Utahs Long Term Population Projections

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Utahs Long Term Population Projections
Prepared by The Governors Office of Planning
Budget
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(No Transcript)
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Historical Data
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Utah is in the Center of the Fastest Growing Area
of the Country
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Utahs Fastest Growing Counties1990 - 2000
BOX ELDER
CACHE
RICH
WEBER
MORGAN
DAVIS
DAGGETT
SUMMIT
SALT LAKE
TOOELE
WASATCH
UINTAH
UTAH
DUCHESNE
JUAB
40.0 Increase or Greater
CARBON
Increase of 20.0 - 39.9
SANPETE
EMERY
MILLARD
GRAND
Increase of less than 20
SEVIER
PIUTE
BEAVER
WAYNE
GARFIELD
IRON
SAN JUAN
WASHINGTON
KANE
Source US Census Bureau
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Utahs Population Centers

• These counties are home to 1,813,669 residents,
  or 76 of the states population.
• Three out of every four people in Utah live along
  the Wasatch Front.

Source U.S. Census Bureau
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Utahs Population Centers
BOX ELDER
CACHE
RICH
WEBER
MORGAN
DAVIS
DAGGETT
SUMMIT
SALT LAKE
TOOELE
WASATCH
UINTAH
UTAH
DUCHESNE

• These counties are home to 1,973,207 residents,
  or 83 of the states population.

JUAB
CARBON
SANPETE
EMERY
MILLARD
GRAND
SEVIER
PIUTE
BEAVER
WAYNE
GARFIELD
IRON
SAN JUAN
WASHINGTON
KANE
Source U.S. Census Bureau
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Utahs Population Centers
BOX ELDER
CACHE
RICH
WEBER
MORGAN
DAVIS
DAGGETT
SUMMIT
SALT LAKE
TOOELE
WASATCH
UINTAH
UTAH
DUCHESNE

• These counties are home to 2,169,373 residents,
  or 91 of the states population.

JUAB
CARBON
SANPETE
EMERY
MILLARD
GRAND
SEVIER
PIUTE
BEAVER
WAYNE
GARFIELD
IRON
SAN JUAN
WASHINGTON
KANE
Source U.S. Census Bureau
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Components of Change

• Migration contributed 22 of population increase
  from 1950 2004
• During the 1990s, migration rose to 36.
• In 2005, migration was 52 of total population
  growth
• Migration projected to be 26 from 2005 2035

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2005 Baseline ResultsPopulation
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A 100 Year Look at Utahs Population
Utah Population 1950 to 2050
Growth
Sources Historical, U.S. Census Bureau
Projected, 2005 Baseline Projections
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State of Utah Components of Population Change
Source 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB
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Fertility Rates for Utah and the U.S.
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Projected Median Age for Utah and the United
States
Source 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB
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Growth of School-Age Population 2000 to 2030
Source 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB.
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Growth of 65 and Older Age Group 2000 to 2030
Source 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB.
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Age Group Growth Rate Comparison
Source 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB.
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Utahs Changing Age Structure
Female
Male
Source Provisional 2004 Baseline Projections,
Governors Office of Planning and Budget
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Utahs Changing Age Structure
Source 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB.
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Historical and Projected Dependency Ratios for
Utah and the U.S.
Source 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB.
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Utah Dependency Ratios 1990 to 2050
Source 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB.
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U.S. Dependency Ratios 1990 to 2050
Source 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB.
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2005 Baseline ResultsEmployment
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Employment Growth by Decade for Utah and the U.S.
Source 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB
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Utah Employment by Industry as a Share of Total
State Employment
Source 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB
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Summary

• Utah has higher rates of economic and population
  growth than the nation.
• While Utah is becoming more like the nation, it
  will continue to have unique demographic
  characteristics that set it apart.
• Utahs population composition is aging, with
  large growth rates projected for the retirement
  age population
• Because of a strong and vibrant economy, with
  proper planning Utah will be able to deal with
  this growth