Satellite applications for Tropical Cyclone TC

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Satellite applications for Tropical Cyclone (TC)
analysis and forecasting at the National
Hurricane Center (NHC) Lixion Avila 3rd Annual
Symposium Future National Operational
Environmental Satellites San Antonio, TX Jan 2007
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Satellite applications for TC analysis and
forecasting at the National Hurricane Center

• Senior Hurricane Specialist, NOAA/NHC
  1990-Present
• Meteorologist, NOAA/NHC 1987-1990
• PhD, Meteorology University of Miami, 1993
• MS, University of Miami 1984
• BS, Meteorology University of Havana, 1973

Lixion Avila, PhD Senior Hurricane
Specialist NOAA/NHC
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Satellite applications for Tropical Cyclone (TC)
analysis and forecasting at the National
Hurricane Center (NHC) Lixion Avila 3rd Annual
Symposium Future National Operational
Environmental Satellites San Antonio, TX Jan 2007
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NHC or World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
RSMC MIAMI
Regional/Specialized Meteorological Center
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Useful websites http//www.fnmoc.navy.mil
http//cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html
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FORECASTER DILEMMA

• Lack of data over much of oceanic areas
• Inability to accurately assess strength of
  tropical waves and circulations

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Partial
solution Fill in surface wind field data gaps
over large ocean areas with qualitative and
quantitative satellite wind vectors and remotely
sensed wind data from microwave satellite
imagery Note while satellite low-cloud wind
drift data is available every 3 to 6 h, this
data is usually centered at least 3,000 ft/1000 m
above the ocean surface at the top of the
boundary layer
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Monitoring the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of
Mexico and Pacific by satellite
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Dvorak Technique

• Tropical cyclones have characteristic evolutions
  of cloud patterns that correspond to stages of
  development and certain intensities

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Developing Cloud Patterns
Katrina (2005)
Rita (2005)
Rita (2005)
Katrina (2005)
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Weakening Cloud Patterns
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Dvorak Technique Output
Note Other warning centers and basins use
different pressures and wind averaging periods
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Objective Dvorak Technique

• Automated pattern matching technique developed at
  the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological
  Satellite Studies at the University of Wisconsin
• Generally run on 30 min interval imagery
• Algorithm includes all the Dvorak technique cloud
  patterns and most of the rules
• Works best on TCs with eyes, but can be used on
  less-developed systems starting with disturbances
  

Katrina (2005)
Rita (2005)
http//cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/odt/
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Where is the center?
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Well-defined mid-level eye
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0430 UTC 27 August 2004 GOES-10 IR
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Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) Primary Use of
Scatterometer Wind Data

• Used in high seas forecasts
• Used to verify (or initiate) gale or storm
  warnings
• Used for identification of tropical waves,
  fronts, and other sub-synoptic scale
  circulations.
• Used to help identify developing surface cyclonic
  circulations and to upgrade tropical
  waves/tropical disturbance to tropical depression
  strength
• Used to help identify radius of 34-kt winds
  associated with TCs

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• ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
• HURRICANE HELENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER
  45
• NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
  AL082006
• 800 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006
• THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO
  UPDATE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY AND
  WIND RADII FOR HELENE. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
  UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A RECENT
  QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT HELENE CONTAINS A
  LARGE AREA OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SOUTHWEST OF
  THE CENTER. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 80 KT IS
  BASED ON THE STRONGEST WIND IN THE QUIKSCAT
  DATA...WHICH WAS OUTSIDE OF DEEP CONVECTION IN
  THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
  EXPANDED ALSO BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA.

Quikscat wind vectors
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Hurricane Helene 545 AM EDT 23 Sep, 2006
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Gulf of Tehuantepec gale area
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Derived Products
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L
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Shear analysis
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Shear tendency
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SST Before Hurricane Dennis
July 8, 2005 0200 UTC
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Hurricane Dennis Cool Wake
July 11, 2005 1400 UTC
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SAHARAN DUST LAYER EASTERLY SURGE
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Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit (AMSU)
Applications

• Temperature/moisture information for NWP
• Tropical cyclone retrieval algorithms developed
  by CIRA and CIMSS
• TC Warm core from AMSU provides intensity and
  wind radii estimates
• Complements Dvorak technique and QuikSCAT

T anomaly measured by AMSU for Hurricane Rita
(2005)
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Future Satellite Data for Hurricane Prediction

• Next generation NOAA geostationary data (GOES-R)
• Advanced baseline imager
• Many new channels
• Improved spatial and temporal resolution
• Improved feature tracked winds
• Lightning mapper
• Next generation NOAA polar orbiting data (NPOESS)
• Advanced Imager (VIIRS)
• Hyperspectral IR sounder (CrIS)
• Advanced technology microwave sounder (ATMS)
• Possible microwave imager (MIS)

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Hyperspectral IR Sounders

• Currently available from AIRS on AQUA
• Soon to be available on Met-Op (IASI)
• Planned for NPOESS
• Will provide vastly improved vertical resolution
  for temperature and moisture soundings

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Moisture Weighting Functions for Current GOES
and Typical Hyperspectral IR sounder
(From T. Schmit, CIMSS)
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Hurricane Eye Soundings

• Combined IR and Microwave retrievals can provide
  hurricane eye sounding
• ATMS/CrIS on NPOESS
• Algorithm being tested using AIRS/AMSU
• 4 from Isabel 2003 (large eye)

IPO/IGS project to NESDIS/ORA
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Hurricane Isabel (2003) Cases with AIRS/AMSU Eye
Soundings
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Temperature AnomaliesFrom AIRS/AMSU Soundings
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Minimum Pressure From AIRS/AMSU Sounding
Integration compared to Recon
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THANKS