Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making

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Third International Seville Conference
onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis
(FTA)Impacts and implications for policy and
decision-making
16th- 17th October 2008
Complexity Scenarios for emerging techno-science
Douglas K. R. Robinson
TA-NanoNed MESA Institute of Nanotechnology
The
Institute of Governance Studies University of
Twente, NL robinson_at_constructive-ta.com
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Complexity Scenarios for Emerging Techno-Science
Managing for linearity in a non-linear world
Whilst the linear perspective remains

• Despite the acceptance that innovation is
  non-linear, we still use linear perspectives in
  both monitoring techno-scientific innovation and
  developing management strategies.
• For new and emerging techno-science, most FTA
  also has a linear script.
• This linear assumption is necessary in order to
  achieve outcomes, however, one would do better by
  creating a process of opening up the linear
  perspective and inserting non-linear explorations
  prior to closing down again to linear strategies
  (such as roadmapping).
• My interests lie in the trade-off between
  manageability and complexity.

Prognostics Center of Excellence Roadmap - NASA
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Complexity Scenarios for Emerging Techno-Science
Trade-off between manageability and complexity
Reconciliation? No ... but one can ride the
tension

• The goal of this paper, is to give an example of
  a process which attempts to reconcile the divide
  between manageability and complexity in order to
  achieve outcomes.
• One CAN ride the tension, however one can ride it
  better with tailored support tools which are
  closer to the context. (Tailored FTA)
• The complexity scenario technique is one tool
  that has been developed which attempts to
  reconcile the tension.

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Part 1 Embracing Complexity in the context of
prospective nanotechnology innovations
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Complexity Scenarios for Emerging Techno-Science
 
Nano and nano governance
Nano is difficult to pin down, but lets have a
go.

• Nano as material new materials
• Nano as enabling technology for improvements of
  other innovations
• Nano as vision of revolutionary changes
  (Industrial, ICT etc.)
• Presently discussions of nano governance and
  responsible innovation crosses these three in
  various ways key words are upstream engagement,
  lifecycle thinking, Occupational Health and
  Safety, Toxicity, Privacy, etc.
• Thus the selection environments are potentially
  changing in the forms of governance (in its
  broadest sense).
• To probe these changes we must take innovation
  and selection environment journeys into account.

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Complexity Scenarios for Emerging Techno-Science
Case Nanotechnology Governance Strategies
Entrance point Responsible RI
In the world of nanotechnology,
governance/management arrangements are evolving,
in various ways Actors are becoming pro-active
and engaging in the emergence of Responsible
Research and Innovation (RRI). - Anticipation
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Complexity Scenarios for Emerging Techno-Science
Innovation Journey Studies can help
The FRONTIERS FTA programme
Lots of case studies on journeys but selection
environments largely neglected! 5 FTA projects
of FRONTIERS 4 projects on technologies (drug
delivery, implants, lab-on-a-chip etc.) 1
project on selection environments
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Complexity Scenarios for Emerging Techno-Science
What has been done in earlier work (FTA 2006)
Broadening Roadmapping for emerging technology

• Two perspectives of path
• Evolutionary economics, on trajectories and
  paradigms. On the one hand we can speak of
  collectives (paradigms)
• on the other we can speak of individual
  strategies or specific projects (potential value
  chains).
• This has been described in some detail in
  Robinson and Propp (2008) TFSC and in their paper
  in FTA 2006

These can be useful outputs, but need to be
framed around complexities ...therefore
complexity scenarios as an entrance point
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Part 2 The FTA in context Informing the
approaches with STI-Studies
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The FTA Process in Brief
Document analysis conceptual frameworks applied
Combine conceptual frameworks, strategic
intelligence into Scenarios
Further refinement and feedback
Final report and recommendations strategy?
Further bilateral interactions FTA agent and
participant
Collating of workshop output
After period of time comparison with recent
developments
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Complexity Scenarios for Emerging Techno-Science
Complexity Scenarios as entrance point
Strategic Intelligence for interactive workshops
Create plausible storylines based on Innovation
Journeys, branches, forking, tensions etc. (K
next) But for controlled speculation add the
following .
Map expectations and how they translate into (and
shape) action
Anticipation in action /coordination (next slide)
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Complexity Scenarios for Emerging Techno-Science
Complexity Scenarios Important Elements 2/3
Anticipation-in-action and emerging structures
Shared Expectations can lead to Agendas and
coordinated action (as has been demonstrated
in van Merkerk and Robinson 2006 TASM). Can
give insight into emerging irreversibilities so
cio-technical entanglements which over time
enable and constrain alignments and activities
of persons, institutions and artifacts. As
these entanglements become tighter, options
are reduced, facilitating certain paths
whilst inhibiting others. Irreversibilities
grow over time, shaping and being shaped by
the historical affordance structures which
guide path dynamics. Other expectation
dynamics Anticipatory Action, Promise-Requirement,
Hyping to create expectations envelopes (niches
etc.) - Propp and Moors working paper 2008
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Complexity Scenarios for Emerging Techno-Science
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Complexity Scenarios for Emerging Techno-Science
Development Manufacture
Research Management
Wider Societal Uptake
Niche Experimentation
passive free particle
Up-Valuing ST findings
Embedment in cosmetics
Nano-sensor
Experimental device
Passive Embedded particle
Coatings for car windshields
Approved material
Innovative material
Nanofabrication
nanomaterial
Industrial knowledge
Embedded in sports ware
Active free particle ()
Nanofluidics
I put five possible selection forces coming from
outside the world of innovation development.
Each arena however acts as a selection
environment with its own specific interactions
between innovation and selection Info on
dynamics of each arena (including anticipations)
can help in controlled speculation network
analyses, expectations mapping, emerging
irreversibilites and path studies
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PART 3 THE STRUCTURE OF A COMPLEXITY SCENARIO
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Complexity Scenarios for Emerging Techno-Science
Complexity Scenarios for Emerging Techno-Science
.
Triggering event present opportunity for shifts.
EIs are brokendown.
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Complexity Scenarios for Emerging Techno-Science
Complexity Scenarios Example Thread
This scenario has 12 critical events these
capture shifts in innovation journeys and their
environments. It focuses on the influence of
soft law (codes of conducts, best practices,
standards etc.) on both the selection environment
and innovation journeys. It combines innovation
journeys, with innovation/ selection-environment
dynamics, paths in terms of evolving paradigms
and actor strategies, and anticipatory
coordination.
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Complexity Scenarios for Emerging Techno-Science
Complexity Scenarios Review of the stakeholder
interaction

• Picked up by participants and patterns
  recognised.
• Provided platform and ingredients for
  discussion
• Provided alternative futures with
  interchangeable elements
• Later stages, multi-path maps can come out of
  it.

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Complexity Scenarios for Emerging Techno-Science
Complexity Scenarios Key aspects I havent shown
today
But which are outlined in the paper

• In depth analysis of emerging paths through
  desk and field work
• The tensions and dilemmas in current nano
  governance debate
• Case study showing some of the key elements
  of RRI
• I welcome question on these issues

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Part 4 In Conclusion
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Complexity Scenarios for Emerging Techno-Science
Complexity Scenarios in the FTA deployment cycle
Role in the workshop
Key question Resources for continuous cycles
large firms can..what about start-ups?
Suggestion Have Multi-Path Maps as output thus
can draw on sunk resources. Locate such
deployment cycles in industry associations,
networks. Interactive Forums can play a role.
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Complexity Scenarios for Emerging Techno-Science
Wrapping Up
Whilst opening up
The paper accepts that the tension between
embracing complexity and achieving outcomes is
there... and one must take both sides into
account to effect any change in early stages of
emerging ST. I have emphasised that STI-studies
can give insights into the highly uncertain world
of emerging ST can provide a foothold for
controlled speculation and plausible
scenarios For reflexive and ongoing FTA (see FTA
3.0) one must think about resources...where
should such FTA be placed and when should the
cycle be renewed...large firms can afford it,
smaller firms, Research Groups, etc. have this
challenge. For roadmapping outcomes in emerging
situations Multi-Path Mapping is useful as a
reference point. Number of paths ID, key ones
gone into detail, this data is always there and
can be a reference point as an intermediary
between business as usual and applying the
deployment cycle
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Complexity Scenarios for Emerging Techno-Science
Gaps to be explored and filled
For FTA in context further research needed on
Selection Environments the co-evolution of
selection processes and innovation
processes Emerging Irreversibilties Transition
from HOT to COLD Situations
other indicators of emerging paths such
information can help frame scenarios and
multi-path maps in controlled speculations Ri
ding the tension Connecting non-linearity with
the linear script of future studies in order
to give FTA in context and achieve outcomes
in emerging situations Capacity for FTA in
context Approaches should be tailored not only
to be sensitive to context, but used in
context. Can actors with limited resources
invest in such FTA? Should it be located in
industry consortia and kept very detailed, or
perhaps more streamlined?
There is recognition of this in FTA 2008 a
growing trend?
Tailoring approaches (Schoen et al.),
expectations as SI (Bakker, Parandian),
,locations of FTA (Wouter Boon), real-world
scenarios (Kosow et al), FTA 2.0 and 3.0
(Pilkahnen)
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Thank You For Your Attention Douglas
Robinson Robinson_at_constructive-ta.com