Enrollment Forecasting Workshop

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Enrollment Forecasting Workshop

• March 2004

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Outline

• Two-Year College Growth Projections
• Policy Factors that may Affect
• Future Enrollment
• College Enrollment Plan

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Approach Taken SBCTC Enrollment Forecast for 2012

• Developed population-based enrollment projection
• Identified demographic trends that are likely to
  affect enrollment demand
• Explored policy factors related to system mission
  that could affect need for enrollment access

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Population-based Enrollment Projection

• Based on 2003 enrollments and state population
  projections
• Projected state and contract enrollments
  separately - different enrollment patterns
• Projected by year of age and by type of
  enrollment
• Reduced projection to reflect lower future WRT

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Historical CTC Enrollments
170,000
160,000
150,000
140,000
FTES
9.9
130,000
120,000
4.6
110,000
100,000
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
State Allocated
State Enrollments
Contract Enrollments
Source Office of Financial Management
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2003 State Population 6.1 Million
gt150,000 50,000 149,999
Less than 50,000
Source Office of Financial Management
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2012 Population 6.8 Million
Projected to grow by more than 20,000
Very high growth as percent of current
population
Source Office of Financial Management
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2012 Population - Change
gt 17 5 - 17 lt 5
Source Office of Financial Management
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2003 CTC Enrollments by Age
FTES State 139,000 Contract 24,600 163,600
Source Office of Financial Management
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2003 2013 State Population by Age
Young students in ten years
Young students today
Source Office of Financial Management
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CTC State Enrollment Projection to 2012 Based on
Population Growth
12,000
WF Adjustment
Source Office of Financial Management
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CTC Total Enrollment Projection to 2012
Based on Population Growth Total Enrollment
Increase 13,900
177,788
151,478
Source Office of Financial Management
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Demographic Trends

• Increasing share of recent high school graduates
• Increasing participation rate of over 50 age
  group
• Increasing non-English speaking population

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Demographic Trend 1 Increasing participation
rate from High School graduates

• An increasing share of HS graduates enter
  post-secondary education immediately after high
  school, a long term trend that is likely to
  continue through the next decade.
• This trend is consistent with the nature of the
  job market at least two years of post-secondary
  education needed to gain a living wage job.

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Projected Growth in High School graduates
Record-setting graduating class
Extrapolation based on population growth
Actual
OFM Forecast
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Student Choice Seen in IncreasedHigh School to
CTC Rate

• The percent of high school graduates going to
  college has increased steadily
• The percent of high school graduates selecting
  two-year colleges has grown faster than the
  number selecting four-year institutions

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Growth in 19 year olds 2000-2010Washington State
by race ethnic group

• The 19 year old population will grow by nearly
  10,000 in this decade.
• Half of that growth will be young people of color
  primarily Latino/Hispanic and Asian/Pacific
  Islander

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CTC Total Enrollment Projection to 2012Effect
of Increasing Number of High School graduates
5,300
Increased demand for transfer programs
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Demographic Trend 2 Increasing participation
by older students

• As baby boomers age, the number of persons over
  age 50 will surge dramatically in the next
  decade.
• Baby boomers may be more likely than their
  predecessors to engage in higher education in
  their later years. They are working longer and
  need to update skills to stay in the job market.

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CTC Total Enrollment Projection to 2012Effect
of Increasing Participation by Age 50
2,400
Increased demand for workforce training
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Demographic Trend 3 Increasing non-English
speaking population

• One of the fastest growing populations segments
  in Washington is adults who speak a language
  other than English at home and report that they
  speak English with difficulty.
• Between the 1990 and the 2000 Censuses, this
  population grew from 4 percent to
• 7 percent of the total population.
• This increased population will drive increased
  demand for enrollment, even at historical ESL
  participation rates.

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Non-English Speaking Population in 2000- 7 of
State Population
Above State Average Below State
Average
Source US Census Bureau
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Latino/Hispanics as Share of Civilian Labor Force
Source OFM Long Term Forecast
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CTC Total Enrollment Projection to 2012Effect
of Increasing non-English speaking Population
3,900
Increased demand for basic skills programs
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Summary Increase based on Population
Demographics Participation
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III. Two-Year Colleges

• Policy Factors Affecting Future Enrollments

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1. Prepare more students for work

• There is a shortage of skilled workers in
  Washington state (Workforce Board, skills gap).
• Shifts in state demographics will lead to
  increasing demand for adult basic education and
  English language training before students can
  transition to college level work.
• It is critical for the states future workforce
  for the two-year colleges to transition future
  students from basic skills to college level, and
  then to retain them, so that they are prepared
  for work.

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1. Prepare more students for work (contd)

• Challenges
• Currently only ¼ of basic skills students
  transition to college level.
• Latino-Hispanics who are expected to constitute
  over 15 of the civilian work force by 2010 (up
  from 3.8 in 1990) transition from basic skills
  at a much lower rate. Only about 1 out of every
  12 Latino Hispanics students makes the transition
  today.
• When basic skills students do make the
  transition, they only take 1/3 the number of
  credit hours that other students take.

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1. Prepare more students for work (contd)

• Policy Approach
• Assume that the rate of transition to college
  increases over 1/3 over the next ten years
• Enrollment impact this would generate demand
  for an additional 2,300 FTES by 2010
• Further assume that former basic skills
  students, over the next ten years, increase their
  college credit hours to the same levels as other
  students
• Enrollment impact this would generate demand
  for an additional 5,000 FTES by 2010

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Increase Job Preparation
7,300
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2. Reduce disparity in two-year college access
across the state

• Participation in two-year college education
  varies across the state, with high participation
  rates along the I-5 corridor and in certain
  eastern Washington counties.

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2003 Community Technical CollegesParticipation
Rates by County Average 3.86 per 1,000
Source Office of Financial Management, Fall
2002, State Supported Headcount
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2. Reduce disparity in two-year college access
across the state (contd)

• The State Board has historically followed a
  policy to address this disparity in its
  allocation of enrollment growth, by setting aside
  some portion of the growth and allocating it to
  colleges with relative low service levels.
• Policy Approach
• Increase enrollments in below average counties to
  3.86 students per 1,000 population (2003 average)
• Accomplish this service increase by 2012
• Enrollment impact If enrollments were actually
  to increase as described, demand would increase
  by 8,300 FTES in 2012

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Reduce Disparity
8,300
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Policy Factors Conclusions

• These two factors overlap one another an
  increase in job preparation would result in
  higher participation rates in many of the
  currently underserved counties.
• Of the two, increased job preparation more fully
  represents a policy and mission-based approach.

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Increase Job Preparation
7,300
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Summary
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College Comprehensive Enrollment Plan

• Institution Mission and Goals
• Situation Analysis
• Assumptions used in plan development
• Enrollment projection and goals
• Enrollment Strategies
• Action Plan
• Evaluation

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Institution Mission and Goals

• Basic mission
• Philosophy
• Goals
• What makes the college unique and
  distinguishes it from others

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Situation Analysis

• Demographic trends
• Environmental factors
• College strengths and weaknesses
• Admissions and retention data
• Institutional image
• Information on primary and target markets
• Enrollment projections

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Assumptions used in plan development

• Future buildings and locations
• Population growth
• Funding levels
• New programs
• Local economy

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Enrollment projection and goals

• Overall and program level
• Transfer, workforce, basic skills, developmental
• Headcount and FTE
• Location(s)
• Ethnicity, age
• Retention and admission

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Enrollment Strategies

• Broad statements on how to reach goals
• Focus in on when and what will be the most
  effective

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Action Plans

• Tactics and activities to accomplish strategies
• Description of activity
• Timetable
• Who responsible
• Resources
• How to measure, control and evaluate

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Evaluation

• Review plan regularly
• Establish process and responsibility for
  evaluation
• Identify key points of time for evaluation

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Questions