Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making

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Third International Seville Conference
onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis
(FTA)Impacts and implications for policy and
decision-making
16th- 17th October 2008
LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT STUDY IN
SLOVENIA
Prof. Peter STANOVNIK
Prof. Cene BAVEC
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LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT STUDY IN
SLOVENIA
Rationale behind Technology Foresight Study in
Slovenia

• Technological development and innovations are
  decisive factors in reducing development gaps
  between old and new EU member states
• It is crucial to embark on new development
  paradigms to enhance competitiveness, sustainable
  development, and knowledge economy
• It is also crucial to redefine and improve
  strategic thinking at national, regional and
  enterprise level
• We exploited experience from the first phase of
  the technology foresight research in 2005.

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LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT STUDY IN
SLOVENIA
Methodological Approach

• Basic priorities were based on the strategic
  documents in Slovenia as National Development
  Strategy, National Research Programme 2006-2010,
  Program of economic and social reforms - 2006
• Technology Foresight was combination of Delphi
  survey and expert panels
• 1800 stakeholders participated in study and
  dialogues private business sector, academia
  (universities, research institutes), public
  sector
• Data from all expert panels were statistically
  evaluated and filtered.

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LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT STUDY IN
SLOVENIA
Response rates by thematic fields
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LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT STUDY IN
SLOVENIA
Structure of Questionnaries
Example of the questionnaire about the theses
under investigation for thematic field ICT
1 new communication methods and protocols 2
intelligence in next-generation networks 3
system security in reliability 4 broadband
systems and convergence of communication
systems 5 embedded systems 6 interactive
telecomminication services and advanced services
for interface users 7 intelligent microsystems
in one chip 8 scientific and technical
translation systems 9 optoelectronics and high
definition (resolution) displays 10 service
ICT platforms 11 development of artificial
intelligence 12 cognitive systems 13 ICT
applications (e-work, e-learning, e-purchasing,
e-monitoring, e-government, data mining) 14
digital television 15 convergence of
communication systems 16 multifunctional
terminals 17 process controlling
technologies 18 wireless monitoring systems in
traffic. . . . .
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LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT STUDY IN
SLOVENIA
Evaluation Procedure

• Removal of answers of respondents who assessed
  their knowledge of individual theses as very low
  (marks 1 or 2)
• Identification of the most relevant assessment
  for each thesis (marks 4 or 5)
• Removal of theses with low share of thesis marked
  with 4 or 5 (below 50)
• Removal of some technological theses by expert
  panels
• Prioritization of finally selected technological
  theses, through expert panels.

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LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT STUDY IN
SLOVENIA
Encountered problems during the exercise

• Communication problems (phone and e-mail
  reminders)
• The structure of thematic expert panels
• The response rate in public administration and
  media
• Technology foresight, national and sectoral
  innovation systems.

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LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT STUDY IN
SLOVENIA
Average assessment of 10 most prosperous
technological theses by thematic fields in
Slovenian industries
Source IER Survey, March 2008
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LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT STUDY IN
SLOVENIA
Priority theses by thematic fields

• Industrial sustainable chemistry new synthesis
  technologies, green and low scale chemistry,
  polymers for controlled processes.
• Biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, nutrition
  biogeneric drugs, delivery systems to tissue
  engineering and new production processes in
  pharmaceutical and food processing industries.
• ICT embedded systems, service ICT platforms,
  wireless monitoring systems in traffic, process
  controlling technologies.

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LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT STUDY IN
SLOVENIA
Priority theses by thematic fields

• Advanced materials environmental friendly
  materials, multifunctional and intelligent
  materials, nano materials, special steel
  products.
• Eco-technologies environmentally acceptable
  products, renewable energy resources, rational
  use of energy, advanced waste and water
  treatment.
• Sustainable construction building of low energy
  houses, passive, bio and intelligent buildings,
  road construction, prefabricated construction
  systems.

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LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT STUDY IN
SLOVENIA
Conclusions

• The research was conceived in the way that
  enabled the use of experience from the first
  phase of the research in 2005.
• We concentrated on promotion of networking,
  collective learning and continuation of dialogue
  between main stakeholders in technological
  development in Slovenia private business
  enterprises, public universities, research
  institutes and governmental agencies.
• The main emerging technologies were identified in
  order to foster the process of RD prioritization
  and technological specialization. The results
  will be used also in designing postgraduate
  curricula.

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LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT STUDY IN
SLOVENIA
Conclusions
4. The results of the study will be primarily
used for the policy makers at national level
(Ministry for HEST, Ministry for economy and
Technological agency) and for Slovenian
stakeholders in EU promoted technological
platforms (for example ARTEMIS). 5. Due to high
fragmentation of RD and low level of
technological specialization, governmental bodies
should in the future pursue coherent policies
aiming at connection and interactive coordination
of policy instruments in RD, innovation,
financial and higher education domain.
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LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT STUDY IN
SLOVENIA
Some lessons

• Many unclosed discussions on expert panels and
  obviously unpredictable technological development
  confirmed that Technology Foresight cannot be
  one-time action it has to be executed regularly
  every few years
• The size of the country is an important
  restraining factor Slovenia with 2 mio
  inhabitants is forced to focus its RD and
  innovation potential on a very limited
  technological fields. It also increases
  vulnerability and ambiguity of results of
  Technology Foresight
• We should find out additional stimulus for
  private enterprises to participate in Technology
  Foresight more enthusiastically and to integrate
  its results into their business strategies.