Peter Cochrane

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The Future of technology. the end of government
as we know IT?

• Peter Cochrane
• ConceptLabs CA

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Disruptive technologies - Example
A homework assignment for a 14 year old! You may
wish to close your eyes
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Where have we come from
and where are we heading?
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Satanic Mills
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• Fordism
• mass production
• mass automation
• increased efficiency
• much more for much less
• deskilling
• fewer employed
• a new techno-elite
• more administration
• more non-essential people

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• Growing hierarchies
• centralized control
• less risk taking
• focus on cost cutting
• less adaptable
• prone to massive failure

7
Virtual business

• no hierarchies
• death of geography
• fluctuating assets
• information intensive
• highly adaptable
• rapid birth - death

8

• Machine takeover
• very few people
• humans augmentation
• AI AL takeover
• adaptable within limits
• prone to over production

9
Industry migrating to geographically dispersed
networks and clusters
the globalisation of everything
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The co-locationcollaboration myth
Likelihood of collaboration
10 2 0.4
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• And governments?
• change is very hard!
• lagging on all fronts
• limited public purse
• not really a business
• no competition
• old minds
• growing hierarchy
• growing bureaucracy
• losing control
• losing influence

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People are doing
whatever it takes to win!
They will no longer wait for slow companies or
government - they are now far more inclined to
ignore the law and just do it!
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Three types of worker
Part-time
Individual benefits
Agiltiy
Business benefits
Lifestyle pursuit
Cost efficiency
Skill utilisation
Career
Security
Goal focus
Skill advantage
Project focused contractor
Expression
Core
Innovation
Autonomy
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Challenges for the individual

• understand company
• understand business
• keep skilled
• track technology demand
• share commitment
• no back up/support
• work in virtual teams
• use latest media
• balance demands
• feast to famine cycles

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BUT - some people just dont get IT!
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We have come a long way!
BUT
We are such linear thinkers We dont cope well
with multiple dimensions We confuse data and
information We store the useless and misplace the
useful We need knowledge but create a fog of
confusion Networks and networking might just
save us!
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So innocent looking
y ex
it is compound interest on steroids!
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It aint about - it is about time
Technology
Rate of change
Companies Business
Society People
Legal Systems
Governments
Time
Today
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A future of man, woman machine...
FLOPS
100,000 Teraflop desktop
10
17
15
10
Teraflop
10
Human Brain
13
CM-5
10
12
SUPERCOMPUTERS
Delta
CM-2
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Cray C-90
10
Cray Y-MP
10
10
Massively parallel
Cray X-MP
10
Cray-1
9
CDC 7600
8
10
Cray -2
Multiprocessors
Stretch
ILLIAC IV
10
7
CDC 6600
LARC
10
6
CDC 1604
Vector
10
5
10
4
Scalar
10
UNIVAC
ENIAC
3
10
2
Relays
Vacuum tubes
Transistors
Micro-processors
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Integrated circuits
1000x
1
0.1
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
1940
2010
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The S Curve
Technology
time
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The S Curve Continuum
Technology
DVD
CD
Cassette Tape
time
Tape
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3D ICs Molecular Quantum Genetic Biological Optica
l Computing New Sensors Networks Software Lifefo
rms Intelligences
Moores Wall
ICn
Log Scale
IC5
IC4
IC3
IC2
IC1
Transistor
Thermionic Tube
1915 46 59
2010 2025
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Telecoms Capacity Demand
PONS
DWDM
WDM
optical fibre
coax PCM
coax carrier
transmission capacity (bit/s)
pair-cable PCM
pair-cable carrier
capacity available
radio
telephone
capacity used
telegraph
1840
1880
1920
1960
2000
2040
Analogue
Digital
Analogue
Digital
An/Dig
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Information Growth
TBytes
1000,000
100,000
10,000
1,000
Library of Alexandria destroyed
100
Printing
10
Electronic storage
1

0.1

Year
100
300
1000
2000
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No one knows anything anymore...
Highly specialised
All knowledge through technology?
Becoming specialised
The fount of all knowledge
1800
1900
TODAY
2000
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If only it was all this simple...
Sources of return
Variables
Markets
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Industry Dimensions
Political
Regulation
Globalisation
Competition
Organisation
Segmentation
Convergence
Strategy
Social
Customers
Technology
Economic
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Axiom 1 Mutually exclusive...
Efficiency Brittleness
Process Definition Control Hierarchy
Reliability
Adaptable - Fleet of Foot
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Axiom 2 Mutually exclusive...
Productivity Wealth Generation Creativity Freedo
m
Risk
Security, Constraints, Irrationality, Lack of
understanding, Rumour
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Not so Axiomatic
...Exponential Failure
Brittleness
Is it brittle? ? Is it visible? ? I only see
it when it fails!
Sudden, cliff Like failures
?
Analogue Digital
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Exponentially more for
exponentially less...
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Distribution
Manufacture
Raw Materials
RETAIL
Ecosystem
Consumer
Trash
Trash
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Mobile
B-B
B-B
B-B
Distribution
Manufacture
Raw Materials
RETAIL
Ecosystem
B-C
C-C
C-B
Consumer
Trash
Trash
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Adam Smithet al3/4D Thinking
Finite Source
Finite Sink
Linear Channel
Limited materials production routes to
market finance communication
Limited population appetites expectation finance
communication
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TodaynD - NonLinear Thinking
Infinite Sink
Infinite Source
Non Linear Channel/s
Unlimited (materials?) - bits production routes
to market finance communication
Unlimited population appetites expectation financ
e communication
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The Future is Chaos!
2000s
Hierarchical Structured
Self- Organised and Chaotic
Intranets
Telephone
Internet ?
Telegraph
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A connected world is chaotic.
Net visitors come in packs.
Active Site Visitors
Hour of the Day
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The dotcom bust!

• Greed
• Stupidity
• Naivety
• The old economy torpedoed the new
• No bandwidth in the local loop!
• But this is but a glitch - the internet is very
  young - and so are mobile phones, PDAs, PCs,
  wearables, things people on line etc

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3G Carnage!
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If we ran a company....
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If we ran a company....
Get the utilisation up...
...get the costs down...
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But many companies do this....
Direct Customers
Unit
Raw Materials
Lets create expense by internal constraints...
...and an internal
only market...
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Many companies...dont do this...
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They do this...
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And worse....they stove pipe...
Solutions
Operations
Systems
Network
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If only more companies looked..
like this...
Solutions
Operations
Systems
Network
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(No Transcript)
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From the few to the many...
Concentrated Expertise Skill
Distributed Ignorance
Telephone Operators Dial Buttons Computing
Mainframe PC Copiers Corp
Centre Office Xerox Printing Hot
Metal Offset/Laser Jet
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From the few to the many...
Concentrated Expertise Skill
Distributed Ignorance
Technology

Nn
Ability to Compete
N
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Where is the energy?
Internalised
Externalised
Dispersed - Chaotic Adaptable Fleet of Foot
Centralised Control - Hierarchy Inflexible
Ponderous
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Recent experience
Fixed Cellular LAN WLAN
Phone Phone
802.11
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Getting on-line in the EU

• NO
• WLAN
• LAN
• 2nd Phone Line
• Socket Standard

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The future - think beyond IT!
Artificial Intelligence Artificial
Life Robotics Materials Genetics Proteonics NonoTe
ch Non-linear optics Quantum computing et al
More faster change than ever before in
our history - and it will be (slightly!) out of
control
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The really big issues?
Ageing populations - fewer workers Health Care
- less money more demand Education Training -
the wrong model Logistics - can we afford to keep
travelling Energy - we are eating the
planet Security - a 13th century enemy? Defence -
just who where is the enemy? Globalization -
inevitable but hard to do Can government keep
up/be effective? Can government get out of the
way? Can social research ever get relevant? Can
technology help?
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Net Spectrum
Economy
Telephone Internet Parasitic
100
100
Resilience Latency Flexibility Reliability Scalabi
lity
Hierarchy Control
Internet
Parasitic
0
0
Random Bursty Chaotic
Static
Mobile
Traffic
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What do we need?
Less government and control More freedom of
communication More freedom of movement More
freedom of action More freedom of trade Lower
hierarchies More start-up companies to replace
the old A better educated more adaptable
population More self sufficiency
In order to create vibrant economies!
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Thank you, cochrane.org.uk conceptlabs.net