Climate Change - Meteorologists in Action

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Climate Change- Meteorologists in Action

• C Y Lam
• Hong Kong Observatory

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Paris, 2 February 2007

• IPCC The evidence for human-caused global
  warming is now unequivocal.
• Now accepted by most, taken for granted
• But, it has taken three decades to reach this
  position.

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The 30-year Journey
380 ppm
330 ppm
(background figure after IPCC, 2007)
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WMO Meteorologists

• Rational approach data research
• Engagement partners stakeholders, impacts
  responses
• Community level attitude change, teach preach

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1st WMO statement, 1976

• Carbon dioxide 330 ppm
• Accumulation of carbon dioxide potential impact
  on climate vs natural variability
• Food as key issue, other disruptions too

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1st World Climate Conference, 1979(WMO, UNEP,
FAO UNESCO, WHO)

• a gradual warming of the lower atmosphere
  appears plausible
• some effects . detectable before the end of
  this century
• Declaration urgent actions to improve knowledge
  and to foresee prevent potential man-made
  changes

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WMO World Climate Programme, 1979

• Data
• Applications
• Research
• Impacts on human activities

Multiple international partners
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Data

• WMO Global Observing System based on national
  meteorological services
• WMO Global Atmospheric Watch specialized
  network to measure atmospheric composition
• Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), 1992
  WMO, IOC-UNESCO,UNEP, ICSU
• 380 ppm, 0.74C/100 years (IPCC, 2007)

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Research

• World Climate Research Programme, 1985
• WMO, ICSU, IOC-UNESCO
• Large scale projects, all climate components
• Underpins UNFCCC IPCC assessments

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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change WMO
UNEP,1988

• Assessment reports based on published literature,
  covering
• state of climate
• potential impact
• policy options in response
• 1st report, 1990 4th report 2007

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2nd World Climate Conference, 1990(WMO, UNEP,
UNESCO, IOC, FAO, ICSU)

• Carbon dioxide 350 ppm
• After 1st IPCC Assessment Report
• Ministerial Declaration
• noted unprecedented rate of climate change
  predicted by IPCC
• association with greenhouse gases
• call for negotiations ?UNFCCC 1992
• well-informed public

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The Long Journey

20ppm
(background figure after IPCC, 2007)
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30 years after 1st WMO Statement

• IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
• warming of the climate system is unequivocal
• very likely due to the observed increase in
  anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations

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The Long Journey
unequivocal after 50 ppm

? 30-year wait ?
(background figure after IPCC, 2007)
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Current general acceptance of human-induced
climate change

• It came about not by accident
• But by meteorologists
• sounding the alarm 30 years ago
• organizing observations research
• engaging partners stakeholders

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Reaching Out- Teach and Preach

• A well-informed public the responsibility of
  meteorological services working at the local
  level
• Must be based on
• Observations
• Understanding of the phenomenon
• Projections into the future

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Hong Kong Observatory

• Records since 1884
• Announced observed trends
• Also urbanization effects
• Projections for 21st century

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Relating to people

• People dont appreciate
• 3.5C rise in temperature in 21st century
• Temperature varies more than this in a day.
• What is the problem?

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No winter by the end of the century
Less than one cold day per winter.
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cold winter no more
Hong Kong, August 2004
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Reaching out to people
press conference
radio TV
open day
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The public green groups
public lectures
partnering with green groups
lectures for students
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Road blocks

• Low public interest relative to economic and
  social issues
• Lack of sense of being immediate and close
• Small city psychology, but actually 0.1 of
  world population

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More teaching and preaching

• Information on trend, potential impacts, basic
  causes and what people can do
• A matter of attitude and life style
• Education package school activities
• More partners

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Meteorologists not purely scientists

• We sounded the alarm now we should enable people
  to respond.
• Reach out, with clear message for people.
• Climate change is multi-disciplinary by nature
  engage full spectrum of partners.

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Another 30 years for action?
unequivocal after 50 ppm

? 30-year wait ?
(background figure after IPCC, 2007)
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WMO meteorologistswill act together with all
to stop the worlddrifting irreversibly into a
stateunsuitable for human habitation.We cannot
wait for another 30 years.