A World of Connections:

1
A World of Connections The coming age of
ubiquitous networking Kenneth Neil
Cukier GLOCOM - October 22, 2007
2
The Internet Today
3
The Internet of Tomorrow
4
Introduction

• Computing and networking PC Web via wire
• 1. few 2. humans 3. discrete sessions 4.
  media content and comms
• Changing to devices sensors via wireless
• ever-present 2. objects 3. all the time 4.
  data about the world

5
Overview
We are laying the foundation For a new
infrastructure We do not know how it will be
used But it will surprise us!
6
Outline

• - Trends computing, IT, processors, wireless
• - Taxonomy of technologies
• - Current and future uses
• cars
• factories
• bodies
• - Public Policy Regulation
• - Conclusion

7
Trends in Computing
8
Trends in I.T.

• 850 million PCs
• 1 billion Internet users
• 2.8 billion mobile phone subscribers
• (1.6 million new mobile subscribers per day)
• 10 billion microprocessors in 2007

9
Trends in Processors Moores Law
10
Trends in Wireless Efficiency
11
Trends in Wireless Cost
12
Trends in Power Consumption
13
Trends in Data vs. Voice Traffic
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Machines vs. Humans

• - Transactions by computers exceed people
• - 12 of DNS traffic from computers alone
• - M2M to surpass people circa 2009-2011
• - Cell phones communicate with base-stations 800
  times per second (power management)
• - 400 billion DNS queries per day in 2010 (peak
  load of 4 trillion)

15
The Marriage of Chips and Communications
Things that think want to link. -- Nicholas
Negroponte, MIT, 1995
16
Taxonomy of Wireless Technologies
17
Examples

• GPS Bluetooth chip 1 size of match-head
• Zigbee chip 4, size of pinky-nail (1/4 cost
  size in 4 yrs
• RFID tag 5
• RFID prototype 0.05mm (groove in fingerprint)
• RFID 2006 sales 1 million (2007 1.7 million)

18
Uses

• Machine-to-machine mousetraps vending
• Sensors buildings environment military
• New infrastructure lighting paint dust
• Human bodies monitoring activation
• Cellphones the gateway controller

19
Market Size by Volume
20
Market Breakdown by Application
21
Future Uses Cars

• Accident notification
• Predictive maintenance
• Toll charges
• New uses insurance rates sub-prime loans
  theft-prevention traffic monitoring

22
Chips in Cars
23
Future Uses Factories

• Lighting controls / Security alarms
• Remote control / Operations monitoring
• Predictive Maintenance
• New uses how processes learn

24
Chips in Factories
25
Future Uses Bodies

• Vital signs
• Heart fluid-pressure monitoring
• Alcohol and drug intake
• Blood-sugar levels insulin dosage
• New Uses post-operative treatment

26
Chips in Bodies
27
Obstacles

• Who would do it?
• Who will pay for it?
• Do we need it?
• Will it actually work??!!

28
Public Policy

• Privacy
• Data-security
• Intellectual property
• Information overload
• Radio-waves and health
• Spectrum availability and allocation
• ___________________________________
• Interconnection of separate systems
• Computer memory forgetting

29
Regulation

• Who, what, where, when, how?
• Bilateral vs. multilateral relationships
• Public- vs. private-sector governance
• The risk of regulating too soon

30
Comparison of Cellphone M2M units
31
Conclusion
People often overestimate what will happen in
the next two years and underestimate what will
happen in ten. -- Bill Gates, The Road Ahead,
1995
32
Thank you ltkennethcukier_at_economist.comgt GLOCOM
- October 22, 2007
33
Sources
Indicated by slide number 1, 4-6, 8, 14, 15, 17,
18, 21, 23, 25, 27-29, 31, 32, 33. -- N/A 2, 3,
9, 10, 11, 16, 19. -- The Economist, 2007
(references for data sources on published
articles contact speaker for more info) 7. ITU,
2005 12. Texas Instruments (Gene Frantz, 2007).
13. ITU, 2005 (data from US FCC) 20, Gartner,
2006 22. Automotive Engineering International 24.
BP, CommsDesign.com, 2004 26. VeriChip,
Medtronic 30. Jupiter Research, 2006