Peter Cochrane

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BroadBand - a fibre/wireless
business future
Peter Cochrane
www.ca-global.org
COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s
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Where the action always is!
Eco- System
Business
Hot Spot
People
Technology
3
We cant predict the future
but we can build it!
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God was a comms engineer
EM Waves Wireless/Radio ?
Silica Whoops we chose copper ?
He gave us Silicon Silica EM Waves
Silicon Transistors ?
5
And every decade new, lower cost class of
computers emerge
Silicon computing power has changed, and
continues to change, everything!!!

• Platform
• Interface to humans the world
• Networking and/or interconnect structure

log (people per computer)
year
Based on a slide by David Culler UC/Berkeley
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Faster faster wealth generation
USBn
100
PC
Internet
Mobile
90
New Company Value
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Year
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Key disruptive forces
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But we are now engaged in a dive to the
bottom
where everything is a commodity and the
commercial environment is predatory!
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A commodity?
Something that - is plentiful - we
need - we dont value - we are not
prepared to pay for In short - something we take
for granted AND - it results in industry
consolidation
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The illusion/grades of free
Gratis Buy one get one free Free with every
copy/packet of Free broadband with a fixed
mobile Sat TV 600 free minutes for only
25/month Free At The Point of Use
(FATPU) Free for 35/month
Flat fee wins over itemis/zed billing
Bundling wins single offerings
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Business customer drivers
lt 1960/70 gt 1980/90 Monopoly
Market
Its about
Me Me The
supplier The customer
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GDP BroadBand
Dont take my word for it! Over 1400Bn
contributed to CA GDP in last 14 years

Gartner Estimate (2003)
Politically and Telco defined broadband
128/256/512kbit/s - Contested at 10 - 301 Only
a small impact on GDP
Real broadband gt2 - 10 Mbit/s - Uncontested -
dedicated rate per customer Dramatic impact on
GDP
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The impact of broadband by sector for CA
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The BAD News
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BroadBand Definition
People who didnt understand thetechnology or
the opportunity took the decisions
1980s 2Mbit/s ?
1990s 0.128/0.256Mbit/s ?
What happened?
Japan Korea, et al did not make the same
mistake!
Economic, political, technical expedients
overtook reality and everybody went for cheapest
is best!
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BroadBand Today
In the East - most have gt2Mbit/s Current roll
out is at 10, 50 100Mbit/s Next generation
1000Mbit/s UNCONTESTED
In the West - most have lt 0.5Mbit/s (contended)
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The GOOD News
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In lt 30 years optical fiber technology has

• - revolutionized bit transport
• - powered the internet
• - exponentially driven capacity up cost down
• completely changed the networks industry
• afforded everyone the ability to communicate
• at will, anywhere, anytime, in any form
  at
• almost zero cost!

And there is now a screaming need for FTTH
FTTO - but a combination of fibre/wireless can do
the trick too!
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Why is broadband such a big deal?
It is the enabler for the next big revolution as
we move to a networked and globalized
economy with distributed capabilities including
design, manufacture, distribution and
support. Nothing escapes All commerce,
education, training, health, care, social
support, media, entertainment
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(No Transcript)
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Young people - Are tech aware
capable - Dont care about DRM - Are
content producers Check out
www.405themovie.com
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Prediction
Company IT Departments will go the same way as
the typing pool young people are strictly DIY
not DIFM
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A new breed of employee
Old (mindset/body/company?) Young
Unaware Unable Timid - Dependent Follower Spectato
r
Aware Capable Independent
Adventurous Leader
Player
100 Support Required 0
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From information to knowledge
People will either be able to cope with IT to
manage and interface with information and
knowledge or they will be asking would you
like ketchup with your fries!
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The dream.seamless access!
Cameras - VOIP - Sensors - Positioning
3m 30m
3km Ubiquitous
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WiFi is never more than 1 - 4 blocks away!
35 Free sites 60 Low cost 5 Rip off hotels
gt60
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Mountain View Thank you Google
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Number Tx of devices
MW
Tns
Sensors RFID
100 The need for regulation and control 0
Bns
Ms
Mobiles
Distance Power
WiFi/Max
100ks
ks
mW
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The spectrum myth it
is in short supply!
Actually it is mostly unused!
City of Chicago study lt17 of commercial
spectrum used
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Attenuation dB/km
Short range only due to high path loss
100
Opportunity space
H2O
O2
10
O2
FM Radio
TV
1
Mobile Phones
H2O
Ionosphere
0.1
WiFi
300GHz
0.01
10MHz 100MHz 1GHz 10GHz
100GHz
30GHz of busy spectrum 270GHz
unused
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Sheer computing power (just about) solved all the
old wireless problems

• Signal processing allows spread spectrum modes
• Auto power, channel and mode control made it all
  black boxes
• Spatial processing mitigates self/others
  interference
• Smart adaptation negates the need for regulation,
  band structures, frequency allocations etc??

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2.5/3G
HiFi Surround Sound
FreeView SatTV DVD
60GHz
WiFi
Entertainment IT connected configured using
60GHz. Everything inter-works talks with
ease. Wires have mostly gone!
DSL FTTH
Broadband Server back up store CD DVD
movie store Integral 60GHz WiFi BlueTooth
2.5 3.0G
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Hub/ Switch
A cloud of connectivity
Server
Router
Old wires and boxes view
New access cloud perception
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RFID will revolutionize every aspect of the
supply chain - from raw materials to manufacture,
logistics, supply support. In the field of
healthcare RFID will save lives, increase
efficiency and reduce costs.
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A retail revolution - RFID
WiFi in every EPOS
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We can now deliver an infinity of bandwidth to
almost any location ..all the old limiters
have gone!
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Wireless density will accelerate in the future
even faster BUT
More wireless means more fiber
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Net visitors come in packs. a
connected world is chaotic!
Active Site Visitors
Hour of the Day
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Network peak to mean(average) traffic ratio.
PSTN 41 Mobile 501 Internet 5001 .can
peak gt10001
This is a non-trivial problem and we are still
learning how to design/cope with such networks
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When we design networks and systems we have to
differentiate traffic services
Real time Human conferencing Non - real
time Data transfer Business critical
Bank/stock market transaction Life critical
On-line surgery Premium Games
Entertainment
Raw IP technology is not ideally suited to real
time
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The biggest problems we face?
Not technology! Not operational? The business
model/thinking is wrong People find it hard to
change
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A world of opportunity risk.
Thank you, www.cochrane.org.uk
www.ca-global.org
www.conceptlabs.net
COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s