University of Kalmar, Sweden

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United Nations Environmental Programme
Global Environmental Facility
University of Kalmar, Sweden
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GIWA Project Goals

• Produce a comprehensive and integrated global
  assessment of international waters and analyze
  the problems related to the water as a resource
  and water utilization
• Identify the linkages between issues affecting
  the transboundary aquatic environment and their
  causes, so GEF can better intervene to resolve
  the problems in a sustainable and cost-effective
  manner
• Implement environmental and socio-economic impact
  assessments in 66 subregions, including both
  marine and freshwater systems

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The 66 Subregions around the world
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GIWA 5 Concerns (22 Issues)

• Freshwater shortage (Reduction of stream flow
  Lowering of water table and Pollution of
  existing water supplies)
• Pollution (Microbiological pollution
  Eutrophication Chemical pollution Suspended
  solids Solid waste Thermal pollution
  Radionuclides Spills)
• Habitat and community modification (Loss of
  ecosystems or ecotones Modification of
  ecosystems or ecotones)
• Unsustainable exploitation of fisheries and other
  living resources (Inappropriate harvesting
  practices Resources/habitat changes Habitat
  destruction Decreased viability of stock through
  contamination and disease Biodiversity impacts)
• Global change (Changes in hydrological cycles
  Sea level change Increased UV-B radiation as a
  result of ozone depletion Changes in ocean
  carbon dioxide source/sink function)

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GIWA Assessment MethodologyThe first phase, the
analytical one, has three stages

• Scaling/Scoping
• Identification of priority Issues (among 22
  Issues) regarding
• Defining geographical boundaries of the aquatic
  systems to be assessed. Identification of the
  relevant issues and concerns in the system that
  should be prioritized for further examination in
  the subsequent stages. What are the key
  aquatic systems within the sub-region? What are
  the issues that should be analyzed further?
• Environmental impact
• Socio-economic impact
• Detailed Impact Assessment
• Causal Chain Analysis

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GIWA Assessment MethodologyThe first phase, the
analytical one, has three stages

• Scaling/Scoping
• Detailed Impact Assessment
• For those Priority Issues identified during
  Scoping
• Environmental Impact Assessment
• Socio-Economic Impact Assessment
• A detailed analysis of the environmental issues
  and concerns, and their impacts on the
  environment and society. What are the detailed
  impacts of the identified issues?
• Causal Chain Analysis

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Detailed Assessment

• DA is not meant to produce new information.
• DA is not a massive data gathering.
• DA documents existing information related to the
  assessment of selected concerns, issues, impacts
  and causes.

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GIWA Assessment MethodologyThe first phase, the
analytical one, has three stages

• Scaling/Scoping
• Detailed Impact Assessment
• Causal Chain Analysis
• An analysis in a stepwise manner of the linkages
  between the identified problems and their
  underlying root causes. What are the immediate
  causes, and root causes of the problems? What are
  the barriers to overcome the identified impacts,
  e. g. failure to implement existing
  regulations, market distortions?

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The Causal-Chain Model
Root causes / Governance
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GIWA Status of Assessment
Scaling/Scoping Done
Scaling/Scoping Planned
Pending
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GIWA SCOPINGMATRIX
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Sub-region 45aAgulhas Current

• Introduction
• Eight river basins, giving the water to ca 5000
  km transboundary coastline and continental
  shelves. Human population is ca 58 miljons
  inhabitants.
• Freshwater shortage This is the main problem,
  due to excessive water abstraction (mainly for
  irrigation) and pollution of supplies. Streamflow
  in Zambesi River has declined with gt50 the last
  30 years, due to dam constructions.
• Pollution Presently not a critical concern.
  Though some hotspots have been reported in mining
  and industrial zones in major cities.
• Unsustainable fisheries Unsustainable
  exploitation of marine fisheries, particularly
  tuna and shrimps, is severe and likely to
  escalate to critical levels by the year 2020. In
  other African areas also freshwater fisheries
  have similar problems.

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• Habitat Modification Quite extensive harvesting
  of mangroves along Zambezi basin.
  Overexploitation of seagrass exceeds natural
  replenishment. Floodplains exploited for
  agricultural and urban development, but also
  mining. Wetlands, marshes and riparian zones are
  extensively modified, due to declining streamflow
  and more intensive agricultural activities. Coral
  reefs are increasingly affected in several ways.
• Socio-economic implications Escalating poverty,
  food deseases, all resulting in within-rural and
  rural-urban migration. Root causes are suggested
  to be decline in agricultural productivity,
  fisheries harvest and habitat losses. More than
  30 of the Sub-Saharan water systems do not meet
  the WHO drinking standards

Sub-region 45aAgulhas Current
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• Introduction
• Yellow Sea Sub-region should include
• The Yalujiang River and its associated coastal
  and marine habitats in its river mouth north of
  the Yellow Sea
• Coastal river basins in Liaodong Peninsula which
  drain partially to the northern Yellow Sea (and
  partially to the Bohai Sea)
• Coastal river basins in Shandong Peninsula which
  partially drain to the mid and southern Yellow
  Sea (and partially to the Bohai Sea)
• The Huaihe River Basins which include Hongzehu
  Lake and Gaoyuhu Lake, etc.

Mega-region North Pacific Sub-region 34 Yellow
Sea
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Critical Issues

• Freshwater shortage
• Major river systems showed serious reduction in
  flow of more 20 over the past 30 years.
• Many river systems of the sub-region are polluted
  causing habitat deterioration and unable to
  support living fish.
• Fish kills due to pollution in rivers are
  evident.
• Habitat and Community Modification
• Loss are particulary serous with fresh water
  marshland, lakes, rivers, lagoons.
• Modification are particularly serious with fresh
  water marshland, lakes, rivers, lagoons and
  estuaries.
• Volume and biodiversity of lakes and rivers
  changed significantly. Muddy shores greatly
  modified with increased opportunistic organisms.
• Unsustainable Exploitation of Fisheries and Other
  Living Resources
• Fisheries resources were highly over-exploited
  exceeding their maximum sustainable yields.
  Destruction of aquatic habitats leading to
  depletion of fish populations and decrease in
  biodiversity.
• Socio-economic factors.
• High concerns associated with social, economic
  and human health impacts are
• increased pollution of water
• habitat and community modification and.
• unsustainable exploitation of fisheries and other
  living resources.

Mega-region North Pacific Sub-region 34 Yellow
Sea
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Causal chain analysis for Yellow Sea
Unsustainable Exploitation of Living Resources
IMMEDIATE CAUSE
SECTOR ACTIVITY
ROOT CAUSE
GIWA ISSUE
IMPACT
Fisheries resources were highly overexploited
Increase in population growth, increased demand
for seafood, enhances the fishing activities.
More efficient fishing practices by introduction
of improved fishing technology.
Employment rates had decreased by 30-50 due to
over-fishing environmental degradation with
substantial impact on the social life of the
local population.
Fisheries easy access to improved fishing
technologies increasing the number of fishing
fleets.
Profit motive in fishing and disregard of the
environmental consequences caused uncontrolled
entry in the number of fishing vessels into the
fisheries sector.
14. Overexploitation
Increased fishing efforts leading to
over-harvesting of the living resources.
Increased market demand for seafood that leads to
increased fishing activities in disregard of the
consequences related to depletion of the living
resources.
Business opportunities in the seafood processing
industries had decreased
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Whats next

• The last (predictive) phase of the GIWA work
  focus on scenarios and remedial activities
• This leads to the clear need of Policy Option
  Analysis, indicating potential policy
  interventions, based on the analytical phase, to
  solve or mitigate the addressed concerns.