Modelling needs and resources of older people to 2030 LSHTM contribution and plans

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Modelling needs and resources of older people to
2030 LSHTM contribution and plans

• Resources 15 of EG throughout (focussed some
  time periods)
• c. 12 months of a researcher tba will
  probably create combined 20 month post using
  resources available from a related European
  project.
• Also contribution of Linda Pickard to WP4
• EG in Norway Jan-mid Feb 2007. Plan to start work
  on NDA in March.

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LSHTM

• -Input into work package 3 (changing family unit
  and kinship and through this linkage also with
  WP 1 mortality trends)
• Lead on work package 4, Household and Family
  Resources

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NDA LSHTM Contribution

• WP 4 Brief
• Modelling of demographic and other determinants
  of household type and household type transitions
• Modelling of associations between family
• Resources, socio-economic circumstances and
  social participation

4
Workplan LSHTM

• 1) Literature review and programme
  interaction/development question how how we
  going to co-ordinate literature review work to
  avoid duplication?.
• 2) Analyses of ONS LS data
• 3) Analyses of survey data, principally ELSA.

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Workplan Analyses based on ONS LS

• 1) Analysis of period changes in marital status
  mortality differentials using data from the ONS
  LS (1971-5 1981-5 1991-5 2001-05).
  Contribution to WP 3
• 2) Cross sequential analyses of ONS LS to
  illuminate trends and variations in
  intergenerational co-residence and proportions
  moving to live with relatives (builds on earlier
  work)
• 3) More detailed analysis of household
  transitions 1991-2001 in ONS LS.

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The ONS Longitudinal Study of England Wales

• Census data for individuals with one of four
  birthdates enumerated at the 1971 Census (c. 1
  of population)
• Maintained through addition of immigrants and new
  births with LS birth date
• Information from later censuses (1981, 91 2001)
  added
• Linked event data including death of the spouse
  of sample members and deaths of sample members.

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Proportion () of elderly men and women living in
households with two or more generations, England
and Wales, 1971 and 2001(private household
population).
Men
Women
Source Analysis of ONS LS data.
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Proportion () of people aged 65 and over who
changed family/household type between censuses
1971-81 1981-91 1991-2001 by age and
family/household type at start of decade
Source Analysis of ONS LS data (earlier decades
from Glaser Grundy 1998)
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Proportion () of people aged 65 and over who
remained at same address in same
family/household type at succeeding censuses
1971-81 1981-91 1991-2001 by age and
family/household type at start of decade
Source Analysis of ONS LS data (earlier decades
from Glaser Grundy 1998)
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Results of logistic regression model of
proportions making a transition from a private to
an institutional household 1991-2001
OR 95 CI P
Age 1.14 1.13-1.15
Gender (ref. male) 1.14 1.02-1.27
Marital status in 2001 (ref. married)
Never-married 5.92 4.84-7.24
Wid./div. 3.63 3.10-4.25
Tenure in 1991 (ref. owner)
Not owner 1.24 1.13-1.15
Long term illness in 2001 (ref none) 9.35 7.63-11.46
Long term illness in 1991 (ref none) 1.26 1.14-1.38
Region in 1991 (ref South)
Central 0.93 0.81-1.05 NS
North 1.15 1.03-1.27
Wales 0.94 0.77-1.15 NS
Plt0.05 Plt0.001
Source Analysis of ONS Longitudinal Study data
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of women aged 65 in 1991 in a communal
establishment by 2001 and odds of transition to a
communal establishment by parity.
Odds ratios (95 CI)
changing from private
household in 1991 to communal establishment by
2001
Source Analysis of ONS Longitudinal Study data
controlling for age, marital status, household
type in 1991, health indicators and housing
tenure.
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of women and men who were in private households
in 1991 but in communal establishments in 2001 by
age group and grouped region in 1991
Men
Women
Source Analysis of ONS Longitudinal Study
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Workplan survey analysis

• ELSA analysis Waves 1 and 2, and also 3.
• Analysis of links c. family contact and contacts
  with friends and social participation more
  generally.
• Numbers a constraint.