Uppsala,

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A short introduction into downscaling

• Hans von Storch
• Institute for Coastal ResearchGKSS Research
  CenterGermany

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• Overview
• The perspective of anthropogenic climate change
  - needs for studying the sensitivity of the
  global system, and
• - the needs for adaptation on the regional and
  local scale.
• Tools to do so Global quasi-realistic climate
  models.
• Limitation in spatial resolution.
• Need for Downscaling empirical and dynamical.

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The expectation of anthropogenic climate change
little doubt left. Different scenarios describing
plausible, possible and different futures.
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TAR-Consensus on precip change in 2100
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• Response adaptation and mitigation
• Mitigation (reduction of emissions) as much a we
  can afford (economically, socially) long term
  effort long term gains international efforts
• Adaptation to present extreme events short
  term effort, local effort useful if future
  extreme events are getting worse.

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Dynamical / empirical downscaling
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2 Examples
Dynamical Downscaling
RockelWoth
Empirical Downscaling
2?CO2
Maakvon Storch
control
Projected change of flowering date of Galantis
Nivalis in Northern Germany (days)
Change in total number of storm peak events (in
) from 1961-1990 to 2071-2100 simulated by a
RCM/A2
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• And now
• Frederik Wetterhall
• on
• Statistical downscaling
• of precipitation in Sverige och China