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Enrollment Forecasting Workshop

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Title: Enrollment Forecasting Workshop

1
Enrollment Forecasting Workshop

March 2004

2
Outline

Two-Year College Growth Projections
Policy Factors that may Affect
Future Enrollment
College Enrollment Plan

3
Approach Taken SBCTC Enrollment Forecast for 2012

Developed population-based enrollment projection
Identified demographic trends that are likely to
affect enrollment demand
Explored policy factors related to system mission
that could affect need for enrollment access

4
Population-based Enrollment Projection

Based on 2003 enrollments and state population
projections
Projected state and contract enrollments
separately - different enrollment patterns
Projected by year of age and by type of
enrollment
Reduced projection to reflect lower future WRT

5
Historical CTC Enrollments
170,000
160,000
150,000
140,000
FTES
9.9
130,000
120,000
4.6
110,000
100,000
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
State Allocated
State Enrollments
Contract Enrollments
Source Office of Financial Management
6
2003 State Population 6.1 Million
gt150,000 50,000 149,999
Less than 50,000
Source Office of Financial Management
7
2012 Population 6.8 Million
Projected to grow by more than 20,000
Very high growth as percent of current
population
Source Office of Financial Management
8
2012 Population - Change
gt 17 5 - 17 lt 5
Source Office of Financial Management
9
2003 CTC Enrollments by Age
FTES State 139,000 Contract 24,600 163,600
Source Office of Financial Management
10
2003 2013 State Population by Age
Young students in ten years
Young students today
Source Office of Financial Management
11
CTC State Enrollment Projection to 2012 Based on
Population Growth
12,000
WF Adjustment
Source Office of Financial Management
12
CTC Total Enrollment Projection to 2012
Based on Population Growth Total Enrollment
Increase 13,900
177,788
151,478
Source Office of Financial Management
13
Demographic Trends

Increasing share of recent high school graduates
Increasing participation rate of over 50 age
group
Increasing non-English speaking population

14
Demographic Trend 1 Increasing participation
rate from High School graduates

An increasing share of HS graduates enter
post-secondary education immediately after high
school, a long term trend that is likely to
continue through the next decade.
This trend is consistent with the nature of the
job market at least two years of post-secondary
education needed to gain a living wage job.

15
Projected Growth in High School graduates
Record-setting graduating class
Extrapolation based on population growth
Actual
OFM Forecast
16
Student Choice Seen in IncreasedHigh School to
CTC Rate

The percent of high school graduates going to
college has increased steadily
The percent of high school graduates selecting
two-year colleges has grown faster than the
number selecting four-year institutions

19
31
17
Growth in 19 year olds 2000-2010Washington State
by race ethnic group

The 19 year old population will grow by nearly
10,000 in this decade.
Half of that growth will be young people of color
primarily Latino/Hispanic and Asian/Pacific
Islander

18
CTC Total Enrollment Projection to 2012Effect
of Increasing Number of High School graduates
5,300
Increased demand for transfer programs
19
Demographic Trend 2 Increasing participation
by older students

As baby boomers age, the number of persons over
age 50 will surge dramatically in the next
decade.
Baby boomers may be more likely than their
predecessors to engage in higher education in
their later years. They are working longer and
need to update skills to stay in the job market.

20
CTC Total Enrollment Projection to 2012Effect
of Increasing Participation by Age 50
2,400
Increased demand for workforce training
21
Demographic Trend 3 Increasing non-English
speaking population

One of the fastest growing populations segments
in Washington is adults who speak a language
other than English at home and report that they
speak English with difficulty.
Between the 1990 and the 2000 Censuses, this
population grew from 4 percent to
7 percent of the total population.
This increased population will drive increased
demand for enrollment, even at historical ESL
participation rates.

22
Non-English Speaking Population in 2000- 7 of
State Population
Above State Average Below State
Average
Source US Census Bureau
23
Latino/Hispanics as Share of Civilian Labor Force
Source OFM Long Term Forecast
24
CTC Total Enrollment Projection to 2012Effect
of Increasing non-English speaking Population
3,900
Increased demand for basic skills programs
25
Summary Increase based on Population
Demographics Participation
26
III. Two-Year Colleges

Policy Factors Affecting Future Enrollments

27
1. Prepare more students for work

There is a shortage of skilled workers in
Washington state (Workforce Board, skills gap).
Shifts in state demographics will lead to
increasing demand for adult basic education and
English language training before students can
transition to college level work.
It is critical for the states future workforce
for the two-year colleges to transition future
students from basic skills to college level, and
then to retain them, so that they are prepared
for work.

28
1. Prepare more students for work (contd)

Challenges
Currently only ¼ of basic skills students
transition to college level.
Latino-Hispanics who are expected to constitute
over 15 of the civilian work force by 2010 (up
from 3.8 in 1990) transition from basic skills
at a much lower rate. Only about 1 out of every
12 Latino Hispanics students makes the transition
today.
When basic skills students do make the
transition, they only take 1/3 the number of
credit hours that other students take.

29
1. Prepare more students for work (contd)

Policy Approach
Assume that the rate of transition to college
increases over 1/3 over the next ten years
Enrollment impact this would generate demand
for an additional 2,300 FTES by 2010
Further assume that former basic skills
students, over the next ten years, increase their
college credit hours to the same levels as other
students
Enrollment impact this would generate demand
for an additional 5,000 FTES by 2010

30
Increase Job Preparation
7,300
31
2. Reduce disparity in two-year college access
across the state

Participation in two-year college education
varies across the state, with high participation
rates along the I-5 corridor and in certain
eastern Washington counties.

32
2003 Community Technical CollegesParticipation
Rates by County Average 3.86 per 1,000
Source Office of Financial Management, Fall
2002, State Supported Headcount
33
2. Reduce disparity in two-year college access
across the state (contd)

The State Board has historically followed a
policy to address this disparity in its
allocation of enrollment growth, by setting aside
some portion of the growth and allocating it to
colleges with relative low service levels.
Policy Approach
Increase enrollments in below average counties to
3.86 students per 1,000 population (2003 average)
Accomplish this service increase by 2012
Enrollment impact If enrollments were actually
to increase as described, demand would increase
by 8,300 FTES in 2012

34
Reduce Disparity
8,300
35
Policy Factors Conclusions

These two factors overlap one another an
increase in job preparation would result in
higher participation rates in many of the
currently underserved counties.
Of the two, increased job preparation more fully
represents a policy and mission-based approach.

36
Increase Job Preparation
7,300
37
Summary
38
College Comprehensive Enrollment Plan