CONSERVATION GENETICS AND THE FUTURE OF LIFE

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CONSERVATION GENETICS AND THE FUTURE OF
LIFE Milton Saier, Dept Molecular Biology
University of California, San Diego PREDICTIONS
FOR THE FUTURE DEPEND ON PROJECTIONS ABOUT HUMAN
NUMBERS, RESOURCE USE AND CLIMATE CHANGE 100
YEAR PROJECTION DAWN OF THE HOMOGECENE MANY
SPECIES EXTINCTIONS LOSS OF GENETIC VARIATION IN
SMALL FRAGMENTED POPULATIONS ASCENT OF THE WEEDS
GENERALISTS LOSS OF POLLINATORS AND
DISPERSERS INCREASED DISEASE PEST OUTBREAKS
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GLOBAL HABITAT DESTRUCTION MAJOR CAUSES
RANCHING, AGRICULTURE, LOGGING, FUELWOOD,
URBANIZATION, EXCESS RESOURCE CONSUMPTION, HUMAN
OVERPOPULATION RATES OF HABITAT
DESTRUCTION CURRENTLY ABOUT 3040 HECTARES PER
MINUTE, OR HALF A FOOTBALL FIELD PER SECOND
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S CA2 NO. OF SPECIES DOUBLES WITH 10X INCREASE
IN AREA
LOG SP. NO.
NOW
FUTURE
Log HABITAT AREA
A 10-FOLD DECREASE IN AREA CUTS THE SP. NO. IN
HALF. CURRENT GLOBAL RATE OF DESTRUCTION IS 3040
ha/minute.
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10 MILLION SPECIES ARE ON EARTH, OF WHICH 2/3
LIVE IN TROPICS. 40 OF CURRENT TROPICAL FORESTS
WILL BE DEGRADED BY 2020. SO, gt700,000 SP. WILL
GO EXTINCT IN TROPICAL FORESTS gt1 MILLION
SPECIES WORLDWIDE OVER 20 YEARS 15,000
SP./YEAR (GUESSTIMATE). CURRENT MAMMALIAN
EXTINCTION RATE 1 EVERY 4 YEARS. THIS SHOULD BE
COMPARED TO THE POST K-T (DINOSAUR) EXTINCTION
RATE OF 1 EVERY 10,000 YEARS. THE OVERALL
RATE IS NOW gt100,000X BACKGROUND.
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FAUNAL COLLAPSE DUE TO AREA EFFECT
No. Sp.
TIME
IF 1.5 OF WORLD IS PARKS AND RESERVES, THEN 10
OF THE BIOTA WILL SURVIVE TO THE YEAR 4000. 50
OF HIGHER VERTEBRATES WILL GO EXTINCT IN THE NEXT
500 2000 YEARS. PREDICTION 510 LOSS OF
CURRENT SPECIES BY 2020.
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• CAUSES OF EXTINCTION/THREAT
• HABITAT LOSS ALTERATION
• OVER-EXPLOITATION
• SPECIES INTRODUCTIONS
• PREDATORS/PATHOGENS
• COMPETITORS
• SECONDARY EFFECTS
• COMMENSALS
• POLLINATORS/DISPERSERS
• PESTICIDES
• CATASTROPHES

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GENETIC VARIABILITY IS CORRELATED WITH FITNESS IN
SOME CASES

• DEVELOPMENTAL STABILITY
• GROWTH RATE SIZE
• METABOLIC EFFICIENCY
• FERTILITY
• SURVIVAL OF NEW DISEASES
• SURVIVAL IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT
• LACK OF GENETIC VARIATION IN A POPULATION MAY
  CONTRIBUTE TO REDUCED FITNESS AND EXTINCTION

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DECLINE OF BIOMES AND BIOTAS WHAT IS HAPPENING?
SPECIES LOSSES ARE NOW AT AN ALL TIME HIGH AS
COMPARED WITH SUCH LOSSES OVER THE LAST 65M YRS.
THESE RATES ARE INCREASING. THEY MAY BE 30K/YR
NOW! TAXONOMIC CONSEQUENCES SOME TAXA WILL
DISAPPEAR OTHERS WILL DECREASE IN
DEVERSITY. ECOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES ECOLOGICAL
SERVICES MAY FAIL. EVOLUTIONARY CONSEQUENCES
EVOLUTION CAN NOT KEEP UP. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CHANGES RAPID BUT lt THAT COPED WITH OVER THE
LAST 2M YRS. IS IT UNPREDEDENTED? NO, IT IS NOT
YET A MASS EXTINCTION. IS IT BAD? YES, ITS
INEXCUSABLE TO LET IT BECOME A MASS
EXTINCTION RECOMMENDATIONS ARM THE SCIENTISTS
ALERT THE PUBLIC DO ANYTHING TO BUT WAIT!
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CONSEQUENCES FOR ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONS THRESHOLDS
AND ALTERED STATES DISEASE AND PEST
ERUPTION CHANGES IN BIOGEOCHEMICAL
CYCLES KEYSTONE SPECIES FOOD WEBS SHORTENING OF
FOOD CHAINS ASCENT OF THE MICROBES INCREASE IN
NUTRIENT ENRICHED NICHES UNPREDICTABILITY
NON-LINEAR EFFECTS SURPRISES ANTARCTIC SURGE
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WHAT ARE WE DOING WRONG? HABITAT LOSS HABITAT
DEGRADATION HABITAT FRAGMENTATION HABITAT
SIMPLIFICATION PHYSICAL ECOLOGICAL HOMOGENIZATI
ON EXT OF ENDEMICS / ASCENT OF DOMESTICATED/
WEEDS AND GENERALISTS AND COMMENSALS ORGANISMS
OVER-EXPLOITATION GENETIC MODIFICATION
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THE FUTURE DEPENDS ON PROJECTIONS ABOUT HUMAN
NUMBERS AND RESOURCE USE 100 YEAR
PROJECTION SPECIES EXTINCTIONS LOSS OF VARIATION
IN SMALL FRAGMENTED POPULATIONS ASCENT OF THE
WEEDS GENERALISTS CONTINUED CLIMATIC
CHANGE DAWN OF THE HOMOGECENE 1000 YEAR
PROJECTION MORE EXTINCTIONS
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FUTURE EVOLUTION OF SPECIES? LOSS OF GENETIC
VARIABILITY FRAGMENTATION OF GEOGRAPHIC
RANGES REDUCTION IN THE NUMBERS OF
SPECIES ELIMINATION OF PREDATORS AND
COMPETITORS ELIMINATION OF POLLINATORS AND
DISPERSERS NEW DISHARMONIOUS COMMUNITIES
ASSEMBLAGES OF SPECIES ADAPTIVE RESPONSES TO
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES
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RECOMMENDATIONS REDUCE HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH
RESOURCE USE IMPROVE ECOLOGICAL EDUCATION PROMOTE
RESEARCH ON ECOLOGICAL PROCESSES SO AS TO
IMPROVE SPECIES LEVEL CONSERVATION ON
RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN GENETIC VARIATION
POPULATION VIABILITY DEVELOP GLOBAL SYSTEM TO
FOSTER PROTECTION OF FRESHWATER AND MARINE
ECOSYSTEMS PROMOTE THE RE-DESIGN OF PROTECTED
AREAS TO ACCOMMODATE PREDICTED CLIMATIC CHANGE
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GENERAL DILEMMAS TOO FEW PLANS FOR SPECIES OR
COMMUNITIES CHOOSING AND JUSTIFYING CHARISMA,
UTILITY, KEYSTONE.. SPECIES IN ISOLATION vs.
SPECIES IN HABITATS INSTITUTIONS AND CRISIS
MANAGEMENT PARKS AND RESERVES ZOOS, AQUARIA
BOTANICAL GARDENS EDUCATIONAL PROGRAMS OWNERSHIP
AND MANAGEMENT OF THE WILD
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• BIODIVERSITY CRISIS COULD NOT HAVE COME AT A
  WORSE TIME
• NOW CLEAR THAT
• TRADITIONAL NATIONALISM DOES NOT SERVE OUR
  INTERESTS.
• WHEN A LEAF FALLS IN BRAZIL IT DOES IMPACT US
  HERE.
• LIVING THE ECOLOGICAL LIE (GHOST ACERAGE) HAS A
  PRICE
• WE ARE LIVING HIGH, AS IF WE HAD 10 EARTHS
• SHOVELING COAL ON A RUNAWAY TRAIN ONLY MAKES
  THINGS WORSE
• YOU CANT EAT GNP AS TRADITIONALLY DEFINED
• ECONOMISTS AND ENGINEERS SHOULD HAVE TO STUDY
  ECOLOGY
• ATTITUDES TOWARDS WILDLIFE ARE DIVERSE AND OFTEN
  ILL- INFORMED, MANIPULATED, AND/OR IRRATIONAL

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SOLUTION OF THE BIODIVERSITY CRISIS CAN COME
ONLY WITH THE SOLUTION OF THE HUMAN PREDICAMENT
SUSTAINABILITY STEWARDSHIP BIONEERING THE
INTERVENTIVE GENETIC AND ECOLOGICAL MANAGEMENT OF
SPECIES, COMMUNITIES AND ECOSYSTEMS IN A
POST-NATURAL WORLD ANALYTIC DELIBERATION
SCIENCE-BASED PROCESS OF CONSENSUS BUILDING