Title: ????????????,?????????????????????????,?????????????CNBC??????
1???????????????????
???? ???????? 2007?12?7?
2????(???)?????????????????????
- ????????,????????????????,????????????
- 1993??????????????????????????????????1994????????
???(?????????),???????????????????1998????????????
?????????? - 1999?10???????????,??????????????????????????2001?
????????????2003?,???????,??????????????QFII??????
??????1????????????????,??????????????????????????
???????A????????????????????QFII???,??????????????
??A????????????????,???????????????QFII?????????
????????5?? - ????????????,?????????????????????????,???????????
??CNBC????????A???????,?????????????
3- ??????
- ??????,
- ?????????????????
4??????
52008???2010?????????????
6????????????()
????Bloomberg???????????,???????????????-CPI?
7????????????????
- 07????????????????,???GDP????????1.7
(??????????????????????),???,?????????2.5
,??????????3.4 ??(2006?,????3.7)? - ???GIC?????GDP??????????????1.0-1.5 SAAR
,????????????1.5-2.0????????????????????????????
???? - ????1) ??????4????25???,????1?????50???, 2)
ECB?????,3) BOJ?07??1?????25????4)
BOE???????????????? - ??????????,?12??,???????????????106?1.50?
- ?????GDP?2008????9,??????????GDP???????2007?11.5
????????GDP,????2008??????? - ???????????????????????,???????????,????????????
8??????
9???????????
- ????90?????,???????????????????????
- ???2005???????(????????43 ,????1960????????,????
?1987-1989 ???????),?????????? - ??????????,TOPIX??????????
??????????????
?? Bloomberg
10????????,??/?????????
- ?????????,?????3???????
- 8???,??????,????????
- ?????????????????????,????????????????????????????
???????? - ????(10?26?),???????? MSCI??0,??10,??15?
- ???????????????????????
??????????MSCI??????????? MSCI???????
?? Bloomberg, MSCI
11?? 78 ??????????????/??
07?????,?????????
?????????????????? (?????)
?? 13
?? 14
?? 22
?? 3
?? 12
?? 50
?? 37
???????
12?????????? -?????????NikkoCitigroup
13?? ????????????
- ????????????(????)?
- ??????????,??,??????????????
- ????2007?,???????(????)??????????????????
- ?????/??????????
- ??????????,??????????????SPE????????
??????????
????????,???BB??
SourceMOF
14????????????????????
- ??,????????,????,??????????
- ??????????????????????
- ??????????(???,????2?,????????),???/??????????????
- ????????????????????????????,(??????),????????????
??,????????????
????????
?????????
15???? ????? ?????
- 1998?,???????LIBOR??????????
- ??2007?,?????????????????????????????
- ????,?????????????????,???????????????????????????
?
1998 3????????????????(LIBOR)???????????(TIBOR)
???2007?,?????.
?? Bloomberg, NAM ???
16???? ??????
TOPIX????????
- ?????1989?2003??????????2007?????????????20
,???8 ,???9 ? - ??????????????,????????????
- TOPIX???????23,?????,????????????????????????????
????????????? - ?FY08-11,??????????????,??20????????,?????TOPIX??
??? - ???2011??????????30(???????)?
- 1.4??????? 10??JGB?? ?85?????????????
?03?5???,23 ?????
?? Datastream
17??????????
2007????????
- ???????????,??????????,??????????????
- ???,?????????,?????????????????????
- ?????????????????????????????????????????????
- Sharp-Pioneer
- JVC-Kenwood
- Clarion-Hitachi
- Pentax- Hoya
- Daimaru-Matsuzakaya
- Isetan- Mitsukoshi
- Calpis-Ajinomoto
- Nichiro - Maruha
- Myojo- Nissin Foods
- Fujiya- Yamazaki Baking
- Mercian- Kirin
- Qsai- NIF SMBC Ventures
- Kagome- Asahi Beer
- Sumisho Lease- Sumitomo Corp
- JSAT- Skyperfect
?? Bloomberg
18?????????????
- ?????????????,8??????,9??????????
- ?????????????5.6????,?07?3??4.3?????1.3???
- 8?,???????????????????????
????,???BB???
?????TOPIX????,???BB???
?? TSE
19?????????
????????? ?? vs. ??
- ?????????????????,????????2004???,??????,?????????
??????,???,?????????? - 2007?????????,??????????????????????(????????)????
?? - ?????????????????,?????10,?????????????????,?????
???
?? BOJ
20?????????,??????????
?? EAFE?? ???????
- ???????????,???2003?????????,?????????????????
???????????? - ???7?,??/????????????,?????/SWF????????????
- 8?,??????????????
- ??,??????????????????(???????)?
?? Goldman Sachs
??????????????(TSE)??
?? TSE
21G-3 ????
- ????????,??????(2008?????????),?????G-3?????,??,??
????????? - ???????,???????????,????????????????(????????????)
?????????????? - ?????2008?IBES ????(EPS )????G-3??????,???,???????
???????(PER)? - ????????????????????????????
06 PER (IBES) 07 PER (IBES) 08 PER (IBES) 06 EPS ?? 07 EPS ?? 08 EPS ?? P/B ???? (??)
??MSCI 15.3 14.2 12.9 16 8 10 2.4 2.9
SP500 16.9 15.9 14.3 16 8 12 3.3 2.1
??MSCI 18.5 17.3 15.4 9 7 12 1.9 1.3
???????????,?????? ?MSCI??????(PER)???????????
?? MSCI , ????????,??10?19?
22???????
- 2007?,?????????(PER)???????????
?? Credit Suisse Securities
23??????
- ??
- ????????
- ???????????
- ??
- ????????
- ?????????????????????
- ??
- ???????
- ????? BRICs??????????
- ????
- ??
- ?????????????
- ???????????
- ????????????,?????
- ???,??????? ????????
24??
- ???????????,???????,??,?????(?????)??????????
- ???????????,????????????????
- ?????????????,????????????
- ????,???????????????????
- ???,?????????,???????
- ???????????????????????????????????????????????
- ??????????????????,???????????????????
- ??,?????????????????,??????????????????
25????????????
26????????????????????
- ??????SP 500?????NIKKEI 225????????????KOSPI
200?????TWSE??? ??????????????10?30?90?125?250????
?????,????????????????????????????????????????????
?????????? - ????????
27??????????30?????????
- ?????????SP????????????????,?????????????,?????
?????
???????????1?????????????1??????????????1??
????Bloomberg
28??????????250?????????
- SP????????????,????80??????????????????????????
????????????,???????????????,????150?????????????
?????????????????????
???????????1?????????????1??????????????1??
????Bloomberg
29(No Transcript)
30?? ????
31??????QFII??????
- 2003?12? ????????????????QFII?????????
- 2004?2? ?????????5000????????
- 2004?3? ?????????????????????
- 2004?9? ?????????2??????????,?????????
?????????????????????????????????????QFII,???QFII
?????????????????????????,???????????QFII?????????
????????????????????????A???,??QFII?????????????
- 2005?2? ?????????????A????????
- 2006?3? ????????A????????
- 2006?5? ?????????2??????????
- 2006?5? ?????????????A???
- 2007?11? ?????????,????
- 2008?? ???????????QFII??
32????QFII A????---?????
- ????A?????2005?2?28?????,????,????????200?
- 2007?1?8????????????????????2006?????????(???)??
?,????2007????????????????
????????
33QFII???? --100????300???--
?2007?3?
1 UBS Warburg Ltd., 800 Million USD 2 CitiGroup
Global Markets Ltd., 550 Million USD 3 CSFB 500
Million USD 4 Fortis Bank 500 Million USD 5 Nikko
Asset Management 450 Million USD
??????????????,????
34??????????
???????
(??)
(??)
?????GDP(?????)???????(???)???(1952?1980?)
1980???1???
??????
????GDP(?????) ??? (2005?)
35,757??
??GDP (????,??????)
1,709??
1966???1???
??????(????,??????)
(??IMF ?International Financial Statistics?
?World Economic Outlook September
2006???????????????????)
??????GDP(?????)???IMF?????GDP(?????)?????????????
?????????????????????,????????????????????????????
??????????? ????????????,???????????
35?????????
?2005???,???????A?????????,2005???????????????????
????????,??????????
???5??????????(??????)?
2002?10???100,?????
????????????,???????????
(????????????????)
36???????????
2006???????????
37????????
????????
1978? ?????? ??????????
1992? ??????? ?????????
2001? ??WTO ????????
80?? ?? ??
90?? ?? ??
2005? ?? ??
38????????? ????????,?????????8.8,1960?????10.5 ?
??1950???????8.2??????1960??8.7 ?1970??9.6
?1980??9.1 ??1950???1960???1970?????????8.5?10
.0?9.2????1950???1960?????????9.2?9.0 ??????
??? ??Emerging China(????)????Reemerging
China(???????) ???? Angus Maddison?????????????18?
????,??????????????,?????????????Jared
Diamond?????1450???,??????????????????????????????
??????????????,???????????????,??1950?????????????
????2005?,?????????,?????????2??
??????,NAM
39?????????
???
???
???
40(No Transcript)