Regional Climate Projections

1
Regional Climate Projections
Primary Source IPCC WG-I Chapter 11 - Regional
Climate Projections
2
Continental Temperature Projections
B1 - A1B - A2 ranges at 2100 (Based on models
ensemble averages)
Decadal temperature anomalies Baseline
1901-1950 Scenario A1B
Observed Black 20C Simulated Red envelope 21C
Simulated Orange envelope
3
Temperature Scaling A2 vs. A1B
(2080-2099 minus 1980-1999 annual, ensemble
average)
Global Average Ratio 1.17 1
4
Temperature Scaling B1 vs. A1B
(2080-2099 minus 1980-1999 annual, ensemble
average)
Global Average Ratio 0.69 1
5
AfricaTemperature changes
Observed Black 20C Sim Red 21C Sim Orange
Anomalies from 1901-1950 ave.
6
Africa Geographic Changes
2080-2099 Minus 1980-1999 (A1B)
10
-1
50
-50
21
models with ? gt 0
0
7
Africa Water Balance Changes
models with ? gt 0
2080-2099 Minus 1980-1999
8
Africa ? Precipitation via Statistical
Downscaling
2070-2099
Range -80,80 mm/month
2080-2099
9
EuropeTemperature changes
Observed Black 20C Sim Red 21C Sim Orange
Anomalies from 1901-1950 ave.
10
Europe Geographic Changes
2080-2099 Minus 1980-1999 (A1B)
10
-1
50
-50
21
models with ? gt 0
0
11
Europe Water Balance Changes
models with ? gt 0
2080-2099 Minus 1980-1999
12
Recall Regional Climate Models (RCMs)
0.5 (lat) x 0.5 (lon)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
History (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 1)
13
Europe RCM Changes, 2 GCMs
2080-2099 minus 1980-1999, A2 Scenario
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PRUDENCE
1. address and reduce resolution deficiencies
in projections 2. quantify confidence and
uncertainties in predictions of future
climate and its impacts 3. interpret results in
relation to European policies for adapting to
or mitigating climate change
15
Uncertainties in Regional Climate Change
Projections The PRUDENCE Strategy
Impacts Assessment
Storm Surge Agriculture Hydrology Ecosystems Healt
h Water Res. Tourism Droughts Floods
RCMs
GCMs
Hadley Rossby DMI UCM ETH ICTP MPI GKSS
Scenarios
HADAM3H ECHAM5 ARPEGE FVGCM
A2 B2
(F. Giorgi, 2008)
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Regional Daily Precipitation Changes
Ratio (2071-2100) (1961-1990) A2 Scenario
Wet-day frequency
Mean (average)
Intensity
90th Percentile
17
Asia Temperature Changes
Observed Black 20C Sim Red 21C Sim Orange
Anomalies from 1901-1950 ave.
18
Asia Geographic Changes
2080-2099 Minus 1980-1999 (A1B)
10
-1
50
-50
21
models with ? gt 0
0
19
Asia Water Balance Changes
models with ? gt 0
2080-2099 Minus 1980-1999
20
Change Summer Rainy Season Ending Date
Unit Pentad (5 days) later
15 GCMs, weighted by model skill
models with ? gt 0
21
North America Temperature Changes
Anomalies from 1901-1950 ave.
Observed Black 20C Sim Red 21C Sim Orange
22
North America Geographic Changes
2080-2099 Minus 1980-1999 (A1B)
10
-1
50
-50
21
models with ? gt 0
0
23
North America Water Balance Changes
10
-1
50
-50
21
models with ? gt 0
2080-2099 Minus 1980-1999
0
24
Changes in March Snow Depth
Canadian GCM ? ? Canadian RCM
Increase
2041-2070 Minus 1961-1990 (A2 Scenario)
25
South AmericaTemperature Changes
Observed Black 20C Sim Red 21C Sim Orange
Anomalies from 1901-1950 ave.
26
South America Geographic Changes
2080-2099 Minus 1980-1999 (A1B)
10
-1
50
-50
21
models with ? gt 0
0
27
South America Water Balance Changes
10
-1
50
-50
21
models with ? gt 0
2080-2099 Minus 1980-1999
0
28
AustraliaTemperature Changes
Observed Black 20C Sim Red 21C Sim Orange
Anomalies from 1901-1950 ave.
29
Australia Geographic Changes
2080-2099 Minus 1980-1999 (A1B)
10
-1
50
-50
21
models with ? gt 0
0
30
Australia Water Balance Changes
10
-1
50
-50
21
models with ? gt 0
2080-2099 Minus 1980-1999
0
31
Polar RegionsTemperature Changes
Observed Black 20C Sim Red 21C Sim Orange
Anomalies from 1901-1950 ave.
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Annual Cycle of Arctic Area Temperature Change
Sea Ice
25 - 75
GCM Range
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Arctic ?T
2080-2099 Minus 1980-1999 (A1B)
Temperature decrease in 3 of 21 GCMs
34
?P vs. ?T - North of 60N
2080-2099 minus 1980-1999 (A1B)
35
Antarctic ?T ?P
2080-2099 Minus 1980-1999 (A1B)
36
Oceanic Temperature Projections(Small Islands)
Decadal temperature anomalies Baseline
1901-1950 Scenario A1B
Observed Black 20C Simulated Red envelope 21C
Simulated Orange envelope
37
Caribbean Precipitation Changes
2080-2099 Minus 1980-1999 (A1B)
38
Indian Ocean Precipitation Changes
2080-2099 Minus 1980-1999 (A1B)
39
Pacific Precipitation Changes
2080-2099 Minus 1980-1999 (A1B)
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Summary
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END
Regional Climate Projections