Risk Analysis

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Risk Analysis Management

• Analisa Manajemen Resiko

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What is it?

• Risk analysis and management are a series of
  steps that help a software team to understand and
  manage uncertainty.
• Many problems can plague a software project.
• A risk is a potential problemit might happen, it
  might not.
• But, regardless of the outcome, its a really
  good idea to
• identify it,
• assess its probability of occurrence,
• estimate its impact, and
• establish a contingency plan should the problem
  actually occur.

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Who does it?

• Everyone involved in the software process
  participate in risk analysis and management
• managers,
• software engineers, and
• customers

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Why is it important?

• Be prepared. Software is a difficult
  undertaking.
• Lots of things can go wrong, and frankly, many
  often do.
• Its for this reason that being prepared
  understanding the risks and taking proactive
  measures to avoid or manage themis a key element
  of good software project management.

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What are the steps?

• Recognizing what can go wrong is the first step,
  called risk identification.
• Next, each risk is analyzed to determine the
  likelihood that it will occur and the damage that
  it will do if it does occur.
• Once this information is established, risks are
  ranked, by probability and impact.
• Finally, a plan is developed to manage those
  risks with high probability and high impact.

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What is the work product?

• A risk mitigation, monitoring, and management
  (RMMM) plan
• Or a set of risk information produced.

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6.1 REACTIVE VS. PROACTIVE RISK STRATEGIES

• More commonly, the software team does nothing
  about risks until something goes wrong. Then, the
  team flies into action in an attempt to correct
  the problem rapidly. This is often called a fire
  fighting mode.
• A proactive strategy begins long before technical
  work is initiated. Potential risks are
  identified, their probability and impact are
  assessed, and they are ranked by importance.
  Then, the software team establishes a plan for
  managing risk.

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6.2 SOFTWARE RISKS

• When risks are analyzed, it is important to
  quantify the level of uncertainty and the degree
  of loss associated with each risk.
• Risk categories
• Project risks threaten the project plan.
• Technical risks threaten the quality and
  timeliness of the software to be produced.
• Business risks threaten the viability of the
  software to be built.

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6.3 RISK IDENTIFICATION

• Generic and product-specific risk.
• Create risk item checklist
• Product size
• Business
• Customer
• Process
• Development
• Technology
• Staff size and experience
• Risk components
• Performance
• Cost
• Support
• Schedule risk

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RISK PROJECTION

• The project planner, along with other managers
  and technical staff, performs four risk
  projection activities
• (1) establish a scale that reflects the perceived
  likelihood of a risk,
• (2) delineate the consequences of the risk, (3)
  estimate the impact of the risk on the project
  and the product, and
• (4) note the overall accuracy of the risk
  projection so that there will be no
  misunderstandings.

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Develop Risk Table
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Assessing Risk Impact

• Risk identification. Only 70 percent of the
  software components scheduled for reuse will, in
  fact, be integrated into the application. The
  remaining functionality will have to be custom
  developed.
• Risk probability. 80 (likely).
• Risk impact. 60 reusable software components were
  planned. If only 70 percent can be used, 18
  components would have to be developed from
  scratch (in addition to other custom software
  that has been scheduled for development). Since
  the average component is 100 LOC and local data
  indicate that the software engineering cost for
  each LOC is 14.00, the overall cost (impact)
  would be 18 x 100 x 14 25,200.
• Risk exposure. RE 0.80 x 25,200 20,200.

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RISK MITIGATION, MONITORING, AND MANAGEMENT

• An effective strategy must consider three issues
• risk avoidance
• risk monitoring
• risk management and contingency planning

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RMMM Plan
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Summary

• Sun Tzu, a Chinese general who lived 2500 years
  ago, "If you know the enemy and know yourself,
  you need not fear the result of a hundred
  battles."
• For the software project manager, the enemy is
  risk.