Energy Futures: air, water and land impacts

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IEEE Portland

• Energy Futures - air, water and land impacts

Leonard J. Bond, Ph.D., C.Eng. Laboratory Fellow,
PNNL Director-elect IEEE Region 6 (2008) March
18, 2008
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GLOBAL RESOURCE ISSUES

• 2.0 Billion people no access to electricity, and
  many more do not have clean water
• 1.5 Billion people live on less than
• 1 per day
• Resource depletion
• minerals land use changes
• ¼ land forests ¼ used for agriculture
• Pollution
• Climate change/Global warming
• Drivers of environmental change
• Energy use
• Economy standard of living (education)
• Population

Asian Brown Cloud
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Energy -- The Energy System
Source Dr. Geoffrey Ballard, General Hydrogen
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Current World Energy Situation
Still, 2 billion people lack access to adequate,
convenient electricity
Source - EIA
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Future World Energy Consumption

• US domestic energy use increase 40-50 by 2030
• World energy expected to nearly DOUBLE by 2030
• Energy consumption driven by developing countries
  raising their standard of living
• Energy efficiency and conservation alone cannot
  stop energy consumption growth.
• All projections show significant growth in energy
  use

World Energy Consumption 1970-2020
Source EIA
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WORLD ENERGY SUPPLY - The world is not running
out of energy it is running out of the type
energy we have used most

• Petroleum, a key energy source
• 97 of transportation
• 35 of industrial base load
• 13 of residential
• 8 of commercial
• Hydrocarbons (petroleum, coal, natural gas)
  provide 85 of United States energy
• Hydrocarbons provide 70 of electric capacity
• USA 5 worlds population and use 25 worlds
  energy

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The Energy Challenge.

• Can the USA and world transition to a New Energy
  Economy?
• Need to deliver energy
• Secure
• Sustainable
• Affordable
• Environmentally friendly
• Without MAJOR economic, climate and political
  disruptions

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International Energy Agency (IEA) An Energy
Investment Challenge

• We dont have an energy crisis, we have an
  energy investment crisis.
• We will need billions invested.
• Skip Bowman, President - Nuclear Energy
  Institute, 2005

IEA forecasts that roughly 1,000 billion needs
to be invested in North America each decade to
meet energy demands, half of it in the electric
sector. World Energy investment Outlook, 2003
For U.S. Canada
Billions
Investments in energy efficiency are additional.
Environmental Business International Andrew
Paterson
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Climate change?

• Siberian permafrost melts for first time since
  the ice age
• Glaciers melting and polar ice caps thinning
• Early springs ?
• Data not clear over 90 years in the USA corn belt
  (Miller et al (2005)
• More hurricanes?
• Hurricane link to climate change is hazy
  Schiermeier (2005)
• Extreme weather to become more frequent due to
  global warming (Dorey (2005)

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Rising Temperatures bring changes worldwide
Seattle Times (Oct, 9, 2005)
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Carbon dioxide, methane and temperature past
400,000 years
377

Study 2000
2004 data 377 ppmv highest in 650,000 years
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How much CO2 is USA producing?

• Global CO2 emissions hit record level (2004) 6.3
  billion tons
• USAs 600 coal fired power plants 2 billion
  tons CO2 annually
• 36 US emissions
• 10 of GLOBAL total
• USAs 600 coal fired power plants also produce
• 64 sulfur dioxide
• 26 nitrous oxides
• 33 mercury emissions

Note Globally 5,000 coal mining deaths every
year China planning 553 new coal fired power
plants
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Oil issues

• World is using current oil production capacity
• More oil is being used than new fields discovered
• Oil prices can be expected to rise (120 barrel
  crude)
• In 30 years oil production COULD be down by 75
• Enhanced oil recovery?
• The end of cheap fossil fuel will end a whole
  way of life says Larry Elliot (2005)
• Futurist/Guardian

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Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC)

• Town Gas more than 100 year history
• Gasification to electricity
• Or transport fuel
• Future Gen (IGCC)
• Demonstration project
• Goal is 90 cleaner coal
• Higher efficiency 60 vs 35
• Plant running by 2012
• Cost about 962M

Negishi, Japan 342 MW IGCC
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What is Carbon Sequestration?Capture and storage
of CO2 and other Greenhouse Gases that would
otherwise be emitted to the atmosphere

• Capture can occur
• at the point of emission
• when absorbed from air
• Storage locations include
• underground reservoirs
• dissolved in deep oceans
• converted to solid material
• trees, grasses, soils, or algae

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Renewable Energy a significant role

• Wind increasingly competitive
• Solar for on-site use is most viable near-term
  option
• Advanced bio-energy potential to off-set liquid
  fuel imports
• Bio-based polymers - option to replace
  petro-chemical
• Electric storage and grid interface remain key
  issues
• Net energy return and chemicals used in
  manufacture (e.g. photovoltaic)
• Food vs fuel production?

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Rising prices creating opportunities for
non-conventional fuels
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Increased interest in synfuel options
DoD Joint Working Group (2005)
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Other ways to get Oil Synthetic Fuel Requirements
Carbon
Hydrogen

• Near term
• natural gas
• coal
• biomass
• Long term
• coal
• shale
• gas hydrates
• recycled carbon (CO2)

• Near term
• natural gas
• electrolysis
• coal
• biomass
• Long term
• water splitting
• gas hydrates
• oil shale

Energy

• Near term
• coal
• natural gas
• nuclear

• Long term
• coal
• Shale tar sands
• nuclear
• gas hydrates

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Critical Water Challenges

• Water in the U.S. is already allocated for
  energy, agriculture, and other needs
• Ensure that limited water supplies do not hinder
  development of future energy supplies
• Minimize water-related energy needs
• Protect interdependent activities (transport,
  recreation, etc.) from water used for energy

• Idaho Denies Water Rights Request for Power
  Plants
• U.S. Water News Online, August 2002
• New Mexico Utility Plans to Increase Power, Use
  No More Water
• Albuquerque (NM) Journal, June 2003

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Energy and Water are Inextricably Linked
Energy production and generation require water
thermal electric power generation is the second
largest user of water in the United States

• Power Plants
• 132,000 Mgal/day withdrawn
• 3,000 Mgal/day consumed
• Irrigation
• 134,000 Mgal/day withdrawn
• 81,399 Mgal/day consumed

80 of the cost of treating, processing and
pumping water is for energy
Source Estimated Use of Water in the United
States in 1995, USGS Circular 1200, 1998
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Water for energy

• Water withdrawals
• Fresh water use by sector in US
• Thermoelectric generation needs nearly as much
  water as agriculture
• Source - Marcino Berger (2003)

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University of Chicago Study
(2005 data)
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USA generation capacity by 2025 and beyond

• Renewables
• 25 GW(e) added by 2025
• Triple generation by 2050
• Coal gasification for electricity
• 80 GW(e) added by 2025
• IGCC technology with carbon sequestration
  phasing in over next 20 years

• Nuclear
• 25 GW(e) to be added by 2025
• High-temperature reactors by 2025 for higher
  efficiency, hydrogen and/or dry cooling
• Breeder reactors and reprocessing by 2050

Source - ORNL - 2006
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Transition to hydrogen economy (Hydricity)?

• Advanced Energy Initiative (2006)
• Zero-emission coal, solar, wind and clean safe
  nuclear
• Breakthroughs in corn based ethanol (2012)
• Better batteries for hybrid-electric cars
  hydrogen cars (2020)
• Hydrogen to upgrade fossil fuels
• e.g. Heavy oil upgrading ( coal to liquid fuels)
• -increase yield from barrel of oil by 15
• Pure H2 technologies
• e.g. Fuel cell vehicles

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Hydrogen production sources in perspective
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USA is 5 of world population WE USE 25OF
WORLDS ENERGY
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GLOBAL POPULATION
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Population and impact

• Paul Ehrlich developed the IPAT Equation where
• I P A T
• whereI is the impact on the environment
  resulting from consumptionP is the population
  numberA is the consumption per capita
  (affluence)T is the technology factor
• (Ehrlich and Holdren 1971)

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Standard of livingU.N. Human Development Index
1.0
Japan
France
UK
U.S.
Canada
Germany
Australia
Russia
China
0.6
India
Pakistan
0.3
4,000
8,000
12,000
Annual Electricity Use kWh/Capita
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Energy for development

• Coal
• Hydro-electricity
• Nuclear
• 2,300 GWe increase
• Globally next 20 years

ANS Fall 2007 Conference
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Forecast Electricity Demand
(Billion KWh)

Asia
Europe
U.S.
Rest of World
Source EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2004
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China Quick Facts

• Worlds largest population
• China 1.3 billion
• U.S. 0.3 billion
• Second largest energy consumer
• U.S. 25 of world total
• China 10 of world total
• Almost equal in CO2 emissions

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China Energy Portfolio
2 Nuclear
Total ElectricalGeneration
Gas
Hydro
Coal
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Three Gorges dam

• 19 GWe (10 of Chinas countries capacity)
• 500 million people from countryside to cities
• Shanghai 19 million people

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Electricity from coal

• Eighty per cent of China's electricity comes from
  coal,
• 544 new coal-fired power stations to meet an
  insatiable demand for energy.
• 6,000 were killed in China's coal mines just last
  year

600 coal fired electricity plants in USA
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New Build

• 439 NPP globally
• 34 under construction
• 6 under major refurbishment
• 94 planned
• 222 proposed
• China (9 GW now)
• 40 GW by 2020
• India
• Add 20 GW by 2020
• USA NRC expecting 20-30 COLs
• 7 planned 25 proposed

Qinshan Site -PWR
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World View - Nuclear

• 440 nuclear power plants â 367 GWe
• 16 of worlds electricity
• Displaces 2.5 billion metric tons of CO2/year
• 38 GW brought on line since 2000

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How Nuclear Power Is Helping in U.S. Today

• Cleaner Air
• Displaces other polluting forms of electricity
  generation
• In the U.S., nuclear power saves about 175 MMTC
  carbon each year
• Emission-free generating sources supply almost
  30 percent of Americas electricity
• Nuclear energy provides the greatest share of
  clean energy -- over 70 percent

Source EIA
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Energy equivalents
Source Utility Data Institute
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(No Transcript)
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The Waste Issue

• Deep geological disposal (Yucca Mt)
• Reprocessing followed by deep geological disposal
• Advanced reprocessing
• Close the fuel cycle
• Residue to disposal
• Reduced high radiation period
• Reduce toxic life of waste to 300 yr.

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The Waste Issue GNEP
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Global Energy Use Today and Tomorrow
The World needs ALL types of energy
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What is the global future?

• Population will grow may be 9 Billion by 2045
  or 2100
• Energy utilization will increase (could triple in
  next 50 years and increase factor of 6 or 7 by
  2100)
• Negative impacts on land use due to economic
  growth will increase
• Drinking and agricultural water supply an
  increasing challenge
• Climate change is occurring international of
  response unclear (Bali)

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Worldwide Estimated Fuel Reserves
Nuclear Energy is a Thousand-Year Energy Resource
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US Nuclear Power
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Dennis Spurgeon, February 2008
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New US Plants Projects notified to NRC
ANS -- January 2008
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Dennis Spurgeon, February 2008
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NEW TECHNOLOGY IS NEEDED - if emission control to
be implemented
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Population and impact

• Paul Ehrlich developed the IPAT Equation where
• I P A T
• whereI is the impact on the environment
  resulting from consumptionP is the population
  numberA is the consumption per capita
  (affluence)T is the technology factor
• (Ehrlich and Holdren 1971)

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Earth..common experience
Earthrise Dec 25, 1968 Apollo 8 Voyager 1
1990 Image of earth from 4 billion miles
Pale Blue Dot Carl Sagan Oct.1994 We
succeeded in taking the picture.(the earth)..
the only home we will ever know We must work
together as the crew if we are to survive on our
planet - Space Ship Earth R. Buckmaster
Fuller (1980s)
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A Global Energy Future

• Secure, sustainable, affordable energy with
  limited environmentally impact is possible
• To meet challenges significant technological
  innovation is needed
• Meeting energy demand will need ALL available
  technologies and energy sources
• Open question -- Post Oil-Peak - can USA
  transition smoothly to the New Energy Economy?
• Business as usual is not a workable option
• Doom and Gloom or a Sustainable Future?

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Technology challenges (opportunities)

• Double energy density in battaries (for cars)
• Takes range for electric car from 30-60 miles
• Storage of base load and renewable electricity
  (alternate to pumped water storage)
• Fuel cell car engine that last 100,000 miles
• Lower cost fuel cell
• Longer term --- FUSION for electricity generation

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Future generations are counting on us Can we
afford to be wrong?

NASA photo, Natural Resources Defense Council