EPIS October 23 2005

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EPIS October 23 2005

• Alan Montague
• [phone]
• 0418 337 262
• alan.montague_at_rmit.edu.au

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INTRODUCTIONTODAY I WILL COVER

• HYPOTHETICAL WHAT ADVICE DO WE GIVE
• THE INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON OF EDUCATION ISSUES
• DISCUSSING THE CONTEXT AGAINST ADDITIONAL
  AUSTRALIAN AND VICTORIAN DATA
• REAL SKILLS REAL SUCCESS GENERIC/EMPLOYABILITY
  SKILLS
• YOUR PROJECTS

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Hypothetical Outline

• Name (pseudonym of course)
• Age
• What school subjects liked?
• What are they good at?
• Part time work?
• Skills, hobbies interests

• Aspirations?
• Recommendations

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Context

• The following presentation is based on
  information from
• Education at a Glance 2005 which can be found at
  http//www.oecd.org/edu/eag2005
• Australian Jobs 2005
• Other research with sources identified

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Role of Education

• The following points quoted from Education at a
  Glance OECD Indicators 2005 neatly places the
  purposes of education in perspective.
• Education and lifelong learning today play a
  critical role in the development of our economies
  and societies.
• This is true in the worlds most advanced
  economies as well as in those currently
  experiencing periods of rapid growth and
  development.
• Human capital has long been identified as a key
  factor in driving economic growth and improving
  economic outcomes for individuals, while evidence
  is growing of its influence on non-economic
  outcomes including health and social inclusion.

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• Education at a Glance 2005 provides a rich,
  comparable and up-to-date collection of
  indicators on the performance of education
  systems. While the focus is on the 30 OECD
  countries, the indicators also include an
  increasing level of coverage of partner countries
  from throughout the world. The indicators look at
  who participates in education, what is spent on
  it, how education and learning systems operate
  and a wide range of outcomes ranging from how
  well secondary school children can solve problems
  to the effect of education on adults chances of
  employment.
• The figures are based on a presentation of the
  results of the 2003 survey of the Programme for
  International Student Assessment (PISA)

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Media Release from OECD

• OECD calls for broader access to post-school
  education and training
• 13/09/2005 People are facing growing
  pressures to go on developing skills and
  knowledge over their working life-time as job
  mobility increases and job tasks become more
  complex, and governments in many countries need
  to do more to foster education and training at
  all stages of peoples lives, according to the
  latest edition of the OECD's annual Education at
  a Glance.

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Educational attainment of the adult population
average number of years in the education system
(2003)
Comes in 10th
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Media Release from OECD

• Education is a gateway to employment, and in
  almost all OECD countries, educational attainment
  levels continue to rise. On average, three
  quarters of people born in the 1970s have gone
  all the way through secondary school, now the
  essential baseline qualification for successful
  entry into the labour market, compared with only
  half of those born in the 1940s.

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Young people in Victoria
Setting the Pace www.dsf.org.au/papers/174.htm
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Full-time Engagement15-19 year-olds

March to May, ABS Labour Force Survey
Setting the Pace www.dsf.org.au/papers/174.htm
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Year 12 retention

Schools Statistics Collection, ABS Schools
Australia
Setting the Pace www.dsf.org.au/papers/174.htm
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Media Release from OECD

• education and training are also crucial for
  maintaining and improving peoples employability.
  Despite politicians promises, adult training
  opportunities still seem to be skewed more
  towards the better-skilled and those who already
  have jobs than towards people looking for work.

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post-school education and training opportunities

• While post-school education and training
  opportunities are generally as accessible to
  women as to men among OECD countries, they remain
  less frequent for those who need them most, such
  as the unemployed or people in low-skilled jobs.
  Participation rates (across the 30 OECD
  countries) for those who have not completed upper
  secondary education are less than half of those
  with upper secondary education and only around a
  quarter of those with tertiary education.
• Quoting OECD media release

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Labour force participation by level of
educational attainment

• The adequacy of workers skills and the capacity
  of the labour market to supply jobs that match
  those skills are important issues for policy
  makers. This indicator examines the relationship
  between educational attainment and labour force
  activity, first comparing employment rates in
  general and then unemployment rates by gender and
  changes over time in unemployment rates. The
  employment rate is defined as the
  employment-to-population ratio the unemployment
  rate is defined in traditional economic terms as
  the unemployment-to-labour force ratio.
• Quote ED at a Glance 05

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Employment rates by educational attainment (2003)
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Employment rates by educational attainment (2003)
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Education and work status of the youth population

• The following few slides cover the expected
  years that young people spend in education,
  employment and nonemployment, and examines the
  education and employment status of young people.
  During the past decade, young people have spent
  longer in initial education, with the result that
  they delay their entry into the world of work.
  Part of this additional time is spent combining
  work and education, a practice that is widespread
  in some countries. Once young people have
  completed their initial education, access to the
  labour market is often impeded by spells of
  unemployment or non-employment. On the basis of
  the current situation of persons between the ages
  of 15 and 29, this indicator gives a picture of
  the major trends affecting the transition from
  education to work.

Quote OECD 05
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The following Chart shows

• The Share of the 25-to-29-year-olds who are
  unemployed and not in education, by level of
  educational attainment (2003)
• The height of the bars indicates the percentage
  of the age group not in education and unemployed
  for each level of attainment.

OECD 05
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a young person aged 15 in 2003 can

• On average among countries, a young person aged
  15 in 2003 can expect to continue in formal
  education for a little more than six and a half
  years. In 19 of the 28 countries for which data
  are available, this period ranges from near five
  and a half years to seven and a half years.
• In addition to the expected number of years spent
  in education, a young person aged 15 can expect
  to hold a job for 6.2 of the 14 years to come, to
  be unemployed for a total of 0.9 years and to be
  out of the labour market for 1.3 years. Countries
  vary the most in the cumulated duration spent in
  unemployment.

Quoted OECD 05
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20-to-24-year-olds not in education

• The percentage of 20-to-24-year-olds not in
  education ranges from 50 to 70 in most OECD
  countries. In 23 out of 27 OECD countries, more
  female than male 20-to-24-year-olds are in
  education. Males in the 20-to-24-year-old age
  group are more likely to be employed.
• In some countries, education and work largely
  occur consecutively, while in other countries
  they are concurrent. Work-study programmes,
  relatively common in European countries, offer
  coherent vocational education routes to
  recognised occupational qualifications. In other
  countries, initial education and work are rarely
  associated.

Quoted OECD 05
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The situation of the youth populationwith low
levels of education

• Entering the labour market is often a difficult
  period of transition. While the length of time
  that young people spend in education has
  increased, a significant proportion of young
  people remain neither in education nor working
  (i.e. they are either unemployed or not in the
  labour force). This situation gives particular
  cause for concern for younger age groups, many of
  whom have no unemployment status or welfare
  coverage.
• Quote OECD 05

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The situation of the youth population with low
levels of education (2003)
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Australian Unemployment Rate by Qualification May
2003 and 2004 ()
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From an Australian perspective

• Educational qualifications have an important
  impact on career options. In May 2004 almost six
  out of ten of those with Bachelor degrees were
  employed as Professionals and slightly less than
  four in ten of those with Certificate III/IV
  qualifications worked as Tradespersons.
• Jobs Outlook 05
• The educational profile of all occupations is
  shown in the table below.

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Australian Graduates - which disciplines do best
in the labour market?

• A survey undertaken by the Graduate Careers
  Council of Australia (GCCA) shows that four out
  of five79.7 of Bachelor degree graduates
  wanting full-time work were employed full-time in
  April 2004. Another 12.9 worked part-time or
  casually while looking for full-time work.
• Employment outcomes have remained high over the
  past decade (see graph below).

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Graduates Employed Full-time 1990 to 2004 ()
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best graduate job outcomes

• Australian graduates from the disciplines of
  Pharmacy, Medicine, Veterinary Science,
  Dentistry, Mining Engineering, Civil Engineering,
  Nursing, Surveying, and Urban and Regional
  Planning had the best job outcomes92 or above
  in full-time employment.
• Special factors affect full-time employment for
  some disciplines. For example, medicine graduates
  have strong job outcomes due to the requirement
  to serve a registration year.

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Graduate Full-time Employment Outcomes Selected
Fields of Study, 2004 ()
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Starting salaries for graduates

• The median starting salary of all Bachelor degree
  graduates in first full-time employment and aged
  less than 25 years was 38 000 in 2004.
  Dentistry, 60 000 Optometry, 50 000 and
  Medicine, 50 000 are always the top ranked
  graduate starting salaries. These were followed
  in 2004 by Engineering, 41 000 and Education and
  Mathematics, both 40 000.
• Source GCCA, GradStats December 2004 and Gradlink

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Useful links

• www.gradlink.edu.au (more information on
  GradsOnline)
• www.ncver.edu.au (information on TAFE outcomes
  and Vocational Education and Training (VET)
  research)
• www.jobsearch.gov.au (graduate careers in
  Australian government and State agenciesclick on
  graduate links)

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Media Release from OECD

• What is more, OECD studies show that the earnings
  gap between the better-educated and those with
  lower qualifications is growing rather than
  shrinking. In all OECD countries, people without
  upper secondary education face a significantly
  higher, and growing, risk of unemployment. On
  average, 15 of 20-to-24-year-olds in OECD
  countries without upper secondary qualifications
  are unemployed, double the rate of those who have
  completed secondary school.

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Media Release from OECD

• The statistics in Education at a Glance provide
  governments with a basis for policy debate and
  decisions. In recent years, some countries have
  shown spectacular improvements in schooling
  performance. In Korea, for example, a striking
  97, of people born in the 1970s have completed
  upper secondary education, putting Korea in top
  place for this age group ahead of Norway with 95
  and Japan and the Slovak Republic with 94. By
  comparison, only 32 of Koreans born in the 1940s
  have upper secondary qualifications, leaving
  Korea trailing 24th out of the 30 OECD countries
  in this age group.  Portugal, starting from a
  much lower base, has raised the proportion of its
  citizens with upper secondary qualifications from
  only 10 of those born in the 1940s to 37 of
  those born in the 1970s.

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Target

• By 2010, 90 per cent of young people in Victoria
  will successfully complete Year 12 or equivalent.
• 2001 2002 2003
• 19 year-olds 75.7 75.8 77.5
• 18 to 24 yos 80.4 82.4 83.2

Annual Report 2003-04 Department of Education and
Training, Victoria
Setting the Pace ww.dsf.org.au/papers/174.htm
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Media Release from OECD

• Women now account for 57 of university-level
  graduates, although mainly in the humanities,
  health and welfare. The share of women graduates
  remains at 30 or below in mathematics, computer
  science, engineering, manufacturing and
  construction, and gender differences with regard
  to future studying intentions are often already
  clearly visible in the performance and attitudes
  of 15-year-olds.

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Media Release from OECD

• Rising tertiary education levels do not appear
  to have had a negative effect on the
  labour-market value of these qualifications. The
  returns to both individuals and society from
  investments in university education are positive
  and often large, both in financial terms as well
  as in terms of broader economic and social
  outcomes, such as increased labour productivity
  and better mental and physical health. The
  earnings premium for people with tertiary
  education, as opposed to those with only
  secondary education, grew further between 1997
  and 2003 in all but four of the 22 OECD countries
  with available data, on average by one percentage
  point each year. (This earnings premium ranges
  from around 25 in Denmark and New Zealand to
  between 50 and 119 in the Czech Republic,
  Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland,
  Italy, Portugal, Switzerland, the United Kingdom
  and the United States.)

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Australian Context

• Structural change
• Over the past few decades the Australian labour
  market has undergone considerable structural
  change. Ageing of the population, increased
  participation of women in the workforce, changes
  in industry structure and a requirement for
  greater flexibility have all contributed to
  marked changes in the labour market.
  Technological advancement, together with economic
  reforms has also helped to underpin significant
  productivity gains and strong employment growth
  over the period. For example, over the last 25
  years nearly 3.7 million jobs have been created".
  Jobs Outlook 05

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In the last 25 years

• Full-time employment is up by 1 825 200 or 34.7,
  
• Part-time employment is up by 1 864 300 or 190,
  have both increased strongly (see chart below)
  although the magnitude of the increase in
  part-time employment has been greater due largely
  to its growth coming from a much lower base.
  Despite the substantial growth in part-time work,
  almost three-quarters of Australias working
  population continue to be employed full-time.

Source Jobs Outlook 05
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Increasing part-time employment
Jobs Outlook 05
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The P/T Situation

• Females have accounted for 67.1 of part-time
  employment growth over the past 25 years.
• Male part-time employment has also increased
  considerably over the period up by 612 900 or
  293.1, although this has been from a relatively
  low base. Growth in part-time work has been
  supported by above average growth in industries
  with a high female representation as well as
  strong increases in part-time work opportunities
  offered by employers.
• Source Jobs Outlook 05

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jobs growth

• Against the backdrop of strong jobs growth and
  changing social attitudes the participation rate
  for females has also increased dramatically over
  the past 25 years up by 12.4 percentage points
  from 44.5 in March 1980 to 56.9 in March 2005.
  Over the same period, the male participation rate
  has declined to 71.9 (see chart next slide).
• Quote from Jobs Outlook 05

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Participation Rates, by Gender, Trend ()March
1980 to March 2005
Jobs Outlook 05
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education job prospects

• Clear returns to education can be measured in
  terms of individual job prospects individual
  earnings and overall economic growth
• Investment in education brings both individual
  and collective rewards. Better-educated adults
  are more likely to work, and earn more on average
  when they do so. These effects vary across
  countries and educational levels. A particularly
  strong employment effect applies to males without
  upper secondary education.

Quote Ed at a Glance 05
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males without upper secondary education

• are much less likely to work than those who
  complete this level. The sharpest earnings
  effects tend to be between those with tertiary
  qualifications and those who have only gained
  upper secondary or postsecondary non-tertiary
  qualifications. Whole-economy effects are harder
  to measure accurately, but the indicators show
  clear effects of human capital on productivity
  and economic growth

Quote Ed at a Glance 05
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Females with low levels of education are

• particularly unlikely to be in work, both
  compared with males with low levels of education
  and females with higher levels of education. This
  phenomenon is especially pronounced in Greece,
  Ireland, Italy, Mexico, Spain and Turkey, where
  fewer than 47 of females aged 25 to 64 without
  upper secondary completion are working, compared
  to over 70 of similarly educated males.
  Moreover, in these countries, the great majority
  of highly educated females are working at least
  70 of those with tertiary qualifications, except
  in Turkey, where it is 63.

Quote Ed at a Glance 05
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Official Version

• A number of factors have underpinned the growing
  incidence of part-time employment. In particular,
  changing work preferences relating to work/family
  balance and different social attitudes to gender
  roles have resulted in a greater preference, for
  some people, for shorter working hours.
• Quote Jobs Outlook 05

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Alternate View

• Money
• Disposable workforce
• Increased secondary and tertiary student
  employment
• Dismissal laws
• Government policy or lack of
• Retail service industry growth
• Other

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Expected years in education for a child who was
five in 2003

• exceeds 16 years in all countries except
  Luxembourg, Mexico, the Slovak Republic and
  Turkey, and is greatest in Australia, Belgium,
  Finland, Iceland, Sweden and the United Kingdom,
  at between 19 and 21 years.

Quote Ed at a Glance 05
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Young adults combine working and learning in
different ways, but a substantialnumber are
spending time doing neither
E D. A t a G l a n c E 0 5

• The transition from compulsory education to
  employment is very protracted in some OECD
  countries, with learning often interspersed with
  working. But students who reach their late 20s
  without gaining qualifications are seriously at
  risk
• Those without at least an upper secondary
  education face higher risk of unemployment. In
  Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, Germany,
  Poland and the Slovak Republic, over 15 of
  25-to-29-year-olds without upper secondary
  qualifications are unemployed.
• In some countries young people are spending
  substantial amounts of time neither in education
  nor in jobs (either unemployed or outside the
  labour force). The average time spent in this
  situation between age 15 and 29 exceeds two years
  in Belgium, the Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary,
  Italy, Mexico, Poland, the Slovak Republic,
  Spain, Turkey and the United States.

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Australian Teenage Job Market

• There have been significant changes in the
  teenage labour market over recent decades,
  particularly over the past 15 years, with a
  greater proportion of teenagers choosing to
  undertake further study rather than enter the
  full-time labour market (see chart below). As a
  result, while teenage full-time employment has
  fallen significantly down by 45.5, the number of
  teenagers in full-time study has increased by
  20.6.

Quote Jobs outlook 04
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Teenagers

• Many teenagers who 15 years ago would have worked
  full-time are now in full-time education. A large
  proportion of teenagers in study are also
  combining education with casual or part-time
  work. Reflecting this, teenage part-time
  employment has grown by 62.4 over the past 15
  years.
• Quote Jobs Outlook 05

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Teenagers in Full-time Education and Full-time
Work March 1990 to March 2005, 12 month averages
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Australian Unemployment Rate by Qualification May
2003 and 2004 ()
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OECD Media Release/Lifelong Learning

• Initial education alone is not enough to meet
  the rising and changing demand for skills,
  however. In countries like Denmark, Finland,
  Sweden, Switzerland and the United States, more
  than 40 of people in the labour force now take
  part in non-formal job-related education and
  training each year. By contrast, Greece, Hungary,
  Italy, Portugal and Spain provide such training
  to fewer than 10 of employees

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