Growth Trends and Planning Solutions for Livable Places

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Growth Trends and Planning Solutions for Livable
Places

• Joseph Carreras
• Southern California Association of Governments
• November 30, 2001

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The 1939 Inter-regional Highways Vision
Who can say what new horizons lie before us if
we but have the initiative and imagination to
penetrate them--new economic horizons-new social
horizons-new horizons in many fields, leading to
new benefits for everyone, everywhere. General
Motors Futurama, 1939 New York Worlds Fair
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The Post War Sprawl Era Begins
1950, 1 in 14 Americans live in California
Source New York Times, U.S. Census
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The West and South are the Focus of National
Growth
2000, 1 in 8 Americans live in California
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LA Consolidated Metro Area Rank - Highest
Growth, Highest Density Level, Worst Smog, Tenth
worst commute time
1,842,116
2. Los Angeles
1,650,216
1. New York
1,184,519
9. Dallas
938,440
10. Houston
917,720
3. Chicago
881,020
4. Washington
786,051
5. San Francisco
363,697
7. Boston
295,526
6. Philadelphia
269,257
8. Detroit
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
1990 to 2000 population gain
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Do We Plan or Let the Chips Fall Where They May?
In 2000, 42 of Residents of the SCAG Region
Live Outside Los Angeles County
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By 2025, the Region will Add 6 million people to
its 2000 Shape
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Source California Department of Finance
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Growth Trends Over the Next 25 Years in Southern
California

• Add 6 million people or as many as over the last
  ¼ century
• Growth is inevitable and may equal two cities the
  size of Chicago
• Hispanics will make up 85 of net growth, Asians
  the remainder
• Dependent population rises from just under 40
  of past growth to over 60 of future growth
• Nearly 2 million more elderly and 2 million more
  youth under 20 years of age
• Elderly portion of growth will be 3 times higher
  than in the past, youth 20 higher
• Consequently, expect a
• Shrinking middle age group, shrinking middle
  class (?), shrinking economy (?)
• Sharp rise in transit dependent population and
  elderly housing demand

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Aging Baby Boomers and Young Hispanics

• Will Baby Boomers age in Place? What are their
  next moves?
• Young Hispanics, where will they seek apartments
  and starter homes?
• Will immigrants continue to cram into crowded
  quarters as they come to the region for jobs?
• Citizen participation and voting on land use
  decisions may be affected by different lifestyle
  and housing needs between aging Baby Boomers and
  young Hispanics. How do we assure social equity
  goal achievement?
• Are mixed use developments an emerging trend
  driven by new lifestyle demands of empty-nest
  boomers in their mid 50s?

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Regional Livability Footprint
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Many seek affordable, starter homes in the Inland
Valley and desert areas.
Affordability Index
Median Home Prices
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Production Solutions Include Fiscal/Tax
Incentives, Developer Inducements and Public
Education About Housing Needs
This housing complex was designed to meet the
housing needs of larger Hispanics families in Los
Angeles.
Villa Del Pueblo Los Angeles, CA
Photo Source SCANPH
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A Model Multi-Family Housing Production Solution

• Project Participants
• Century Housing
• City of Whittier
• Federal Home Loan Bank
• Housing Authority, County of LA
• HUD Home Investment Partnership Program
• J. Dreyfuss Assoc., Inc.
• Killerfer Flammang Purtill Architects
• Lend Lease Real Estate Investments
• LINC Housing Corporation
• Vista Communities, Inc.
• Washington Mutual Bank

Seasons at the Hoover Whittier, CA Multi-Family
Historic Preservation
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Community Visioning -10 Examples

• 1. The City of Los Angeles Several major
  showcase civic, mixed-used, cultural,
  transit-oriented, LA river, corridor and new-town
  initiatives across the city
• 2. Pasadenas Mixed use showcase
  developmentPaseo Colorado along with old town
• 3. Queensway Bay, Pine Street and Blue line
  transit plaza development in Long Beach
• 4. Azusas Community Congress visioning project
  for the Monrovia Nursery and the Back to the
  Boulevard visioning effort in Whittier are
  achieving high civic participation goals in local
  planning
• 5. Bold mixed-use projects from Alhambras Plaza
  on Main to the Valencia Town Center in Santa
  Clarita are garnering design awards
• 6. The 3rd Street Pedestrian promenade flourishes
  in Santa Monica
• 7. Breas New Downtown offers lofts, in-fill
  housing and mixed use redevelopment
• 8. Anaheims new Disney Theme Park and Convention
  Center Expansion
• 9. Santa Anas Nine block Artist Village and
• 10.Cathedral Citys Downtown Revitalization in
  the Desert

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Mixed-use, Transit-oriented DevelopmentHollywood
Highland
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Redevelop Brownfields
Chesterfield Square
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Chesterfield Square Suburban Shopping Arrives in
South Central LA
Supported by

• Amistad housing project
• Federal Empowerment Zone tax incentives
• State enterprise zone incentives
• City of Los Angeles incentives
• Redevelopment area

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Coordinate Local Land Use With Future Growth
Projection
Planned land use is medium and high density...
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Coordinate Local Land Use With Future Growth
Projection
but existing land use is predominately low
density.
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Create Mechanisms for Consensus and Dispute
Resolution on Land Use Issues

• Regional Housing Needs Assessment and Housing
  Element reform
• Subregional Visioning efforts and Civic dialogue
• Monitor development and create benchmarks for
  success

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Multi-Family Housing Production
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Promote Fiscal Incentives

• Promote inter-regional partnerships 3 pilot
  programs in Southern California
• Promote job housing balance policies and social
  equity goals through smart growth
• Invest in infrastructure, including airports
• Workforce development
• Location Efficient Mortgage Demonstration with
  LEM Partners and FannieMae

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Commercial/Retail Viability is Shifting in
Response to Regional Centers at Freeway
Interchanges and Transit Stops so

• Invest in citizen participation
• Promote local serving jobs downtown and on main
  street
• Avoid blight along commercial strips by using
  multifamily housing as a buffer between business
  nodes, establish gateways, use banners and
  streetscapes
• Use housing in weak commercial areas and mix with
  retail
• Beware of big signs on thin poles

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A Regional and State Compact On Growth

• Connect consensus building, civic visioning
  initiatives, such as
• Community urban village efforts and strategies
• Sub-area planning efforts from the SOAR
  initiatives in Ventura County to the Integrated
  Planning Process in Riverside County
• Regional visioning projects like USCs Building
  A Sustainable Southern California and SCAGs
  Growth Visioning for A Sustainable Region
• Adopt a state growth management strategy that
  supports other visioning efforts in California
• Vision 2020 in San Diego
• Joint Venture Silicon Valley
• Bay Area Compact

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Solutions for Sustaining a Livable Region in a
Post Sprawl Era

• Community visioning and urban villages
• Redevelopment of Brownfields
• Coordinate local land use planning with growth
  projections to meet emerging life style choices
• Create mechanisms for consensus and dispute
  resolution on land use issues between communities
  and neighboring subregions.
• Promote fiscal incentives in California for
  encouraging job housing balance and better
  inter-jurisdictional cooperation on land use
  issues
• Develop a Regional compact that creates an
  effective mechanism for Mobility, Prosperity,
  Equity and Environmental Sustainability

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http//www.scag.ca.gov/livable