Michael Sutherland, Yanlai Zhao, Dan Lane and Wojtek Michalowski,

1
Modelling Cumulative Marine Effects for Ocean
Governance

• Michael Sutherland, Yanlai Zhao, Dan Lane and
  Wojtek Michalowski,
• School of Management
• University of Ottawa,
• Rob Stephenson and Fred Page,
• Department of Fisheries and Oceans,
• St. Andrews Biological Station

OMRN Conference 2005, Ottawa
2
Outline

• Methodology
• GIS Processing
• Yield Valuation
• Issues
• Conclusions

3
(No Transcript)
4
An Aquaculture Case Study
Grand Manan, NB
5
Methodology and Model Summary
Marine Site Components Multicriteria Analysis
(Goal Hierarchy)
Site Options GIS Evaluations (participant
independent) as function of the spatial-temporal
inventory
6
(No Transcript)
7
Ecosystem Components Represented by Thematic
Layers
Socioeconomic Activities
Biological/Ecosystem Resources
Herring Weirs
Scallop urchin drags
Lobster traps
Fish Farm Sites
Recreation
8
(No Transcript)
9
Potential for Ecosystem Component Interaction
10
Ecosystem Interaction Rules
11
Yield Evaluation of Overlapping Components
B
A
AB
ABC
C
BC
AC
pairwise overlapping
Yield A Yield A Yield A(B) Yield A(C)
Yield A(BC)
12
Yield Evaluation of Overlapping Components
IE(1) a(2 on 1) Area of overlapping polygon
(2 on1)
13
Selected Area with Overlapping Layers
14
Selected Area with Overlapping Layers
15
Selected Area with Overlapping Layers
16
(No Transcript)
17
(No Transcript)
18
(No Transcript)
19
Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)

• Construction of the hierarchy model
• Pairwise comparison
• Synthesis of the priorities and ranking of the
  alternatives
• Expert Choice 11 Group Decisions (EC11)
• AHP computer implementation software

20
Hierarchical problem formulation Participant
dependent/Site independent
Level 1 Goal
Ecosystem Goal
Level 2 components
Resources
Habitat
Effluents
Activities
Level 3 Sub-Components
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
H4
H3
H2
H1
C3
C2
C1
A2
A3
A4
A5
A1
Level 4 Alternatives
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
21
5 Participant Groups

• Local Communities
• Federal Scientists
• Industrial Organizations
• Non-governmental Organizations
• Provincial Governments

22
Attributed weights of the 5 participants on the
4 components R, H, E and A (Resources, Habitat,
Effluents and Activities)
23
Ranked Results of Selected Area by Different
Participants
24
Issues and Conclusions

• The model design is in development but feasible
• Access to and availability of real-world data
• Access to reliable data of appropriate quality
  for further analysis
• The nature of stakeholder relationships that
  facilitates data sharing
• The stochastic nature of some data elements in
  the marine environment
• Establishing a means of scoring and ranking the
  multidimensional yield results for decision-making

25
Network Centres of Excellence
www.aquanet.lixar.net
26
Modelling Cumulative Marine Effects for Ocean
Governance

• Michael Sutherland, Yanlai Zhao, Dan Lane and
  Wojtek Michalowski,
• School of Management
• University of Ottawa,
• Rob Stephenson and Fred Page,
• Department of Fisheries and Oceans,
• St. Andrews Biological Station

OMRN Conference 2005, Ottawa