Everyone 2) Many Examples Of
Pro-War Publics (e.g., Spanish-American War
Crimean War)
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Can Peaceful Norms Of Conflict Resolution Explain
The Democratic Peace?
H2 Peaceful Norms Of ------(-)-----gt Conflict
Between Democracies Conflict Resolution
Argument 1) Socialized To Favor Non-violent
Resolution Conflicts. 2) Domestic Norms are
Externalized 3) Expect Other Democracies to be
Less Conflict Prone
Problems 1) Democracies Dont Always Have
Peaceful Norms 2) Externalization Is Not
Automatic 3) Implies All Authoritarian Are
Equally War Prone 4) What About Young
Democracies?
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Can Institutional Constraints ExplainThe
Democratic Peace?
H3 Institutional --(-)--gt Conflict Between
Democracies Constraints
Argument 1) All Leaders Wish to Remain in
Office 2) Support and Opposition Exists in All
Societies 3) Opposition Exploits Failure to
Punish Leaders 4) The Greater the Opposition, the
More Cautious the Leader 5) Expect Other
Democracies to be Constrained Problems 1) Some
Types of Autocratic Institutions are
Constrained 2) Open Institutions Does Not
Guarantee Opposition
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Recent Research A Monadic Peace?

• Empirical Support Rousseau (2005), Bennett
  Stam (2004), Huth Allee (2002), Schultz (2001)
• Generally weaker marginal impact than dyadic
  variable
• Identifying Conditions When are democracies more
  peaceful?

Wars
Crises
Disputes
Peace
Disputes, Domestic Opposition, Coalitions, and
Covert Action
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Operationalization Matters
1. Doyle Defines War As 1000 Battle
Deaths Excludes Coercive Methods Short Of
War (e.g., Small Coups, Rigging Elections,
Assassination) 2. Assumes Concept Of Democracy
Is Stable Over Time -- Comparing Democracy From
1850 With One From 1980 -- A State Is Democratic
If 30 Of Males Can Vote Very Democratic In
1860 Not In 1990
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Lessons From The Democratic Peace Investigation
1. Correlations Can Be Spurious -- You Must
Investigate The Causal Guts 2. Some Hypotheses
Or Explanations Can Be Eliminated (e.g.,
Pacific Publics) 3. Important Practical
Implications a) Is Covert Action A Permanent
Problem? b) Are Young Democracies More War
Prone? c) Could a Quasi-Democratic Russia Be
Partially Constrained? 4. The Evolution Of
Knowledge Propose, Test, And Adjust