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The Eurodiffusion project
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holiday effects (2/3 on holidays: diffusion 10%) collectioners ... Conclusion: after 1 year around half of coins in NL are foreign ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation
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Title: The Eurodiffusion project
1
The Eurodiffusion project
Piet van Blokland, Lorna Booth, Kirankumar
Hiremath, Michiel Hochstenbach, Ger Koole, Sorin
Pop, Marieke Quant, Djoko
Wirosoetisno February 22, 2002
2
Research Questions
- How to model diffusion of Eurocoins?
- Is the data on the Eurodiffusion web site
reliable? - Can we estimate the rate of diffusion of
Eurocoins? - How much time before half your wallet is foreign?
3
Basic facts
- 12 countries, 8 denominations
- Grand total of 64.9 Gigacoins (GC)
- NL 3.3 GC, 1.6 GC in circulation as of Jan 1
- ? 100 MC added every month (savings)
- equilibrium 50-100 MC added per year (wastage)
- Number of coins per country not in proportion to
population - E.g. France 190 p.p., NL 200, Germany 280
4
Basic facts
- Average Dutch wallet (in guilder era) 15 coins
- In Dutch wallets 1516240 MC, 15 of 1.6 GC in
circulation! - Other 85 at banks and check outs
- No info on in circulation for other countries
- Possible assumptions
- fixed ratio to population
- fixed ratio to total number of coins made
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Basic facts
- Banks are free to buy Eurocoins wherever they
want - E.g., bank in Maastricht buying coins in D or B
instead of going to DNB warehouse in Eindhoven - Result National banks have no idea of net flows
of Eurocoins - Assumption net flow 0 for any 2 countries
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Data
- Measurements on Eurodiffusion site
- not guaranteed to
- be unbiased
- participants not
- aselect
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Data
- Eurometers 46, 167, 510
- large groups,
- 3 measurements
- assumed to be more
- reliable
- 91-98 Dutch
- Contrast with overall
- measurement
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Data
- Our measurements (19, 20 Feb)
- Best guess 4 diffusion per month in NL
Lunch students Lorna KdV check
out NL 93.1 98.4
94.7 .
9
Models
- Models need to be
- dynamic stochastic
- non-homogeneous (e.g., no Brownian motion)
- Choice Markov chains
- Modeling the movement of 1 coin
- States representing location of coin
- Flexible from 2 to any number of states
- (for countries, regions, wastage, savings,
etc.)
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Analysis of 2-state Markov chain
- Discrete-time, time unit 1 month
- Transition probability NL ? abroad 0.04
- Transition prob. abroad ? NL from
- net-flow balance
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Analysis of 2-state Markov chain
Flow out
Flow in
- Monthly flow out 0.04 3.3 GC
- Monthly flow in p 61.6 GC
- Thus p tr.prob. abroad ? NL ? 0.002
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Analysis of 2-state Markov chain
- Neglected following aspects
- diffusion depends on country and region
- savings and wastage
- holiday effects (2/3 on holidays diffusion 10)
- collectioners
- Considered only NL vs. rest Europe
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Results 2-state Markov chain
- Situation after 12 months including holiday
effects corresponds to situation after 15 with
rate 0.04 - Results after 15 (17) months 55 (50)
- Conclusion after 1 year around half of coins in
NL are foreign - Results strongly depend on assumptions and rate
14
Data and Markov chains
- After March 1 measurement need to estimate
diffusion rate on the basis of Q and QQ - Approach maximum likelihood
15
Further work and conclusion
- To do
- Analyse models with gt2 states
- Conclusions
- In about 1 year half of coins in our wallet is
foreign - Very nice study week
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Questions
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