Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making

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Third International Seville Conference
onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis
(FTA)Impacts and implications for policy and
decision-making
16th- 17th October 2008
UK Environmental Futures Identifying the most
important dimensions of uncertainty for the
environment
Gary Kass
Natural England
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UK Environmental Futures
Environment Research Funders Forum

• Content

ERFF brings together the major UK public sector
supporters of environmental science to maximise
the coherence and effectiveness of funding for UK
environmental sciences
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UK Environmental Futures
Outline
UK Futures Futures in Environmental Research and
Policy Dimensions of Uncertainty Project The
Final Shortlist Reflections Where next for
environmental futures?
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UK Environmental Futures
UK Futures
Governments have always been concerned about the
future. It is the extent to which this concern
has resulted in systematic, open and effective
long-term thinking which has changed. (UK
Public Administration Select Committee, 2007)
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UK Environmental Futures
Futures in Environmental Research and Policy
BSE was a catalyst for forward thinking The UK
Government responded broadly and deeply The UK
research sector has begun to respond The
Environment Research Funders Forum Living With
Environmental Change Programme
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UK Environmental Futures
Dimensions of Uncertainty
ERFF Board horizon scanning workshop and advisory
board
Dimensions of Uncertainty Study - Aims Identify
the most important dimensions of uncertainty that
could impact on the UKs interests over the next
twenty years Frame a shared understanding of
the future environment for members of the UK
Environment Research Funders Forum (ERFF) Help
ERFF members identify shared priorities and
inform individual members own strategies
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UK Environmental Futures
Dimensions of Uncertainty
Phases

• Consultation - interviews workshops (108
  participants, 75 issues)
• Prioritization - online voting (80 participants,
  22 issues)
• Validation - workshop (72 participants, 11 issues)

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UK Environmental Futures
The Final Shortlist

• Changing ecosystems
• Reducing uncertainty around climate change
  impacts
• Transport and mobility
• Consequences of population movement
• Deploying technology

• Cities and the environment
• Economic growth within environmental limits
• Costs and benefits of renewable energy
• Food Production
• Sustainability of the water supply
• Changing behaviours

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UK Environmental Futures
Reflections
Environmental research needs to

• Anticipate the past doesnt define the future
• Integrate environment within its social and
  economic context
• Internationalise the UK environment in its
  international context
• Innovate develop policy tools for handling
  complexity uncertainty
• Lead strength visionstep up to the plate

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UK Environmental Futures
Reflections
Pit-falls and Elephant-traps

• Sins of commission you only get what you ask
  for
• Breadth vs depth capturing the richness of
  futures thinking
• Expert bias ensure balance in perspectives and
  challenge framings
• Collective action problems catalyse individuals
  or seek joint-action?
• Mission-creep what is are the purposes and
  limits of collaboration?

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UK Environmental Futures
Where next for environmental futures?
Initiatives in the UK

• Dept of Innovation, Universities and Skills
• UK Futures social and economic scenarios
• Foresight
• projects on Land Use and Energy
• Defra Delivery Network
• Shared Horizon Scanning initiative (CASCADE)
• UK Climate Impacts Programme
• UKCIP08 climate projections
• Natural England
• Scenarios for Englands Natural Environment
  (ScENE 2050)
• Living With Environmental Change (LWEC)

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UK Environmental Futures
Where next for environmental futures?
Areas for improvement

• Integration - systems approaches
• Partnership- shared future, shared environment,
  shared resource
• Collaboration - experts, stakeholders publics
• Policy-relevance - plugging-in drives direction
  application
• Knowledge exchange - the oil in the machine, but
  often ignored