Climate Change Science and Impacts Refresh

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• Climate Change Science and Impacts - Refresh

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Natural factors cannot explain recent warming
1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5
Observed Model simulation
Temperature change ºC
1850 1900
1950 2000
Source Hadley Centre for ClimatePredication and
Research
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• Recent warming can be simulated when manmade
  factors are included

1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5
Observed Model simulation
Temperature change ºC
1850 1900
1950 2000
Source Hadley Centre for Climate Predication and
Research
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Global warming over next 40 years does not depend
on emissions scenarios
High emissions Medium-high Medium-low Low
emissions
Annual-mean temperature rise, deg C
Source Hadley Centre for Climate Predication and
Research
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Levels of atmospheric CO2 are higher than at any
time in the last 430,000 years
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European 2003 summer temperatures could be normal
by 2040s, cool by 2060s
observations Medium-High emissions
Temperature change, C
Source Peter Stott, Hadley Centre
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UNFCCC Bali 3-14th Dec 2007

• IPCC 2007 report made it clear beyond doubt that
  climate change is a reality
• Bali Mandate agree a timetable for future
  international action beyond Kyoto Protocol in
  2012
• Bali Outcomes - Adoption of Bali Roadmap
• Industrialised countries to reduce emissions by
  25 -40 by 2050
• EU committed to 20 by 2020
• Launch of adaptation fund
• Reducing emissions from deforestation

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UK Climate Change Bill

• First national legislative bill to tackle climate
  change
• Key Mitigation targets
• CO2 reduction at least 60 by 2050
• 5 year carbon budgets to set binding limits on
  CO2 emissions
• Enabling powers to introduce new trading schemes
• Climate Change Committee - expert body to advise
  Government
• Key Adaptation targets
• Requirement to assess risks to UK of impacts of
  climate change
• Publish programme on how it will address the
  likely impacts

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2050 Changes for the South West
Sea-level c. 45cm
rise Summer Warmer 1 to
3.5ºC, drier by 15 to 30 Winter
Milder by 1 to 2ºC, wetter by 5 to
15, snowfall decrease significantly.
Source WTI 2003, UKCIP
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Impacts on business and on business continuity
management
Brynteg Books, Winchcombe (Lucy Harvey)
http//news.bbc.co.uk 23.7.07
Bredon Road, Tewkesbury (David Whittle)
http//www.bbc.co.uk/gloucestershire
Slad Road, Stroud (Bernard Wakefield-Heath)
http//www.bbc.co.uk/gloucestershire
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• 24.8M - cost of damage to Gloucestershire roads
  (public), 6.3M cost of damage to other transport
  infrastructure (public)
• 14.3M - emergency repair and response costs for
  Gloucestershire businesses

Dymock http//www.bbc.co.uk/gloucestershire
http//news.bbc.co.uk 23.7.07
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Is there a Solution?

• MITIGATE the cause
• Action taken to specifically reduce the impact
  of human activity on the climate system,
  primarily through reducing net greenhouse gas
• ADAPT to the effects
• Changing behaviour, institutional arrangements
  or economic activity to adapt to either direct or
  indirect consequences of climate change.
• Ignoring climate change is not an option
• (Stern Review 2007)

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Adaptation

• Direct Adaptation
• Business A - assessment of current product in
  context of CC impacts
• Seasonal products demand directly affected by
  climate change
• Looking to changing the type and timing of
  products.
• The anticipation of a shift in product
  purchasing habits as a direct result of climate
  change driving companys adaptation response.
• Indirect Adaptation
• Business B - developing product extending its
  business offering by adapting opportunistically
  to emerging market demand
• Not direct response to impacts of CC, but
  indirect adaptation with a mitigation benefit
• Customers / market demand for mitigation
  solutions driving adaptation response.

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Mitigation

• Internal Mitigation
• Reducing the impact that you, your staff,
  buildings operations have on the environment.
• Reducing your GHG emissions by reducing your
  energy consumption, being more resource efficient
  etc
• External Mitigation
• Reducing impact of products or services on the
  environment i.e. how marketed, distributed, used,
  disposed of
• Involve shipping processes, packaging style,
• Products that allows customers to mitigate their
  emissions through products use (as in Business B)

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• If you think youre too small to make a
  difference,
• try going to bed with a mosquito
• Find out more www.oursouthwest.com/climate

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Marketing Models Climate Change
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Marketing Planning Process
Stage I Environment analysis, STEP/ PEST
Stage II Audit of capability, SWOT
Stage III Set marketing objectives
Stage IV Develop marketing strategy/ plans
Strategy New products New markets Change direction
Macro analysis Social/ cultural/
Economic/Political/ Legal Micro
Micro analysis Internal capability Macro
environment Customers/ competition
Possible objectives Profitability Survival Growth
Stage V Marketing Tactics
Marketing mix Product, price, place, promotion,
people, physical evidence, process
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Climate Change Marketing Review Process
Stage I Environmental analysis, PESTLE
Stage III Audit of capability, SWOT
Stage IIb Climate Review The Green Ps
Stage IIa Climate Review BACLIAT
Macro analysis Social/ Cultural/ Economic/
Environmental/ Political/ Legal
Micro analysis Internal capability Macro
environment Customers/ competition
Climate friendly analysis Green Marketing
mix Internal Ps/ External Ps Ss of Success The Rs
of Climate Change
Climate proof analysis Internal review External
review
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Stage I External audit Climate Change PESTLE

• Political
• International responses trends to climate
  change e.g. IPCC reports, Kyoto agreement, BALI
  UNFCCC Honolulu intergovernmental meetings on
  climate change
• National responses trends e.g. Government
  commitment to 20 by 2010, 60 by 2050
• Regulators e.g. Who are the regulators? What
  power do they have?
• Politicians e.g. Who is driving or stalling the
  debate? Impact of individuals in power at
  international and national levels
•  

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Stage I External audit Climate Change PESTLE

• Economic
• World trends e.g. overall trends in use of
  fossil fuels, relative growth rates of developed
  and developing world, peak oil
• UK trends e.g. Stern review, current projected
  economic growth figures, fossil fuel security
• Industry trends Examples of current attitudes to
  climate change examples of adaptation and
  mitigation behaviours, business continuity
  planning measures
•  

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External AuditClimate Change PESTLE

• Social
• Cultural responses to climate change e.g.
  Transition towns, climate change
  movements, generational views
• Individual responses e.g. Attitudes and beliefs,
  psychological impacts, expectations
• Technological
• Implications of climate change e.g. switch to
  renewables, opportunities for new
  improved technologies, drive towards energy
  efficient, low carbon mitigating solutions

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External AuditClimate Change PESTLE

• Legislative
• European legislation e.g. EU CO2 emissions
  targets
• UK e.g. Provisions of the climate change bill
• Environmental
• Global e.g. Current global temperature and ppm
  CO2 figures, evidences of existing climate
  change impacts, long and short term trends,
  outlooks and outcomes of potential future
  scenarios
• National regional e.g. Impact of global
  changes at national and regional level,
  implications for raw material availability,
  flooding drought patterns and extreme
  weather activity

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Stage IIAHow Climate Proof are you?

• 7 key elements (BACLIAT)
• Logistics
• Finance
• Markets

• Process
• People
• Premises
• Management Implications

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Logistics

• What goods and services components are required
  to deliver your product (e.g. raw materials,
  components)?
• What is the potential impact of climate change
  on the above components?
• What impact could disruption to utilities have
  (e.g. supply vulnerability of water in drier,
  hotter summers)
• What is the potential impact on transport and
  delivery systems for goods and services both into
  and out of your organisation?

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Finance

• What are the financial implications of
  appropriate insurance covers?
• Are there potential cost-savings by climate
  proofing your organisation (such as reduced
  insurance premiums)?
• Is your organisation involved in anything that
  could lead to liabilities resulting from climate
  change impacts?
• - Previous products/ actions
• - Future products/ actions
• Are you confident that you will continue to
  present an attractive proposition to investors?

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Markets

• What products and/ or services will be demanded
  by future markets?
• What modified or new products will be best
  positioned to meet changing demands?
• What will your competition look like in light of
  climate change?
• E.g. potential of different market sectors
  competing for the same sector
• Are there potential new competitors emerging
  that are producing products
• or services specifically to meet climate change
  needs?
• Have you begun to include climate change in your
  market research or new product development?
• What new market sectors might be emerging?
• Do you want to be a pioneer or a follower?

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Process

• How will extreme weather conditions affect your
  ability to deliver your products or services?
• E.g. fewer frosts, but more extreme storms/
  rains etc.
• Will these climate changes offer the opportunity
  for different delivery processes?
• E.g. on-site client visits vs. indirect access
  to client sites via modern technologies

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People

• Will your staffs ability to come to work be
  impacted?
• Are there any opportunities for you to provide
  better and new, innovative working conditions for
  your staff?
• Impact on reputation as good employer
• Do changes in the climate require a different
  staff attitude? Have you assessed your workforce
  in that light?
• Is there any need for further/ different staff
  training to help ensure consistent, climate-ready
  behaviour across the organisation?
• Are staff able to get involved in
  climate-proofing the organisation and its
  products and services?

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Premises

• Are your premises built to withstand extreme
  weather conditions?
• Have you considered the need for climate control
  and its cost implications?
• e.g. air-conditioning
• Will there be an impact on staff productivity?
• e.g. buildings too hot to function in
• Do you have to house any animals/ livestock?
• Changes in climate will impact on style/ type
  of housing needed
• Are the premises of your key suppliers or your
  downstream retailers at risk from climate change?

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Management implications

• Do you take climate change into account during
  the business planning process?
• Includes policy development, long-term
  strategies
• Are you considering climate change when looking
  at business diversification?
• Are you/ is your management committed to
  climate-proofing your organisation?

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Stage IIbHow Climate friendly are you?

• Internal Green Ps
• Products
• Price
• Place
• Promotion
• People
• Physical Evidence
• Processes

• External Green Ps
• Paying customers
• Providers
• Politicians
• Pressure Groups
• Partners
• Problems
• Predictions

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Internal Green Ps
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Product

• What is the impact of your product or products on
  climate change?
• Where do the raw materials come from? What is
  the environmental impact of the manufacture of
  the materials used in the construction, are they
  from finite resources (e.g. oil) or from
  potential renewable sources (e.g. wool)?
• Do NPD design processes integrate environment
  and climate change issues?
• How and where is the product manufactured?What
  is the impact of manufacturing the product? e.g.
  is the process energy efficient, what waste and
  effluents result from the manufacture?

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Product

• Are your suppliers using energy efficiency and
  low carbon techniques?
• What packaging is used? What is it made of? How
  can it be disposed of? Are your products over
  packaged? Has the packaging been designed
  according to minimum environmental and climate
  impact criteria?
• Does the product use energy or other resources
  throughout its use by the end consumer? If so is
  it designed to be energy efficient?
• How long is it designed to last? What happens to
  it at the end of its life? How is it disposed of?
  Can the product be recycled after it has been
  used? (In an ideal world to have total
  sustainability, all materials should be
  recyclable and recycled. European legislation
  insists that for product such as cars and
  electrical/ electronic appliances, manufacturers
  must ensure that processes are in place for
  recycling them after their useful life has
  ended.)

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Place

• What is the climate impact of getting your
  product or service to your customers?
• What distribution system do you use (in-house and
  outsourced)?
• How many product/ service miles? How are
  deliveries made?
• What investment is being made (if any) in low
  carbon forms of transport?
• Are the physical methods of distribution energy
  efficient with minimal impact on the environment?
  Is packaging for transportation recyclable?
• Are warehouses and sales outlets environmentally
  sensitive in their construction, location and
  energy use?

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Price

• How is your pricing strategy connected to climate
  issues?
• What is the effect (if any) on pricing strategy
  of sourcing climate friendly raw materials or of
  changing to climate friendly marketing practices?
• Are consumers prepared to pay any additional
  costs? Is the climate friendliness of the
  product reflected in the customers valuation?
• Are current marketing practices cutting costs and
  prices at the expense of the environment and
  climate?
• What are the additional costs of greening the
  product?

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Promotion

• What impact do your promotional activities have?
• What promotional materials do you produce/have
  produced for you? What are they made of? Do you
  re-use or recycle promotional materials?
• Do you undertake direct mail?
• Are the messages for green and climate friendly
  attributes fully valid? Are the methods of
  promotion green? (There is no point in putting
  sustainable messages onto non-recyclable plastic
  signs or glossy handouts printed or non-recycled
  and non-recyclable paper).
• Does the company website provide relevant
  information to customers on environment climate
  change issues concerning the organisations
  products and services?

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People

• Environmentalism starts and ends with the values
  of people, both the employees and other key
  stakeholders (e.g. suppliers and customers). How
  does it work for you?
• How much do your organisations marketing staff
  know about and act on climate change issues
  within their work?
• Do staff receive any training on climate change
  or environmental issues as part of their
  understanding of how they deliver their work?
• Are environmental or climate related issues
  integrated into marketing job descriptions or
  built into marketing bonus and incentive schemes?
• Are customers provided with recycling
  facilities? e.g. printer companies now provide
  boxes or envelopes for recycling used printer
  cartridges)?

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Physical evidence

• It is not possible to tell from external
  observation if an egg is free range. So in this
  context environmentalism and green issues are
  like a service with intangible elements that need
  physical evidence to provide the consumer with
  the appropriate cues e.g. green imagery and
  packaging.
• What signage and other physical manifestations of
  service delivery do you have in this context?
• What are these materials made of?
• How and where are they manufactured and sourced?
• Do you have re-use or recycling policies in place
  where possible?

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Process

• Are your service system processes set up to
  address environmental and climate change issues?
• Does your company have an environmental policy?
• Do you have an internal environmental management
  system or are you accredited to ISO14001 or
  BS855?
• Are the companys procedures and policies
  consistent with green values? To take an
  internal marketing example, does the organisation
  promote green travel with supporting care share
  policies and schemes for its employees?

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External Green Ps
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Paying customers

• Are the customers green-informed and literate?
• What is their green agenda and how can the
  organisation meet their expectations at
  acceptable costs?

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Providers

• Organisations should not export their dirty
  washing.
• Do your suppliers of good and services also
  implement green climate friendly marketing
  policies?
• e.g. a manufacturer of hardwood furniture should
  ensure that its wood is obtained from
  appropriately managed forests and not obtained
  by illegal logging of endangered virgin rain
  forests

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Politicians

• Politicians at all levels international,
  national and regional are responding to
  pressure groups and the electorate by legislating
  for recycling and other green impact issues.
• Are you tracking political opinion and the
  emergence of new environmental and climate change
  related legislation regulation?

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Pressure groups

• Well-informed and marketing-astute pressure
  groups will provide organisations that do not
  observe the green imperatives with a succession
  of PR disasters such as Brent Spar (an oil
  company misjudged the public view of the disposal
  of an obsolete oil rig).
• What pressure groups (if any) have an interest in
  your sector?
• Are you aware of/involved with them?

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Partners

• Are your partners thinking the same way?
• Are your partners aligned to your climate change
  policies and strategies?
• Do they mirror your efforts?
• Are there opportunities to work together to
  support change across partner organisations?

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Problems

• Has the organisation been linked to an
  eco-disaster such as an oil company responsible
  for a massive oil spill?
• Does the organisation have PR crisis management
  measures in place related to environment and
  climate change issues?

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Predictions

• Certain elements of environmental policies are
  based on forecasting outcomes such as global
  warming.
• What role does climate change forecasting
  currently play in the organisations marketing
  planning?

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Climate Change SWOT
Internal external green Ps climate
friendly analysis

• BACLIAT
• climate proof
• analysis

Strengths
Weaknesses
Threats
Opportunities
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Marketing mix

• If all the above Ps are given appropriate
  attention, the result should be the 4 Ss
• Satisfaction - of relevant stakeholder needs and
  legitimate expectations
• Safety - of the organisations processes and
  products throughout the products environmental
  lifecycle
• Social acceptability - companies that have been
  perceived to abuse the environment will face
  adverse publicity and their brand value (and thus
  shareholder value) will be affected
• Sustainability - reserves of metals and oil are
  finite and sustainable usage is essential for
  long-term survival. Failure to recognise this
  will result in economic failure e.g. the European
  fishing industries sharp decline caused by
  over-fishing.

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..or the 4 Rs of Climate Success

• Ready prepared for the impacts of a changing
  climate
• Resource efficient ensuring that existing
  products and processes cause minimal climate
  impact
• Responsive - internal systems and procedures are
  attuned to changing external circumstances and
  ready to respond accordingly
• Responsible issues of climate change and
  environment are firmly embedded in the
  organisations mission and operating strategy

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Toolkits terminology.ones to watch

• Peak oil Transition Towns
• Ecological footprinting
• Carbon footprinting the Envirowise Carbon
  Indicator Tool
• Carbon labelling
• Carbon offsetting
• ISO 14001 series and EMS systems
• Environmental communications guides

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Peak Oil (point of maximum global petroleum
production)
Hubberts Peak Graph
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Transition Towns

• Engaged people and communities taking the
  far-reaching actions that are required to
  mitigate the effects of Peak Oil and Climate
  Change.
• Specifically address the questions of how to
• significantly increase resilience (to mitigate
  the effects of Peak Oil) and
• drastically reduce carbon emissions (to mitigate
  the effects of Climate Change)
• Totnes was first in UK now more than 35
  Transition Town Initiatives and growing

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Ecological footprint

• The Ecological Footprint calculates how much
  productive land and sea is needed to provide the
  resources, such as energy, water and raw
  materials, we use in our everyday lives.
• It also calculates the emissions generated from
  the oil, coal and gas we burn, and it determines
  how much land is required to absorb our waste.
• Since we use resources from all over the world,
  our footprint is the sum of these areas, wherever
  they are on the planet.

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Beer

• Land is required not only to grow the hops and
  barley, but also for processing and distributing
  operations, for housing the brewerys management
  and administration, and for the pub or restaurant
  which sells the end product.
• Additional forest land and is needed to absorb
  the waste CO2 released from all the energy used
  during harvesting, processing and shipping the
  beer.

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Envirowise Indicator
Has been developed in conjunction with a leading
carbon and ecological footprinting company.
Allows all businesses, irrespective of size or
industry sector, to gain indication of both
carbon and ecological footprint resulting from
the levels of resource that they use.
http//www.envirowise.gov.uk/eu070901
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Carbon footprint

• The total set of greenhouse gas emissions caused
  directly and indirectly by an individual, event,
  organisation, product expressed as CO2e
  (equivalent).
• Carbon Trust

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Why footprint?

• To manage and reduce emissions over time a tool
  for ongoing energy management.
• To report the footprint accurately to a third
  party for CSR or marketing purposes or to
  calculate offset requirements for carbon
  neutrality.

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Basic footprint

• Basic footprint covers
• direct emissions onsite fuel usage
• emissions from onsite electricity usage
• use of transport that you own
• excludes indirect sources
• involves data collection and conversion using
  standard emissions factors published by DEFRA.

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Full footprint

• Full footprint involves 5 stage process
• Define methodology
• Specify boundary and scope of coverage
• Collect emissions data calculate footprint
• Verify results Optional
• Disclose the footprint

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Carbon Footprint labelling- mitigation in
manufacture
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Carbon Labelling- mitigation in use

• White goods
• Cars
• Houses.
• Whats next?

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Carbon Trust Carbon Calculators

• The basic indicator will provide an estimated
  footprint based on your energy bill and sector
• To complete the calculator you will need data
  for your organisation covering
• Fuel usage (e.g. gas bill), vehicle usage,
  electricity bill employee travel
• www.carbontrust.co.uk

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Carbon offsetting

• Offsetting is a way of compensating for the
  emissions produced with an equivalent carbon
  dioxide saving.
• International technology based projects preferred
  over tree planting.
• Defra Carbon Offsetting Code of Best Practice
• http//www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climatechange
  /uk/carbonoffset/codeofpractice.htm
• Accredited offsets will be given Government
  Quality mark

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ISO 14000 series

• ISO 14001 International standard on environmental
  management systems
• ISO140212001 Standard on environmental labels
  and declarations self-declared environmental
  claims.
• Provides guidance on the terminology, symbols,
  testing and verification methodologies that an
  organisation should use for self-declaration of
  the environmental aspects of its products and
  services
• www.iso.org

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Environmental communications guidelines

• DETR/DTI Green Claims code (2000)
  http//www.defra.gov.uk/environment/consumerprod/g
  cc/pdf/gcc.pdf
• ASA CAP (Committee of Advertising Practice)
  Advice on line Environmental Claims Motoring,
  Aviation, General, General Green Claims,
  Recycling http//www.asa.org.uk/cap/advice_online/
  advice_online_database/
• ABI Influential Insurance (Sept 2007)
  http//www.abi.org.uk/BookShop/ResearchReports/Inf
  luential20Insurance.pdf

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Environmental communications guidelines

• GUIDES FOR THE USE OF ENVIRONMENTAL MARKETING
  CLAIMS US Federal Trade Commission
  www.ftc.gov/bcp/grnrule/guides980427.htm
• Talk the Walk - Advancing Sustainable
• Lifestyles through Marketing and Communications
• UNEP Global Compact, 2005

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and finally
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The 11th Hour- calling for restorative action
through technology, social responsibility and
conservation
Leonardo DiCaprio
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The Story of Stuff

• 'Our enormously productive economy demands that
  we make consumption our way of life...that we
  convert the buying and use of goods into
  rituals...that we seek our spiritual
  satisfaction, or ego satisfaction, in
  consumption. We need things burned up, worn out,
  replaced and discarded at an ever-increasing
  rate.'
• Victor Lebow, US Retail Analyst,
  1950http//www.storyofstuff.com/

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Research Update
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The clusters
Source Climate Change and Brands
Consortium/Future Foundation Base 1,500 adults,
UK, 2007
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Committed greenies

• Do all green things more than most, or at least
  claim to.
• Fairly neutral over whether to trust companies,
  but definitely think government should be doing
  more.

Source Climate Change and Brands
Consortium/Future Foundation
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Aspiring greenies

• Attitudinally and socio-demographically very
  similar to the committed greenies, but not as
  good at translating this into some of the more
  difficult behaviours. They are trying, though.

Source Climate Change and Brands
Consortium/Future Foundation
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Examples of Delphi-participants-

• Head of Partnership Marketing
• Director General Corporate Federation
• Sustainability task force top tier University
• Professor of Social Psychology
• International Campaign Director Climate
  organisation
• Author of Climate Change book
• Senior Lecturer in Sustainable Tourism
• Sustainability research institute
• Director marketing organisation
• Head of Climate Change major supermarket

Head of Corporate Responsibility high street
retailer Project Director - Carbon
Project Research Fellow on climate
change Research Director Carbon research
body Research and futures advisor Architecture
and building sector Social Responsibility
Manager DIY chain Head of CSR high street
chemist Head of Group Strategic Options
multinational insurance company Principal
Sustainability Advisor think tank
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Final thoughts..

• Environmentally friendly attitudes and behaviour
  are not inextricably linked
• Recycling is the top of mind and most common
  green behaviour reducing the amount of waste
  produced is the next logical step (Less paper?
  Less post? recycled and/or recyclable are key)
• Green purchasing is increasing but main barrier
  is still price and availability
• Transport
• Stronger support for companies to change
  behaviour re fuel etc than for consumers changing
  own behaviour re travel (re flying, car use)

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And more final thoughts..

• Green initiatives
• New initiatives are enthusiastically received,
  but..
• Carbon language not sufficiently understood
• Suspicion around carbon offsetting for some
• Potential to build goodwill
• But little willingness amongst consumers to pay
  more
• Key barriers to green behaviour remain
  affordability (incentives preferred to
  penalties), availability (choice editing is
  popular) and clear labelling/information (green
  initiatives need accompanying consumer education)

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