????????????,?????????????????????????,?????????????CNBC?????? - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Title:

????????????,?????????????????????????,?????????????CNBC??????

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ITOCHU CORP. 8031 JT Equity . MITSUI & CO LTD. 8035 JT Equity . ... TOHOKU ELECTRIC POWER CO INC. 9531 JT Equity . TOKYO GAS CO LTD. 9532 JT Equity . – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: ????????????,?????????????????????????,?????????????CNBC??????


1
???????????????????
???? ???????? 2007?12?7?
2
????(???)?????????????????????
  • ????????,????????????????,????????????
  • 1993??????????????????????????????????1994????????
    ???(?????????),???????????????????1998????????????
    ??????????
  • 1999?10???????????,??????????????????????????2001?
    ????????????2003?,???????,??????????????QFII??????
    ??????1????????????????,??????????????????????????
    ???????A????????????????????QFII???,??????????????
    ??A????????????????,???????????????QFII?????????
    ????????5??
  • ????????????,?????????????????????????,???????????
    ??CNBC????????A???????,?????????????

3
  • ??????
  • ??????,
  • ?????????????????

4
??????
5
2008???2010?????????????
6
????????????()
????Bloomberg???????????,???????????????-CPI?
7
????????????????
  • 07????????????????,???GDP????????1.7
    (??????????????????????),???,?????????2.5
    ,??????????3.4 ??(2006?,????3.7)?
  • ???GIC?????GDP??????????????1.0-1.5 SAAR
    ,????????????1.5-2.0????????????????????????????
    ????
  • ????1) ??????4????25???,????1?????50???, 2)
    ECB?????,3) BOJ?07??1?????25????4)
    BOE????????????????
  • ??????????,?12??,???????????????106?1.50?
  • ?????GDP?2008????9,??????????GDP???????2007?11.5
    ????????GDP,????2008???????
  • ???????????????????????,???????????,????????????

8
??????
9
???????????
  • ????90?????,???????????????????????
  • ???2005???????(????????43 ,????1960????????,????
    ?1987-1989 ???????),??????????
  • ??????????,TOPIX??????????

??????????????
?? Bloomberg
10
????????,??/?????????
  • ?????????,?????3???????
  • 8???,??????,????????
  • ?????????????????????,????????????????????????????
    ????????
  • ????(10?26?),???????? MSCI??0,??10,??15?
  • ???????????????????????

??????????MSCI??????????? MSCI???????
?? Bloomberg, MSCI
11
?? 78 ??????????????/??
07?????,?????????
?????????????????? (?????)
?? 13
?? 14
?? 22
?? 3
?? 12
?? 50
?? 37
???????
12
?????????? -?????????NikkoCitigroup
13
?? ????????????
  • ????????????(????)?
  • ??????????,??,??????????????
  • ????2007?,???????(????)??????????????????
  • ?????/??????????
  • ??????????,??????????????SPE????????

??????????
????????,???BB??
SourceMOF
14
????????????????????
  • ??,????????,????,??????????
  • ??????????????????????
  • ??????????(???,????2?,????????),???/??????????????
  • ????????????????????????????,(??????),????????????
    ??,????????????

????????
?????????
15
???? ????? ?????
  • 1998?,???????LIBOR??????????
  • ??2007?,?????????????????????????????
  • ????,?????????????????,???????????????????????????
    ?

1998 3????????????????(LIBOR)???????????(TIBOR)
???2007?,?????.
?? Bloomberg, NAM ???
16
???? ??????
TOPIX????????
  • ?????1989?2003??????????2007?????????????20
    ,???8 ,???9 ?
  • ??????????????,????????????
  • TOPIX???????23,?????,????????????????????????????
    ?????????????
  • ?FY08-11,??????????????,??20????????,?????TOPIX??
    ???
  • ???2011??????????30(???????)?
  • 1.4??????? 10??JGB?? ?85?????????????

?03?5???,23 ?????
?? Datastream
17
??????????
2007????????
  • ???????????,??????????,??????????????
  • ???,?????????,?????????????????????
  • ?????????????????????????????????????????????
  • Sharp-Pioneer
  • JVC-Kenwood
  • Clarion-Hitachi
  • Pentax- Hoya
  • Daimaru-Matsuzakaya
  • Isetan- Mitsukoshi
  • Calpis-Ajinomoto
  • Nichiro - Maruha
  • Myojo- Nissin Foods
  • Fujiya- Yamazaki Baking
  • Mercian- Kirin
  • Qsai- NIF SMBC Ventures
  • Kagome- Asahi Beer
  • Sumisho Lease- Sumitomo Corp
  • JSAT- Skyperfect

?? Bloomberg
18
?????????????
  • ?????????????,8??????,9??????????
  • ?????????????5.6????,?07?3??4.3?????1.3???
  • 8?,???????????????????????

????,???BB???
?????TOPIX????,???BB???
?? TSE
19
?????????
????????? ?? vs. ??
  • ?????????????????,????????2004???,??????,?????????
    ??????,???,??????????
  • 2007?????????,??????????????????????(????????)????
    ??
  • ?????????????????,?????10,?????????????????,?????
    ???

?? BOJ
20
?????????,??????????
?? EAFE?? ???????
  • ???????????,???2003?????????,?????????????????
    ????????????
  • ???7?,??/????????????,?????/SWF????????????
  • 8?,??????????????
  • ??,??????????????????(???????)?

?? Goldman Sachs
??????????????(TSE)??
?? TSE
21
G-3 ????
  • ????????,??????(2008?????????),?????G-3?????,??,??
    ?????????
  • ???????,???????????,????????????????(????????????)
    ??????????????
  • ?????2008?IBES ????(EPS )????G-3??????,???,???????
    ???????(PER)?
  • ????????????????????????????

06 PER (IBES) 07 PER (IBES) 08 PER (IBES) 06 EPS ?? 07 EPS ?? 08 EPS ?? P/B ???? (??)
??MSCI 15.3 14.2 12.9 16 8 10 2.4 2.9
SP500 16.9 15.9 14.3 16 8 12 3.3 2.1
??MSCI 18.5 17.3 15.4 9 7 12 1.9 1.3
???????????,?????? ?MSCI??????(PER)???????????
?? MSCI , ????????,??10?19?
22
???????
  • 2007?,?????????(PER)???????????

?? Credit Suisse Securities
23
??????
  • ??
  • ????????
  • ???????????
  • ??
  • ????????
  • ?????????????????????
  • ??
  • ???????
  • ????? BRICs??????????
  • ????
  • ??
  • ?????????????
  • ???????????
  • ????????????,?????
  • ???,??????? ????????

24
??
  • ???????????,???????,??,?????(?????)??????????
  • ???????????,????????????????
  • ?????????????,????????????
  • ????,???????????????????
  • ???,?????????,???????
  • ???????????????????????????????????????????????
  • ??????????????????,???????????????????
  • ??,?????????????????,??????????????????

25
????????????
26
????????????????????
  • ??????SP 500?????NIKKEI 225????????????KOSPI
    200?????TWSE??? ??????????????10?30?90?125?250????
    ?????,????????????????????????????????????????????
    ??????????
  • ????????

27
??????????30?????????
  • ?????????SP????????????????,?????????????,?????
    ?????

???????????1?????????????1??????????????1??
????Bloomberg
28
??????????250?????????
  • SP????????????,????80??????????????????????????
    ????????????,???????????????,????150?????????????
    ?????????????????????

???????????1?????????????1??????????????1??
????Bloomberg
29
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30
?? ????
31
??????QFII??????
  • 2003?12? ????????????????QFII?????????
  • 2004?2? ?????????5000????????
  • 2004?3? ?????????????????????
  • 2004?9? ?????????2??????????,?????????
    ?????????????????????????????????????QFII,???QFII
    ?????????????????????????,???????????QFII?????????
    ????????????????????????A???,??QFII?????????????
  • 2005?2? ?????????????A????????
  • 2006?3? ????????A????????
  • 2006?5? ?????????2??????????
  • 2006?5? ?????????????A???
  • 2007?11? ?????????,????
  • 2008?? ???????????QFII??

32
????QFII A????---?????
  • ????A?????2005?2?28?????,????,????????200?
  • 2007?1?8????????????????????2006?????????(???)??
    ?,????2007????????????????

????????
33
QFII???? --100????300???--
?2007?3?
1 UBS Warburg Ltd., 800 Million USD 2 CitiGroup
Global Markets Ltd., 550 Million USD 3 CSFB 500
Million USD 4 Fortis Bank 500 Million USD 5 Nikko
Asset Management 450 Million USD
??????????????,????
34
??????????
???????
(??)
(??)
?????GDP(?????)???????(???)???(1952?1980?)
1980???1???
??????
????GDP(?????) ??? (2005?)
35,757??
??GDP (????,??????)
1,709??
1966???1???
??????(????,??????)
(??IMF ?International Financial Statistics?
?World Economic Outlook September
2006???????????????????)
??????GDP(?????)???IMF?????GDP(?????)?????????????
?????????????????????,????????????????????????????
??????????? ????????????,???????????
35
?????????
?2005???,???????A?????????,2005???????????????????
????????,??????????
???5??????????(??????)?
2002?10???100,?????
????????????,???????????
(????????????????)
36
???????????
2006???????????
37
????????
????????
1978? ?????? ??????????
1992? ??????? ?????????
2001? ??WTO ????????
80?? ?? ??
90?? ?? ??
2005? ?? ??
38
????????? ????????,?????????8.8,1960?????10.5 ?
??1950???????8.2??????1960??8.7 ?1970??9.6
?1980??9.1 ??1950???1960???1970?????????8.5?10
.0?9.2????1950???1960?????????9.2?9.0 ??????
??? ??Emerging China(????)????Reemerging
China(???????) ???? Angus Maddison?????????????18?
????,??????????????,?????????????Jared
Diamond?????1450???,??????????????????????????????
??????????????,???????????????,??1950?????????????
????2005?,?????????,?????????2??
??????,NAM
39
?????????
???
???
???
40
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