Planned Northern District Outreach Efforts

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PEACE RIVERMinimum Flowsmarty.kelly_at_swfwmd.stat
e.fl.us
Keeping the Peace, A Peace River Watershed
Management Conference October 5, 2006
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The Middle Peace River MFL

• Flow Regime Building Block Approach
• Two benchmark periods
• Multiple MFLs - address seasonality
• Percent of Flow Reduction Technique
• PHABSIM first application in Florida
• Significant Harm - 15 reduction in available
  habitat
• River-floodplain connection

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Approach

• Flow Regime versus Minimum Flow
• Benchmark Period
• Building Blocks (Peer Review Recommendation)
• of Flow Reduction / Flow Prescription

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Flow Regime
High Minimum Flow
Medium Minimum Flows
Low Minimum Flow
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Minimum Flows and Levels

• Components of an MFL (from Beecher 1990)
• a goal (e.g., non-degradation or, for the
  Districts purpose, protection from significant
  harm
• identification of resources of interest to be
  protected
• a unit of measure (e.g., flow in cfs, habitat in
  useable area, etc.)
• a benchmark period, and
• a protection standard statistic.

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The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its
relation to rainfall and river flows in the
continental United States Enfield et al. 2001,
U.S. Geophysical Research Letter, Vol. 28, No.20,
pp 2077-2080
During AMO warmings most of the United States
sees less than normal rainfall . . . . Between
AMO warm and cool phases, Mississippi River
outflow varies by 10 while the inflow to Lake
Okeechobee, Florida varies by 40.
Many of the 90 significant correlations, all
negative, are found in the Mississippi basin. A
further clustering of negative correlations
occurs west of the continental divide, except for
positive correlations in the Pacific Northwest.
Positive regional clusters also appear in the
northeast and Florida.
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ET
Rainfall
Discharge - Withdrawals Rainfall ET
Effluents Ground Water
Discharge Rainfall ET
Discharge
Rainfall 50 inches ET 40 inches Discharge
10 inches
Rainfall 45 inches ET 40 inches Discharge 5
inches
New Math 10 decrease in rainfall 50 decrease in
discharge
POP QUIZ what are typically the biggest two
terms in this equation?
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Two Benchmark Periods
This analysis procedure allows examination of
the role of climate variability as potential
influence on long-term shifts in river flows in
Florida. The report provides a convincing
argument that much of the variability in
streamflow hydrographs is strongly related to
long-term climate oscillations . . . - Shaw et
al. 2004
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Goldenberg et al. (Science, 2001)
Cool Atlantic

• 1971-1994 gt 25 years of AMO cool phase.
• Only 15 major hurricanes and US landfalling
  hurricanes are infrequent.
• Windstorm insurance is cheap. Underwriters and
  actuaries are unaware of climate risk shifts.

Warm Atlantic

• 1953-1970 1995-2000 gt 25 years of AMO warm
  phase.
• 33 major hurricanes and frequent US landfalling
  hurricanes.
• Windstorm insurance skyrockets. Wide public
  consciousness of the AMO-related shift in risk.

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Source http//www.wunderground.com/
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• Principle 2 Aquatic species have evolved life
  history strategies primarily in direct response
  to the natural flow regime

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Tools

• HEC-RAS
• Physical Habitat Simulation Analysis (peer review
  recommendation)
• Inundation Analysis
• Prescribed Flow Hydrographs

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HEC-RAS Modeling
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Wetted Perimeter
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PHABSIM Physical Habitat Simulation System
PREFERENCE
HABITAT SUITABILITY
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floodplain
exposed roots
snags
Days of Inundation of Woody Habitat and
Connection with the Floodplain
A 15 reduction in flow in Block 2 reduces the
number of days of inundation of exposed root
habitat by 15
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Flow Prescription Peace River at Arcadia
2000
8
1600
1200
Flow (cfs)
13
800
18
10
400
LFT 67 cfs
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
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QUESTIONS ?
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For Rivers with SRP, flows for the period 1940 to
1969 were greater than for the period 1970 to 1999
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Development of Low Flow Threshold Fish Passage
Standard
Lowest point in a cross section plus 0.6 ft is
plotted in terms of flow requirement to maintain
fish passage (I.e., river connectivity)
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of Flow Reduction / Flow Prescription
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Example of Physical Habitat Simulation output
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• Principle 3 Maintenance of natural patterns of
  longitudinal and lateral connectivity is
  essential to the viability of populations of many
  riverine species.

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Building Block Approach
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2
1
3
Results of Mann-Whitney Test
1 versus 2 significant at 0.0360 2 versus 3
significant at 0.0152 1 versus 3 not significant
0.7928
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http//www.swfwmd.state.fl.us/
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Habitat Suitability Curves

• Macroinvertebrate Diversity
• Largemouth Bass
• Bluegill Sunfish
• Spotted Sunfish

Spotted sunfish (Lepomis punctatus) taken from
FFWCC website
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Source http//www.wunderground.com/
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Basic Principles and Ecological Consequences of
Altered Flow Regimes for Aquatic Biodiversity
Bunn and Arthington. 2002. Env. Mgmt. 30 (4)
492-507

• Principle 1 Flow is a major determinant of
  physical habitat in streams, which in turn is a
  major determinant of biotic composition
• Principle 2 Aquatic species have evolved life
  history strategies primarily in direct response
  to the natural flow regime
• Principle 3 Maintenance of natural patterns of
  longitudinal and lateral connectivity is
  essential to the viability of populations of many
  riverine species.

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Comparison based on flows from 1940 to 1969
Comparison based on flows from 1970 to 1999
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MONOTONIC OR STEP TREND?
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For Rivers with NRP, flows for the period 1970 to
1999 were greater than for the period 1940 to 1969
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For bimodal rivers the SRP adhered to the SRP
cycle and the NRP adhered to the NRP cycle
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Identification of a narrow transition band in
north central Florida where a bimodal MDQ pattern
is found is a striking find. Although the
bimodality of certain rivers in the region
(e.g., the Santa Fe) is well known, the existence
of a spatially explicit transition zone between
the northern (temperate) and southern
(subtropical) flow patterns has not been
previously identified to our knowledge. -
Shaw et al. 2004
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The identification of an abrupt increase or
decrease in streamflow rather than a gradual
increasing decreasing trend is important
because the implications of a step change are
different from those of a gradual trend. The
identification of a gradual trend is that the
trend is likely to continue into the future,
whereas the interpretation of a step change is
that the climate system has shifted to a new
regime that will likely remain relatively
constant until a new shift or step change
occurs. -- McCabe and Wolock 2002