Dr' Savas ALPAY

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Real Progress Shared Progress
Dr. Savas ALPAY Director General
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Statistical Economic and Social Research and
Training Centre for Islamic Countries (SESRTCIC)

• A subsidiary organ of the Organization of the
  Islamic Conference (OIC)
• The OIC was established in 1969
• It has now 57 member countries
• It is the 2nd largest International Organization
  after the UN
• 27 members in Africa, 26 in Asia, 2 in Europe and
  2 in south America

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World Forum

• Fostering the development of evidence-based
  public choice and facts-based civic dialogue.
• Improving the effectiveness of indicator work and
  their use for policy making.
• Fostering a global conversation about what
  progress actually means.
• OECD World Forum is an important
• undertaking.

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Ensuring its Success

• A Carefully Designed Action Plan
• Encompassing All Stakeholders
• Desired Targets be strategically chosen and
  transperancy be embedded throughout the Forum
  road map
• Enthusiasm, excitement and support from
  developing countries essential

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Progress ?

• National or Global? How to separate and combine?
• Can one talk about Progress at the national level
  in the presence of global failures
• Climate change Global warming
• Ozone layer depletion
• Child labor explotation

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Progress ?

• Generations bequesting their descendants a
  more lively place to live, not new problems. What
  kind of progress are we talking about if future
  generations will have problems in even breathing
  clean air, and will have difficulty in access to
  clean drinking water!

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Progress ?

• Equity Dimension ? (Inter-generational and
  Intra-generational)
• Incorporation of Externalities? (Is it acceptable
  to see natural resources as commodities and price
  them accordingly?)

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Progress Shared ?

• As pointed out in the report of the UN Secretary
  General to the Millennium Assembly of the United
  Nations (2000), each state has a dual role in the
  global world, and this duality recognizes that
  each state not only bears responsibilities in
  relation to its own people but also collectively
  shares responsibility for the whole planet.
• Therefore, defining Real Progress is not an
  easy task as it may appear.

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Progress ?

• Given the uneasiness for the use of GDP as a
  measure of progress, new alternatives have been
  sought Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare
  (ISEW) .
• As briefly touched upon, measuring progress
  requires a comprehensive approach.
• Millennium Development Goals is an attempt in the
  right direction !

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Millennium Development Goals

• Requires a strong statistical database to
  identify whether the goals are being reached by
  the respective deadlines.
• The quest for reaching MDGs most notably showed
  that many developing countries need to start
  measuring a number of indicators there is a
  significant data gap !

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• Economists have come to feel
• What cant be measured, isnt real.
• The truth is always an amount
• Count numbers, only numbers count.
• (Chambers 1997)

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Better Statistics, Better Policy

• There is a strong need for Statistical Capacity
  Building
• Global imbalance in the capacity to build strong
  statistical infrastructure across the Developed
  and Developing Countries
• The potential for closing the gap in the near
  future ?

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Global Imbalances

• One of the most prevelant gaps between developed
  and developing world is the current stance of
  Science and Technology in these countries. In
  fact, it can even be reasonably argued that
  almost all gaps between developed and developing
  world can be narrowed down by developing,
  managing and properly applying appropriate
  knowledge.
• It is almost impossible for any country to
  achieve and sustain prosperity and a high quality
  of life without ensuring a strong scientific
  infrastructure and a well-educated population.
• An important aspect and determinant of progress
  Transition to knowledge-based economies and
  societies.

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World GDP, Population, and RD Expenditure and
Personnel
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Share of World Gross Expenditure on RD, (2000)
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Shares of World GERD, 2000. (Source UIS 2003
estimates)
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RD Personnel in 2000. (Source UIS Estimates 2003)
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Innovation Capacity

• Not only current stance of research and
  development (RD) activities results in huge
  differences in the current prosperity of nations,
  but also it has big impact on their future
  achievements. Innovation capacity and so the
  potential to develop new technologies immensely
  differs across nations, and it is not easy to
  determine the ways to make this process more
  equitable.

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Nanotechnology !
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NANOTECHNOLOGY INVESTMENTS

• Total Investment (world) in 2005 6 Billion USD
• European Union 4.8 Billion Euro for 7th
  Framework Projects
• South Africa 170 million USD for next 3 years
• Israel 230 million USD for next 5 years
• National Cancer Institute (USA) 143 million USD
  for next 5 years

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Nanotechnology Truly Outstanding Possibilities

• Enabling the blind to see, the lame to walk, and
  the deaf to hear
• Curing and preventing AIDS, cancer, diabetes and
  other afflictions
• Ending hunger
• Providing clean, renewable, affordable energy
• Extending the length and the quality of life
  through the repair-and eventually even the
  replacement-of failing organs
• Repairing existing environmental damage
• Nanocomputers smaller than a bacterium
• Data storage devices with memory densities
  sufficient to store the entire collection of the
  Library of Congress on a device the size of a
  sugar cube
• Materials up to 100 times stronger than steel, at
  a fraction of the weight

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Nanotechnology Economical Impact

• Production cost lt 10
• Selling Price 10.000
• Total income in 2004 3 Billion
• Total income in 2007 (expected) 11 Billion
• Largest local income item around Boston area
  (USA)

Nanotechnology Will Have Very Big Impact On
Economy

• Global market for nano products could reach 1
  trillion by 2015.
• Many countries including USA, Germany, Israel,
  Korea support nanotechnology research as a
  critical field due to huge economical impacts.
• In Israel, 45 nanotechnology companies have
  already started to selling nano-products.
• China started a program to educate 1 million
  scientist and engineers in nanotechnology related
  fields. China expects to get very big economical
  impact from their nanotechnology investments.

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Nanobiotechnology Treatment of Cancer
Scientist observed that 91 of mice are free of
tumor after this treatment.
Nano capsul lt 100nm
CpG ODN DNA
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• Under the circumstances, one can think of a
  new role for statisticians in monitoring the
  trends to identify new technological
  developments and new revolutionary waves (with
  supporting evidences from pertinent information)
  and channel this to decision-makers in a timely
  manner
• A non-conventional task for the statistician !

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• Thank you.