consumption will lead to resource scarcity eventually

1
consumption will lead to resource scarcity
eventually we are entering this era now but
are in complete denial about it. Rare Earths
are the first indication.

• What are the manifestations and solutions?
• Challenges traditional supply/demand economic
  models
• Requires some component of morality based
  decision making
• Requires public policy based on avoiding the
  worse possible outcome
• .
• The time is near (10-20 years) for the end of
  cheap fossil fuels as our energy foundation
• Solutions do exist implementation takes
  leadership and the ability to think big
• The Public needs to become a lot more energy and
  climate literate in order for initiatives to
  succeed

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The World is Also Changing
Post WW II
New Players Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey

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Victor Lebow Journal of Retailing 1955

• Our enormously productive economy demands that we
  make consumption our way of life, that we convert
  the buying and use of goods into rituals, that we
  seek our spiritual satisfactions, our ego
  satisfactions, in consumption. The measure of
  social status, of social acceptance, of prestige,
  is now to be found in our consumptive patterns.
  The very meaning and significance of our lives
  today is expressed in consumptive terms.

4
The Consumptive Mandate Waveform if you got
more, consume even more Maintain BAU
Greed
sustainability
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Accelerated Climate Change
CONSUMPTION ?
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What Are the BAU Options?

• LNG Importation development
• Clean Coal
• Fast Breeder Reactors
• NG Fracking (steel problem)

• Fastest gateway to energy economy
• Leads to Growth of GDP
• Accelerates Global CO2 Deposition
• Reinforces BAU mine the planet

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Breaking out of BAU

• Consume less
• Drive less
• Plan ahead
• Invest in Renewable Energy infrastructure
• Have long term governmental goals

• Instill consumer morality based decision making
• Requires actual leadership
• Requires world cooperation one planet

Is this just too Damn Hard to Do?
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But Solution Space Exists!

• Solar PV
• Solar CSP Solar Thermal Electric
• Wind (ON shore and Off Shore)
• Alternative Fuels (biodiesel, ethanol (grain and
  cellulosic, hydrogen, hybrids)
• Biomass Co-Generation
• OTEC Gulf Current
• Live in Ambient Partnership with Nature

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Barriers to Renewables

• High capital cost long payback times
• Lack of any vision or out of the box thinking on
  truly large scale projects
• NIMBY reactions to anything and everything makes
  implementation difficult
• Technology uncertainty
• Grid Limitations
• Human apathy, ignorance, entitlement

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GOD
Certainty Entitlement Aarogance
Connectivity Of Atoms
HUMANS
HUMANS
NATURE
Wisdom Enlightenment Humility
Super Nova
ROCKS
TREES
TREES
ROCKS
Everything Is Connected to
Everything
Disconnected States
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Evaluation Rubric For All forms of Renewables

• 1. MW output per surface area (MW/KM2)
• 2. MW output per material use (MW/Ton)
• 3. MW output per job created (Jobs/MW)
• 4. MW output versus production time scale to
  bring on line (months/MW)
• 5. Capital cost per MW (/Watt)
• 6. Realistic Levelized Cost (cents per KWH)

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To Evaluate Competing Electricity Generating
Technologies

• Develop an internally consistent indexing system
  for the 6 attributes listed previously (the dow
  jones is an index)
• Use real world data and real world physics to
  best determine the values
• Weight the indexes appropriately (real world
  cares about /Watt and Jobs Created)
• Choose Baseline we will use Solar in the
  following exercise

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Indexing Solar Troughs

• 1. Land 20 MW/km (over 24 hour day) 1
• 2. Materials 3 tons per kw 1
• 3. Jobs 3 jobs per MW
• 4. Time 10 MW per month
• 5. Capital 3 per watt real facility cost
• 6. Levelized 10 cents per KWH

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Index Solar Wind Waves Biomass
Land 1 2.5 1 .2
Material 1 3 .2 1
Jobs 1 1 1 5
Time 1 3 .5 .5
Capital 1 2.5 .5 .5
Level 1 3 .75 1
Cumulative Index 12(1.5)341.25(5)1.25(6)
Highest Index is Best
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Relative Ranking

• Solar 7
• Waves 4.75
• Biomass 11 (because of jobs created)
• Wind 17 (lower material intensity and low
  Levelized costs)
• In general, wind is more scalable than Solar and
  wind always beats Solar PV

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Thinking Big -Solar

• Sonoran Desert Project

300,000 square km _at_ 2 coverage yields 100,000 MW
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Thinking Big - Wind
Lake Michigan Wind project down North South Axis
Populate 400 x 30 km box with 30 legs each
containing 1200 5 MW turbines 180,000 MW
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Thinking Real Big - Wind
Great Prairie Wind Farm with 100 MW vertical Wind
Turbines Construct 10,000 of these (Space
Needle Size) and each per 125 square km. This
produces 1TW of electricity and effectively
replaces all other forms of electricity
generation in the US.
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Be Optimistic and ProActive

• Change can occur when consumers are properly
  informed.
• Technological solutions exist to make significant
  impact if deployed now
• Consume Less
• Technology is rapidly improving
• We are probably NOT Terminally Stupid

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Correct this ?

• Our view of the world as a resource to use up
  must change!
• Profit vs Equity Surplus ? Growth or Equity?
  Growth or Prosperity?
• This is your generations challenge

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What Inequity Looks Like
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Recommendations

• Preserve Natural Capital Protected Biodiversity
• Produce more efficiently
• Consume more wisely
• Redirect financial flows to support
  sustainability
• Equitable resource governance
• Equitable resource governance also requires a
  changed definition of well-being and success that
  includes personal, societal and environmental
  health
• What process is needed for implementation?

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You have three choices
Make the Wise Choice
Practice BAU
Give UP
Proactive Educate your Peers