3. City population trends

1
3. City population trends

• In general there is a concern that continued fast
  urbanisation in the post-apartheid period will
  overwhelm the capacity of cities to accommodate
  all residents
• What are the real settlement dynamics and their
  likely impact?

• City to city migration
• Intra-city movements of people
• International migration
• Other demographic shifts, notably from HIV/AIDS
• Scenarios and implications

• Key issues examined in the report
• Growth trends in nine SACN cities and secondary
  cities
• Rural-urban migration and reverse migration

2
3. City population trends

• Between 1996-2001 SAs pop grew 10,44 (or 2,01
  / yr)
• Between 1996-2001 9 cities grew 14,82 (or 2,80
  / yr)
• But this picture of faster big city growth must
  be nuanced

• SA cities growth slower than national pop growth
  over 55 years
• Slower than in the 1960s
• And slower than in the 1991-96 period

3
3. City population trends

• Not all the 9 cities are growing at the same pace
• According to census data 3 groups

• Fast growth cities growing at btwn 3,4 - 4,1
  per annum
• Stable growth cities growing at btwn 2,3 - 2,4
  per annum
• Slow growth cities growing at btwn 0,6 - 1,3
  per annum
• So 4 SACN cities grew at a rate slower than
  population growth outside 21 largest cities in SA
  a rate of only 1,4 per annum

4
3. City population trends

• 96-01 population growth in specific cities

5
3. City population trends

• But fast growth SACN cities are not growing
  nearly as fast as some hyper-growth secondary
  cities
• And slow growth cities are not seeing
  depopulation as in some secondary cities

6
3. City population trends

• Migration is the main reason for differences in
  city growth
• Large proportion of SA population on the move.
  But the dynamics are not easy to read

• Massive rural to rural migration
• Permanent in-migration to urban areas balanced
  by returns to rural areas later in life.
  Under-urbanisation?
• Circular migration as strong as ever
• Rural to urban migrants are getting younger
  (especially 15-19 year olds)
• City to city migration is increasing
• Foreign in-migration increasing, especially
  asylum seekers

7
3. City population trends

• Some cities are seeing as many people moving out
  as moving in, and large outmigration to other
  SACN cities

8
3. City population trends

• SA cities are in the middle of a demographic
  transition, which is seeing move to smaller,
  nuclear households, decline in fertility, etc
• Hard to read the impact of HIV/AIDS within this,
  especially with roll-out of ARVs

• Are we already seeing
• An accellerated decline in fertility?
• Above normal rate of popu-lation decline in 20-39
  yr olds?
• Urban to rural return migration, especially among
  women, as they go home to die?

9
3. City population trends

• In the intersection of these
• forces three likely scenarios

• Continued very fast growth of a core of cities,
  hand in hand with very slow growth in others as
  people leave these centres Gauteng polycentric
  urban region equivalent in size to some of
  worlds largest megacities?
• All cities drop back to a stable growth path.
  Some slightly faster or slower
• All cities dragged back to a weak growth path
  under impact of under-urbanisation and HIV/AIDS,
  with depopulation in some

Gauteng poly-centric urban region Pop 14,6 m ?