Climate scenarios: exercise

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Climate scenarios exercise

• Bart van den Hurk, KNMI/IMAU

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Shifts in climate?
PRUDENCE model 1
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Shifts in climate?
PRUDENCE model 2
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Procedure

• Take a weather time series for present day
  climate of location X, and of a set of different
  locations Yi
• Transform time series X in order to match future
  scenario S, giving series XS
• Search the closest match between XS and Yi1,,n
  and put X on the location of Yiclosest
• What is closest match?
• annual cycle of monthly mean temperature?
• of heatwaves?
• R95pTOT?
• Combination of these?
• Define yourself! ?

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Utilities

• Transformation of time series for stations in
  Netherlands
• climexp.knmi.nl/Scenarios_monthly
• Selection of present day European time series
• climexp.knmi.nl ? daily station data
• eca.knmi.nl
• Define and calculate index
• Make comparison (e.g. in EXCEL)

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Report

• Definition and motivation of climate index
• Selection and motivation of
• scenario (G, G, W, W)
• time horizon (30yr period in 21st century)
• Description of the procedure
• Results which station in Europe with present day
  climate best matches the scenario of the Dutch
  station (including graphical demonstration)
• 1 or 2 pages is sufficient

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More information

• Bart van den Hurk
• hurkvd_at_knmi.nl
• www.knmi.nl/hurkvd
• www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios
• climexp.knmi.nl/Scenarios_monthly