Donor Technical Meeting

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MTS 2016 2021 Process MTS Workshop 23 May 2013
Slide 1
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Outline

• MTS Process Calendar and Deliverables
  Objectives of the discussion
• The scope of the MTS and relationship with other
  Strategic exercises
• Situational analysis
• Macro-environment
• The Refugee profile
• Agency Cost drivers (mainly staff numbers and
  salaries)
• Income
• Vision
• Next steps

Slide 2
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Calendar, Related Strategic Processes, Scope of
the MTS
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Calendar (1/2)
STAGE 1 May June 2013 (Consultation with
senior management and external stakeholders
development of an MTS Outline and
calendar) Situational analysis / assumptions
(macro environment refugee profile cost
drivers income) Vision developed Calendar for
MTS development STAGE 2 July 2013 January
2014 (Programmatic/operational strategic
response deepened consultation, continued
participation in related strategic planning
processes, and development of a MTS
Blueprint) Log-frame development Goals/Strategic
Objectives determined.  Identification of key
indicators (goal/objective level) High-level
implications of new vision on programmes,
operations, structures. Review of
partnerships Risk analysis conducted
Slide 4
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Calendar (2/2)
STAGE 3 February March 2014 (Validation by new
CG updating building blocks) Internal and
external consultations Testing/revalidation of
assumptions/ scenarios. Risk management plans
developed 'Costing / Valuation' of the
MTS   STAGE 4 April June 2014
(Finalization) Drafting, finalization,
publication of the MTS Design operational/manageme
nt reform plans for the period July 2014
December 2015 STAGE 5 July 2014 December
2015 (Preparation) Complete log-frame,
indicators, methodology of measurement.
Programmatic and Organizational
Reforms Organizational reforms Biennium
Implementation Plans and Budgets for 2016 -
2017   STAGE 6 2016 - 2021 (Implementation)
Slide 5
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Related Strategic processes

• Post 2015 Development Agenda
• MDGs still resonate as essential building blocks
• Need to improve, deepen, refine Focus on
  quality
• Inequality must be addressed. More disaggregation
  of data required.
• More integrated approaches.
• Environmental sustainability.
• More ambitious, universal and transformational
  development agenda required.
• Need to retain measurability and clarity.
• Other global processes
• UN System Wide Action Plan on Gender
• UN System Wide Action Plan on Youth
• National Development Plans and UNDAF
• National Development Plans are important
  references for UNRWA.
• UNRWA is a member of UNCTs, and is involved with
  UNDAF on issues/matters of common
  interest/intervention.

Slide 6
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MTS what it is and what it is not
Must be ambitious but not overly
aspirational Must inform/guide decision-making,
planning and programming Includes Vision,
Strategic Objectives, Indicators and Targets,
Risk analysis, Relationship to other actors
(partnerships) Includes key projects or areas
for project interventions (as opposed to
GF-funded). Includes commitment to Emergency
Response Capacity Includes emergency
interventions where the context foresees
continuation of an emergency/crisis throughout
the strategic period. Excludes reference to
management reforms/initiatives already underway
and due for completion prior to the Strategic
period Will guide adjustments to management
systems to facilitate MTS implementation.
Slide 7
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Developing a Strategic Plan
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Developing a strategic plan

• Four main factors to be taken into account as a
  basis for strategic planning
• Macro-environmental factors (political, security,
  economic etc) only insofar as they relate to
  UNRWA.
• The Refugee Profile the high-level needs of the
  refugees
• The Cost of Operating (mainly salaries and
  numbers of employees)
• The income we receive

Slide 9
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Macro-environment
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Macro-environment
The Agency cannot create a medium-term strategy
around a scenario or based on assumptions that
are not considered realistic by external
stakeholders. This can be a challenging and
politically-sensitive task. It is important that
the Agency receive the guidance of the Advisory
Commission membership on arriving at an agreed
and acceptable strategic planning option, with an
understanding of contingencies/ adaptability
based on realistic risks and opportunities.
Slide 11
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Macro-environment
Regional Limited hope of a political solution
to the plight of refugees. Region will
continue to be characterized by on-going tension
and conflict, requiring UNRWA to engage in
different levels of human development, recovery
and humanitarian activities. Challenge will
remain to mobilize sufficient resources to enable
UNRWA to achieve goals and targets on all three
levels human development, recovery,
humanitarian.
Slide 12
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Macro-environment

• West Bank
• Continues to experience crisis with economic,
  social, political, institutional and humanitarian
  dimensions.
• The political climate not expected to change
  dramatically, either positively or negatively
  regarding the needs of the refugees or UNRWAs
  operations.
• High unemployment rates and food insecurity
  expected to continue among Palestine refugees.
• Access and permit restrictions within the camps
  could lead to higher incidence of poverty.
• Syria
• Widespread instability experienced in 2013 may be
  quelled during the MTS period.
• The Agencys operations will be focused on
  humanitarian interventions, repatriation,
  reconstruction/recovery interventions and
  eventually to a return to human development
  operations.
• The Agencys ability to make significant headway
  on programmatic reforms (apart from those
  focusing on improved emergency response) during
  the early part of the MTS period will be modest.
  
• Should hostilities cease, developmental needs of
  the refugees in almost all respects will be
  higher than prior to the conflict.

Slide 13
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Macro-environment

• Gaza
• Gaza remains physically and economically isolated
  from the West Bank and its neighbours.
• An economic blockade largely in place continues
  to affect movement of people and goods.
• This may pose challenges to poverty mitigation
  programming.
• Lack of opportunity and experience in a young and
  growing population with high unemployment may
  have an effect on utility of Human Development
  activities.
• The security environment continues to be
  characterized by periods of relative calm,
  punctuated with conflict.
• Political engagement, and humanitarian and
  reconstruction assistance continue to provide
  some elements of stability.
• Food insecurity is assumed to remain in the
  40-60 range and unemployment in the 30-50 range
  during the planning period.
• Demographic projections indicate a continued and
  increasing need for humanitarian assistance in
  the form of food and cash-for-work and other
  programmes.

Slide 14
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Macro-environment

• Lebanon
• Lebanon will continue to host refugees seeking
  safety from the conflict in Syria for as long as
  it continues.
• UNRWA will continue to be focused on humanitarian
  interventions more than on-going programmatic
  reforms.
• UNRWA will be able to resume full programmatic
  interventions when the conflict in Syria ceases
  and Palestine Refugees from Syria can return
  voluntarily.
• Nahr el Bared Camp (NBC) Reconstruction
  continues as priority more than half of the
  camp will be completed prior to the MTS period.
• Displaced NBC residents will continue to depend
  primarily on UNRWA to address their more acute
  relief needs.
• Infrastructure and shelter needs will remain high
  within refugee camps.
• The political landscape will continue to
  challenge the rights of Palestine refugees
  prolonging existing protection gaps.
• Poverty and food insecurity amongst the refugee
  population will continue to be high.

Slide 15
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Macro-environment

• Jordan
• Expected that Jordan will continue to host the
  largest numbers of registered Palestine refugees
  in UNRWAs area of operations.
• Those who live in refugee camps will remain
  dependent on UNRWA for human development
  services.
• UNRWA will continue to address humanitarian
  interventions to those PRS who have fled from
  Syria, for as long as the Syrian crisis
  continues.
• Domestic reforms will continue in an environment
  where tensions among communities, including
  Palestine Refugees, may increase.

Slide 16
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Summary from Day 1
More detail required of consultations to be
carried out in Stage 2 (July November) Need to
better define the deliverables over the coming
months including the November AdCom (including
annotated Table of Contents). Will be discussed
further this afternoon.  
The description of the macro-environment in
Jordan needs to be revised to exclude mention of
domestic reforms, and to make clear that UNRWAs
services are not restricted to refugees in
refugee camps. The macro-environment
descriptions need to be consistent insofar as
they refer to the situation vs the Agencys
operations.  
Slide 17
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Summary from Day 1 (cont)
Regarding the relationship of the MTS with the
Agencys emergency/humanitarian work - MTS
should deal with the Agencys core human
development programmes. - Need to include the
importance of having capacity in the Agency to
respond to chronic or acute emergency situations.
This capacity should be built around the
Agencys strengths in humanitarian response.
Mention of capacity building. - The Agencys
response in emergencies can/should be guided by
principles set out in the MTS. - It must be
clear that the Agencys General Fund and core
project streams should not be used to fund
emergency interventions.  
Slide 18
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Outline

• MTS Process Calendar and Deliverables
  Objectives of the discussion
• The scope of the MTS and relationship with other
  Strategic exercises
• Situational analysis
• Macro-environment
• The Refugee profile
• Agency Cost drivers (mainly staff numbers and
  salaries)
• Income
• Vision
• Next steps

Slide 19
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Cautionary Note
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Forecasting the future

• Cautionary note Challenges/dangers of relying
  on past trends to forecast the future.
• Unreliability of old statistics
• Uncomparability of statistics
• Past trends need to be subjected to great
  scrutiny and understood in detail before they can
  be reliable indicators of the future.
•  

Slide 21
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Forecasting the future (cont.)

• Examples of the difficulty of relying on the past
  for making future predictions
• The inclusion of Married-to-Non-Refugee (MNR)s
  in 2010 (a policy change that was endorsed by the
  Advisory Commission) in all Fields other than
  Jordan resulted in a dramatic spike in new
  registrations. This distorts the 10 year
  average.
• Registered refugee numbers are higher (some
  cases, like Lebanon, significantly so) than
  actual resident refugees. Forecasting the future
  by applying past percentages using the
  Registered population will give exaggerated
  results.
• Staff numbers experienced a significant, one-off
  (and not-to-be-repeated), increase in 2009
  largely as a result of the decision in Gaza Field
  to reduce average class sizes from 1 teacher 50
  students to 1 teacher 40 students. This
  decision was made in response to a perceived
  crisis in educational quality standards and was,
  by and large, endorsed by all external
  stakeholders.
• Education and Health historical figures may not
  be entirely accurate. The Agency is still in the
  process of developing and rolling-out information
  management systems for Health Centres and
  Schools.
• A change in accounting standards (UNSAS to IPSAS)
  in 2010 2011 2012 make it impossible to
  compare non-staff expenditure in the period prior
  with the period after.
•  

Slide 22
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Refugee Profile
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Refugee profile
Demographics JFO LFO SFO WBFO GFO Agency
10-yr ave growth registered 02-11 2.1 12 2.11m 1.9 0.474m 2.6 0.528m 3.6 0.895m 3.5 1.26m 2.7 5.2m
Host popn growth 2.2 (2010) 0.70 (2011) 2.0 (2010) 2.6 (2012) 3.5 (2012) -
2021 projected reg. 2012-21 ? 2.54m .434m 0.561m .087m 0.666m .137m 1.23m .335m 1.72m .458m 6.7m 1.5m?
2012 Gender Female 49.0 Male 51.0 48.8 51.2 51.4 48.6 49.5 50.5 49.1 50.9 49.3 50.6
Ages 6-14 (basic ed.) 2021 projected 19.4 492,994 12.8 71,859 16.1 107,402 17.6 217,623 20.4 352,390 18.4 1,234,943 (increase of 227,000)
Ages 15-24 (youth) 2021 projected 19.6 498,143 17.4 97,630 17.5 116,995 10.1 124,829 21.5 371,178 19.7 1,321,356 (increase of 295,000)
Infant mortality rate Host IMR 22.6 18 19.0 8 28.2 13 19.5 18.2 20.2 22.4 22.0 -
Host literacy rate Host life expectancy 89.1 73 89.6 73 89.1 76 91.9 71 91.9 71 - -
Slide 24
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Agency Cost Drivers
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Agency Cost Drivers
Three main drivers of cost - Numbers of
Staff employed - Cost of Staff (salaries) -
Key non-staff costs
Slide 26
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Numbers of Staff Employed
JFO LFO SFO WBFO GFO Agency
10-yr ave. staff ? Refugees ? 01-11 1.7 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.8 2.6 2.5 3.5 5.1 3.5 3.2 2.7
Pupil enrolment ? Education staff 01-11 -1.5 1.2 -2.7 2.6 0.1 2.8 -1.0 2.3 1.7 5.2 0.0 3.1
Education costs ? vs. with reform 11-21 US19m US14m
Health visits ? Health staff 01-11 2.9 2.1 2.1 0.9 0.0 2.4 5.2 3.4 4.9 6.5 3.4 4.0
Health direct costs ? vs. with reform 11-21 10.1 6.4 31.4 16.2 24.9 14.1 14.4 6.6 8.3 2.7 14.6 7.5
Ave. change of G10 S10 salary 3.97 6.98 8.3 4.3 3.42 5.39
Consumer Price Index 02-11 4.9 3.8 6.5 4.5 4.5 5.0
Purchase Orders (12) 876 815 699 1,131 1,717 5,238
Slide 27
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Workforce Trends
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Staff vs Refugees (cumulative growth)
Slide 29
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Staff vs Refugees (cumulative growth)
Slide 30
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Staff vs Refugees (cumulative growth)
Slide 31
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Teachers vs Refugees (cumulative growth)
Slide 32
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Teachers vs Refugees (cumulative growth)
Slide 33
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Teachers vs Refugees (cumulative growth)
Slide 34
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Health Staff vs Refugees (cumulative growth)
Slide 35
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Health Staff vs Refugees (cumulative growth)
Slide 36
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Health Staff vs Refugees (cumulative growth)
Slide 37
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Sanitation vs Refugees (cumulative growth)
Slide 38
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Sanitation vs Refugees (cumulative growth)
Slide 39
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Sanitation vs Refugees (cumulative growth)
Slide 40
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Projections
Slide 41
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Staff Salaries
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Staff Salaries
average change of a grade 10, step 10 salary
(2002-2013) .
Slide 43
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Staff Salaries
average change of a grade 10, step 10 salary
(2002-2013) .
Slide 44
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Staff Salaries
average change of a grade 10, step 10 salary
(2002-2013) .
Slide 45
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Staff Salaries
average change of a grade 10, step 10 salary
(2002-2013) .
Slide 46
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Percentage of Salary Increases - Agency Wide
2000-2012
Slide 47
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total compensation package Salaries and
Supplementary Allowance given to select levels /
occupations, mainly health and sanitation
services to reach comparator levels.
Comment The above demonstrates that the
opportunity exists in some Fields for the Agency
to apply new methods in the application of the
existing Pay policy to not give comparable
increases in salary vis a vis host countries
while still remaining above the comparator.
Source HRD, UNRWA-Donor Compensation Briefing, 7
April 2013
Slide 48
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education cost drivers
Slide 49 of 16
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health cost drivers
COMMENT Reduction resulting, in part, from the
purchase of cheaper medications from Syrian
sources
Slide 50 of 16
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GF Cash Flow 2010 - 2013
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Cash flow 2010 - 2013
UNRWA Cash Flows UNRWA Cash Flows UNRWA Cash Flows UNRWA Cash Flows UNRWA Cash Flows
      Amount in m Amount in m
  2010 2011 2012 2013
  Actual Actual Actual F/C
Opening Balance 18.1 79.5 32.9 6.5
         
Cash Inflows        
         
Donor Inflows 531.0 494.1 529.0 510.2
PSC 21.5 26.2 21.9 20.0
Other Income 17.3 3.6 1.8 0.8
         
Total Cash Inflows 569.8 523.9 552.7 531.0
         
Outflows        
         
GFO (192.7) (198.6) (212.3) (203.9)
LFO (69.5) (69.8) (76.4) (83.3)
SFO (43.0) (48.0) (48.6) (41.4)
JFO (109.6) (101.6) (119.3) (126.4)
WBFO (88.7) (95.7) (94.0) (93.7)
Others (4.9) (56.9) (28.5) (55.5)
         
Total Outflows (508.4) (570.5) (579.1) (604.2)
         
Surplus/Deficit 79.5 32.9 6.5 (66.7)
Slide 52 of 16
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Cash flow 2010 - 2013
Summary of cash flows Summary of cash flows Summary of cash flows
Year 2010 2011 2012 2013
  Actual Actual Actual F/C
Inflows 570 524 553 531
Outflows 508 571 579 604
From April 2013 Forecast, i.e cash deficit - 67m
See next slide
Slide 53 of 16
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Cash flow 2010 - 2013
  2010 1. There was an foreign exchange (FX)
gain of 18m which decreased cash outflows. 2.
There was a one-off prior period adjustment of
14m which also served to decrease cash outflows.
  2011 3. There was an additional 14m cash
outflow because of the appreciation of the NIS.
4. Increased staff costs added a further 9m.
Slide 54 of 16
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GF income projections historical funding trends

• Separate Presentation

56
summary of morning discussions
57
Summary of morning discussions
It is difficult to predict the future. The hosts
have made a couple red lines clear. Universal
access to schools and health centres. Must
deliver quality services. Emergency activities
must not compete for limited GF resources.
Salaries for teachers, health staff and
sanitation staff will continue to be the main
part of the Agencys budget. The number of
staff will continue to grow because the main
driver number of refugees is growing. The
pace of increase will depend on several factors.
Although opportunity exists to adjust the way in
which the Agency applies its pay policy to reduce
the financial pain, the cost of a large workforce
will grow. Non-staff costs are expected to grow
but opportunities exist with partners including
some hosts (e.g., solid waste, rent). We can
make quality improvements using the staff we
have. But cost efficiencies from the reforms
will not be enough to solve the financial
problems.
Slide 57
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Summary of morning discussions
There is no one-size fits all solution to the
problem. We can do more on resource
mobilization but it will be difficult to achieve
the optimistic funding scenario without changing
the product being sold. Selling education and
health alone will not be enough. We need more
money for the General Fund and core projects to
ensure we are providing quality education and
quality health accessible to all refugees.
Provided that the financial crisis does not
force short-term dramatic changes, we have the
time to make strategic shifts. Strategic goals
need to be set that will help resource
mobilization efforts.
Slide 58
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Vision and Goals for the Strategic Period
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Vision vs Goals
Vision Aspirational. Reflective of the
Agencys mandate. Strategic Goals What,
concretely, do we want to be achieved by 2021?
Slide 60
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Vision

• The Agencys vision is for every Palestine
  refugee to enjoy the best possible standards of
  human development, especially
• attaining his or her potential individually and
  as a family and community member
• being an active and productive participant in
  socio-economic and cultural life and
• feeling assured that his or her rights are being
  defended, protected and preserved.
• Does this adequately describe what the Agency
  stands for?
• Has poverty mitigation grown as an imperative to
  frame existing activities in the foreseen context?

Slide 61
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Goals for the current (2009 2015) MTS Period

• A long and healthy life
• Acquired knowledge and skills
• A decent standard of living
• Human rights enjoyed to the fullest extent
  possible.
• Should these goals be revisited, and/or other
  goals added to capture on-going emergency and
  universality?

Slide 62
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Some questions to guide discussion
Possible inclusion of a commitment to universal
access to quality Basic Education and to quality
Basic Health. Definition of Basic Health is
it clear? Is there a need to be more specific
about the areas of priority intervention e.g.,
non-communicable diseases. What does it mean to
provide access to quality Education and Health?
Possible need to reflect on the Agencys role
in mitigating poverty. Need to include specific
target groups to suit the Agencys
strengths? Reference to Youth?
Emergency-prepared and Emergency-ready.
Reference to the advancement of refugee rights?
Slide 63
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Next Steps
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Next Steps for June AdCom

• June AdCom
• Assumptions/scenario on macro environment
• Cost drivers trends and forecasts.
• Income projections
• Mandate, vision, strategic goals for the
  Strategic Period.
• Proposed components of strategic goals or
  possible strategic goals themselves.
• MTS Calendar now to 31 December 2015

Slide 65
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Next Steps for November AdCom

• Deliverables for November AdCom
• - Develop High Level Logical Framework
  (Objectives, Indicators, Baselines, Targets)
• Programmatic response and reform (how operations
  would be adjusted to a new set of objectives)
• Organizational structures/systems and reform
• Partnerships
• Risk Analysis
• Preliminary Costing
• Consultations
• Internal management
• External stakeholders
• - Refugees

Slide 66
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Costing the MTS

• What is required to provide a cost of the MTS?
  
• What we are trying to achieve. What targets are
  we setting for ourselves.
• Costing some elements of the MTS is relatively
  easy.
• Costing needs also to include core
  complementary projects.

Slide 67