Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making

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Third International Seville Conference
onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis
(FTA)Impacts and implications for policy and
decision-making
16th- 17th October 2008
Innovation System Management A new policy
framework for accelerating low carbon technologies
Dr. Simona O. Negro
Utrecht University The Netherlands
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Innovation System Management
Introduction

• Emerging technologies still reside in development
  stages
• Therefore diffusion patterns are missing and
  cannot be used for evaluation
•  How can we evaluate the success chances of an
  emerging technology?

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Innovation System Management
Theory

• Success and failure of technology diffusion is
  not only determined by
• technology characteristics and economics
• But also by the social system in which a
  technology - and the knowledge involved - is
  implemented or rejected Innovation System (IS)?

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Innovation System Management
System Functions (1/2)

• IS institutions, actors and organisations
• Within the Innovation System we want to
  understand what really happens
• Use the System Functions approach (Jacobsson and
  Johnson 2001 Hekkert et al. 2007)?
• Functions are the actual activities within the
  IS that influence the development, diffusion and
  implementation of a technology

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Innovation System Management
System Functions (2/2)
Function 1 Entrepreneurial Activities Function
2. Knowledge Development Function 3. Knowledge
Diffusion through networks Function 4. Guidance
of the Search Function 5. Market
Formation Function 6. Resource
Mobilisation Function 7. Support from Advocacy
Coalitions (Lobby activities)?
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Innovation System Management
Approach

• Historical event analysis map all activities
  1970-2007 by literature search, interviews
• Describe the individual fulfilment of system
  functions
• Identify interactions between system functions
• Analyse build-up of virtuous or vicious cycles
  (motors of change)?

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Innovation System Management
The evolution of Dutch PV
Period 1970-1993 The rise

• Guidance (F4) through white paper to save
  energy, reduce CO2
• Research (F2) on PV provides positive results
• Entrepreneurs have high expectations (F4)?
• Lobby (F7) for PV as RET
• Programmes (ISES NOZ-PV) set up (F4)?
• SES subsidy for small-scale and GEA for local
  authorities (F6)?
• -gtECN and RS higher efficiency module and pilot
  production line for multi c-Si PV
• -gt 1st modules on house roofs (Casticum, HHW,
  Barendrecht) (F1)?

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Innovation System Management
Period 1994-2000 Take-off

• 1994 Government wants to stop SES (-F4)
• Lobby manages to postpone it (F7) and obtain
  alternative regulations (F4)
• Take-off for PV in the NL
• 1997 Shell Solar PV production line (F1)?
• Energy companies introduce PV into market (F5)?
• Large-scale projects (Adam, Afoort, HAL) (F1)
• PV seen as promising RE supply option

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Innovation System Management
Period 2001-2003 Reverse of the medal

• 2001 Green energy market liberalised (-F4)?
• Government cuts subsidies, because PV is over
  stimulated (-F6)?
• Alternative subsidies (GP, WWF) and E companies
  (NUON, Eneco) (F6)?
• Platforms such as DE Koepel and Holland Solar
  and dedicated campaigns (Zonzeker etc) (F7)?
• 1 Large-scale project Floriade (F1)?
• However, entrepreneurs uncertain about political
  vision, PV not priority (-F4)?
• Shell leaves the NL, closes plant and production
  of solar panels stops (-F1)?

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Innovation System Management
Period 2003-2006 The fall

• 2003 Government removes EPR subsidy (-F4)?
• Lobby to find replacement programmes (F7)?
• MEP net metering introduced also for PV (F5)?
• However, as worldwide market grows, Dutch
  entrepreneurs focus on export and foreign markets
  due to better institutional conditions (-F4,
  -F5)?
• RD goes on in the NL (F2) but focussed on
  internl activities
• Holland Solar continues lobby for PV in the NL
  (F7) (Roadmap Solar Energy)?
• 2006 Govt suddenly removes MEP subsidy (-F4)?
• Dutch Market collapses (-F5)?

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Innovation System Management
Installed PV in the Netherlands per year
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Innovation System Management
Period 2007- future Revival?

• Coalition agreement (F4)?
• Platform to formulate recommendations for PV
  (F4)?
• Revival of entrepreneurial activities (F1)?
• European Science park between D-NL
• Sunrise pilot plant by Scheuten Solar
• CIS factory by APA
• RD to lower prices and increase efficiency (F2)?

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Innovation System Management
System Functions Analysis
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Innovation System Management
Discussion

• PV not further than pre-development phase
• Virtuous cycle is mainly science based good
  knowledge (F2, F3) and entrepreneurial activities
  (F1)?
• But unstable and unreliable guidance (-F4), lack
  of resources (-F6) and lobby activities (-F7)
  hamper market formation (-F5)?
• Entrepreneurs focus on export market
• Hardly any implementation in the NL failure
• Export and high level knowledge for export
  success
• Aim of IS is to develop, diffuse and implement
  technology
• Goals and targets set for the NL not reached

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Innovation System Management
Conclusion

• In order to make PV successful in the NL, need
  to stimulate the fulfilment of certain system
  functions
• F4 Uniform vision shared between govt and field
  for commitment
• F4 PV clear role in national energy supply
• F5 tailored market introduction, net metering,
  tariffs
• F3 feedback from learning experiences
• visibility of successful results and projects
  will lead to enthusiasm of buyers (F5) and
  investors (F6) -gt more entrepreneurs that stay in
  the NL (F1)