Research Needs

1
Research Needs
Figure A151

• Paleoseismicity data
• Paleoliquefaction (field studies, interpretation,
  uncertainties)
• Lake deposits
• Fragile features
• Historical data
• Identification and information (newspapers,
  census data, etc.)
• Analysis (site effects, intensity, etc)
• Geologic effects
• Global analogues
• What is an analogue? (comparison of NA global,
  subdivision of global, statistical tests)
• Indentify and incorporate uncertainty in
  magnitude
• Removal of multiple events from database
• Bias corrections
• Reactivation
• Australian neo-tectonic features investigation
• Study of reactivation to determine most likely
  fault types (CA foothills)
• Wells Coppersmith update for SCR
• Strain rate data collection, lower crustal strain
  anomalies, LIDAR
• Fault segmentation, DEM/Google earth
  investigations, triggered seismicity

2
Method Resolutions
Figure A152
Mobs Only useful as min Mmax anchor or input to Bayesian method
Mobsc Lacks strong technical basis
Seismicity Rates Not reliable at this time
M-f extrapolation Not reliable at this time
Local geology/ rupture dimensions useful as data input
NA analogues Direct method and input to Bayesian method
Global analogues Direct method and input to Bayesian method
3
Method Resolutions
Figure A153
Bayesian methods Useful framework for Mmax
Physics Ultimate goal, not yet there as sole predictor, useful as input to data sets
GPS data useful as data input
Statistics M-f extrapolation useful as sanity check, min Mmax
Pattern recognition Too little data currently, further research?
Qo Q too unreliable a basis
Mb7.5 No technical basis
4
Mmax Methods
Figure A154
Global Analogues
Bayesian

• Prior
• NA analogue
• Global analogue
• Physical principals
• paleoseismic

• Likelihood function
• Mobs
• Instrumental
• Historical
• paleoseismic
• Statistical analyses
• Geologic Features (paleoseismic)

5
Figure A155
Individual Methods
Consideration for Weighting
Method

• Most appropriate for well characterized
  faults/sources

• Fault dimensions