www'jiscinfonet'ac'uk

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Come On Down Risk in Game Shows and Real Life
John Burke
www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk
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Perception and Reality

• He doesnt bite, hes just a big softy!
• Spinach tastes really good!
• Politicians have our best interests at heart
• There wont be any blame on you if it all goes
  pear-shaped
• The technology never goes wrong
• Youve won a free holiday
• Buying this will save you money!

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Perception and Reality 2

• Video The Wheel

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Are You Willing To Take Risks?
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Emotional Perception of Risk
Personal involvement Personal interest
involved Third Party involvement A question of
consequence?
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The Monty Hall Dilemma
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The Monty Hall Dilemma
Hides a goat
Hides a goat
Hides the car
Stay
Switch
Stay
Switch
Stay
Switch
Getagoat
Getthecar
Getagoat
Getthecar
Getthecar
Getagoat
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Are You Willing To Take Risks (2)?

• Let me offer you some money
• or a wager

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Expected Monetary Value (EMV)
EMV (p x o) p probabilityo outcome EMV A
1 x 20 20 EMV B 0.5 x 50 25
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Calculating Contingency
EMV S(p x o) p probabilityo outcome 10
risks all p50 o2k EMV 0.5 x 2k x 10
10k
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High Impact Risks
EMV S(p x o) p probabilityo outcome 1 risk
p5 o250k EMV 0.05 x 250k 12.5k
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Calculating Contingency
EMV S((p1 x o1)..(pn x on)) p probabilityo
outcomen number of risks EMV1 1 X 100
100EMV2 0.5 X 250 125EMV3 0.6 x 240
144 EMV 100 125 144 369
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Calculating Contingency
EMV S((p1 x o1)..(pn x on))
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Deal or No Deal?
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