Title: Grand Overview
1Grand Overview
- Over consumption will lead to resource scarcity
eventually - Resource scarcity changes traditional economi
models and puts us in new territority - 3. That time is near for fossil fuels as our
energy foundation - 4. New solutions do exist implementation
takes leadership and the ability to think big
2What has changed in the last Year
- The Obama Unit is now established insufficient
Federal funding for alternative energy
infrastructure. - Optimistic discovery potential of new NG reserves
keeps on BAU pathway - Despite a massive corporate oil spill in the Gulf
BAU continues unabated - Congress has now proved ineptness at large scale
budget issues
3Resource Scarcity Depression
- At any given time, humanity always thinks its
doomed yet we survive - Dont be depressed be angry and be proactive
- Consume less Subversive messaging works
convince your peer network to consume less. - Become Fred
4Consumption is the sole end and purpose of all
production
Adam Smith right up there with Aristotle!
51942 Lecture
- I do not think we will ever escape from the
appalling squirrel-cage of economic confusion in
which we have been madly turning for the last
three centuries the cage in which we landed
ourselves by acquiescing in a social system based
upon Envy and Avarice. A society in which
consumption has to be artificially stimulated in
order to keep production going is a society
founded on trash and waste and such a society is
a house built upon sand.
6Consumption with a Conscience
7The traditional Economic Argument Does Not Scale!
8Wow bet you didnt know this
9And Now we are at an Interesting Point (50-150
for crude oil) ? worldwide economic volatility
10The Business As Usual Future whats the point
its time to grow up now
JUST SAY NO TO THIS PATH
11Continued Climate Change
12What Are the BAU Options?
- LNG development
- Clean Coal
- Fast Breeder Reactors
- Unconventional Oil sources (shale oil and tar
sands)
- Fastest gateway to energy economy
- Leads to Growth of GDP
- Accelerates Global CO2 Deposition
- Reinforces BAU mine the planet
13Breaking out of BAU
- Consume less
- Drive less
- Plan ahead
- Invest in Renewable Energy infrastructure
- Have long term governmental goals
- Requires some component of morality based
decision making - Requires leadership
- Requires world cooperation
Is this just too Damn Hard to Do? So we run away
from it?
14But Many Options Now Exist
- Solar PV
- Solar CSP Solar Thermal Electric
- Wind (ON shore and Off Shore)
- Alternative Fuels (biodiesel, ethanol (grain and
celluolistic, hydrogen, hybrids) - Biomass Co-Generation
- OTEC Gulf Current
15Barriers to Renewables
- High capital cost long payback times
- Lack of any vision or out of the box thinking on
truly large scale projects - NIMBY reactions to anything and everything makes
implementation difficult - Technology uncertainty
- Electrical Grid limitations
16Solar Pros and Cons
- Pros
- Resource is available
- CSP technology rapidly improving
- Many small scale applications
- Thermal Electric is dispatchable
- Can co-locate with Fossil Plan
- Cons
- Large /Watt installation costs
- Large Scale (1000 MW or greater) facilities
difficult - Requires Significant Energy storage for 24x7
17Wind Pros and Cons
- Pros
- Low levelized costs
- Small footprint on the Land
- Applicable on both large and small scale
- Some wind resources is usually always present
- Cons
- Visual Pollution
- Resource is erratic in nature and therefore
requires energy storage - Transmission line expense for remote wind farms
is large
18Transportation Changes
- Pros
- Single biggest lever arm for energy conservation
- Single biggest lever to mitigate climate change
- Single biggest influence on development
- Cons
- Marx says we cant
- Our whole economic structure is based on private
vehicles - Vast amounts of jobs are associated with our
current structure
19OTEC Gulf Current
- Pros
- Has enough capacity to sustain world for
centuries - In situ Hydrogen Production for transport economy
- Cons
- Gigantic up front costs
- Engineering challenge
- Requires world cooperation
20Evaluation Rubric For All forms of Renewables
- 1. MW output per surface area (MW/KM2)
- 2. MW output per material use (MW/Ton)
- 3. MW output per job created (Jobs/MW)
- 4. MW output versus production time scale to
bring on line (months/MW) - 5. Capital cost per MW (/Watt)
- 6. Realistic Levelized Cost (cents per KWH)
21To Evaluate Electricity Generating Technologies
- Develop an internally consistent indexing system
for the 6 attributes listed previously (the dow
jones is an index) - Use real world data and real world physics to
best determine the values - Weight the indexes appropriately (real world
cares about /Watt and Jobs Created) - Choose Baseline we will use Solar in the
following exercise
22Indexing - Solar
- 1. 20 (averaged over 24 hour day) 1
- 2. 3 tons per kw 1
- 3. 3 jobs per MW
- 4. 10 MW per month
- 5. 3 per watt real facility cost
- 6. 10 cents per KWH
23Index Solar Wind Waves Biomass
1 1 10 2 .2
2 1 3 .5 1
3 1 1 1 5
4 1 3 .5 .5
5 1 2 .75 .5
6 1 3 .5 1
Cumulative Index 12(1.5)341.25(5)1.25(6)
24Relative Ranking
- Solar 7
- Waves 7.5
- Biomass 11 (because of jobs created)
- Wind 24 (because of excellent material ratio
and low Levelized costs)
25Thinking Big -Solar
300,000 square km _at_ 2 coverage yields 100,000 MW
26Thinking Big - Wind
Lake Michigan Wind project down North South Axis
Populate 400 x 30 km box with 30 legs each
containing 1200 5 MW turbines 180,000 MW
27Thinking Real Big - Wind
Great Prairie Wind Farm with 100 MW vertical Wind
Turbines Construct 10,000 of these (Space
Needle Size) and each per 125 square km. This
produces 1TW of electricity and effectively
replaces all other forms of electricity
generation in the US.
28Be Optimistic
- Change can occur this class is part of this
process - Individual attitudes matter and multiply this
is where informed peers matter! - European Union is providing a good example of
government driven initiatives for a new energy
economy ? Temporary World economic set back - Technology is rapidly improving but investment
needs to be sustained - Nanotech is important, very important.
- Wisdom can be re-acquired remember Fred!
- We aint dead yet!