Search for Predictors of Exceptional Human Longevity: Using Computerized Genealogies and Internet Re

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Search for Predictors of Exceptional Human
LongevityUsing Computerized Genealogies and
Internet Resources for Human Longevity Studies

• Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D.
• Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D.
• Center on Aging
• NORC and University of Chicago
• Chicago, Illinois, USA

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Centenarians represent the fastest growing age
group in the industrialized countries

• Yet, factors predicting exceptional longevity and
  its time trends remain to be fully understood
• In this study we explored the new opportunities
  provided by the ongoing revolution in information
  technology, computer science and Internet
  expansion

Jeanne Calment (1875-1997)
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Revolution in Information TechnologyWhat does
it mean for longevity studies?

• Over 75 millions of computerized genealogical
  records are available online now!

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Computerized genealogies is a promising source of
information about potential predictors of
exceptional longevity life-course events,
early-life conditions and family history of
longevity
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Computerized Genealogies as a Resource for
Longevity Studies

• Pros provide important information about family
  and life-course events, which otherwise is
  difficult to collect (including information about
  lifespan of parents and other relatives)
• Cons Uncertain data quality
  Uncertain validity and generalizability
  

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For longevity studies the genealogies with
detailed birth dates and death dates for
long-lived individuals (centenarians) and their
relatives are of particular interest

• In this study 1,001 genealogy records for
  centenarians born in 1875-1899 were collected and
  used for further age validation

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Steps of Centenarian Age Verification

• Internal consistency checks of dates
• Verification of death dates linkage to the
  Social Security Administration Death Master File
  (DMF)
• Verification of birth dates linkage to early
  Federal censuses (1900, 1910, 1920, 1930)

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Internet Resources Used in Centenarian Age
Verification

• Social Security Administration Death Master File
  is publicly available at the Rootsweb website
  http//ssdi.rootsweb.com/cgi-bin/ssdi.cgi
• Head of household indexes and census page images
  for 1900, 1920 and 1910 federal censuses are
  provided by Genealogy.com
• Indexes of all persons enumerated by 1930 federal
  census and census page images are provided by
  Ancestry.com

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Results of Centenarian Age Verification
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Conclusions of the Age Verification Study

• Death dates of centenarians recorded in
  genealogies always require verification because
  of strong outliers (1.3, misprints)
• Birth dates of centenarians recorded in
  genealogies are sufficiently accurate - 92 are
  correct for the remaining 8 only one-year
  disagreements
• Quality of genealogical data is good enough if
  these data are pre-selected for high data quality

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Birth Order and Chances to Become a Centenarian
Cases - centenarians born between 1890 and
1899 Controls their siblings born in the same
time window Model where x birth order z
family size a, b, c, d parameters of
polynomial regression model
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Birth Order and Odds to Become a Centenarian
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Case-Control Study of Early-Life Conditions and
Exceptional Longevity
Cases - households where centenarians were
raised (from centenarian records linked to 1900
census) Controls 1 random sample of households
with children below age 10 enumerated by 1900
census (from Integrated Public Use Microdata
Sample, IPUMS http//www.ipums.umn.edu/usa/index.
html)
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Childhood Residence and Survival to Age 100Odds
for household to be in a centenarian group

• A New England and Middle Atlantic (reference
  group)
• B Mountain West and Pacific West
• C Southeast and Southwest
• D North Central

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Household Property Status During Childhood and
Survival to Age 100 Odds for household to be in
a centenarian group

• A Rented House (reference group)
• B Owned House
• C Rented Farm
• D Owned farm

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Paternal Immigration Status and Survival to Age
100 Odds for household to be in a centenarian
group

• A Father immigrated (reference group)
• B Father native-born

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Age of Father at Census Date and Survival to Age
100 Odds for household to be in a centenarian
group

• A Father
• B Father 50 years

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Mortality of Siblings and Survival to Age 100
Odds for household to be in a centenarian group

• A Less than 70 of siblings survived
  (reference group)
• B More than 70 of siblings survived (reference
  group)

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Gender-Specific Factors Affecting Survival to Age
100
Males - fathers immigrant status decreases
chances to become a centenarian Females father
older than 50 years in household and poor
survival of siblings (less than 70) decreases
chances to become a centenarian
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Further Extension of this Study Using Data from
the Social Security Death Master File (DMF)
(1) Study of cohort mortality at advanced ages
Estimation of hazard rates for each month of age
for extinct birth cohorts. (2) Month of birth and
mortality after age 80 Estimation of life
expectancy in real birth cohort according to
month of birth.
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Conclusions

• Computerized genealogies is a valuable resource
  for longevity studies, which could and should be
  used more extensively
• Early-life conditions are important predictors of
  survival to extreme ages as well as of old-age
  mortality
• Centenarians are more likely to have lower birth
  orders (women in particular)
• Late-life mortality deceleration appears to be
  not that strong - cohort mortality at advanced
  ages continues to grow up to age 105 years

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Acknowledgments

• This study was made possible thanks to
• generous support from the
• Society of Actuaries
• stimulating working environment at the Center
  on Aging, NORC/University of Chicago

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