Surveying the Digital Future: The Impact of the Internet

1
Surveying the Digital FutureThe Impact of
the Internet

• Year Four
• Ten Years (1994-2004)/ Ten Trends
• Jeffrey Cole, Ph.D.
• Director, The Center for the Digital Future
• at USC Annenberg
• Annenberg
• September 16, 2004
• Los Angeles, CA

2
Ten Years (1994-2004)/Ten Trends

• 1994 the beginning of the popular Internet (1969
  beginning of ARPANET)
• AOL offered Internet access as a additional
  feature of walled-garden service
• Netscape browser first appeared

3
Lost Research Opportunity

• A Longitudinal Study of Television, beginning in
  1948 could have found
• Where the time for television came from
• How it affected
• consumer behavior, connection to the civic
  process, desire to travel, career goals and much
  else

4
We are undertaking the study of the
Internet that should have been conducted on
television in the late 1940s
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Countries and Regions in Current Comparisons

• United States
• Singapore
• Italy
• Sweden
• Japan
• Taiwan
• Great Britain
• India
• Iran
• Australia
• Bolivia
• Hong Kong

• Mainland China
• Macao
• South Korea
• Germany
• Hungary
• Spain
• Chile
• Argentina
• Brazil
• Philipines
• Portugual
• Africa about to join

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Trend 1

• The Digital Divide is closing (but not yet closed)

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Internet Use Continues to Grow

• Household access over 60
• Hours per week at 12.5
• Growth in hours/years of experience
• Gap between new and experienced users narrowing
• Gender and income gap narrowing

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Hours online from any location (Year to Year)
Weihuaextra (W-1)
9
Number of hours online at any location by years
of experience
Weihuaextra (W-2)
10
How many hours per week do you use the Internet
for?
Q710 (B-1)
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Trend 2

• Broadband Changes Everything

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How do you connect to the Internet? (Year to Year)
Q360 (P-1)
13
Broadband Changes Everything

• Bigger gap between dial-up and broadband than
  between non-user and dial-up
• Dial-up is disruptive broadband integrative
• Broadband determines how often people log on, how
  long they stay on, what they do online and where
  they log on from
• Broadband predicts purchasing behavior and
  overall relationship to Internet

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Broadband vs. Dial-up

• Broadband users on 17.3 hours a week vs. 10.6 for
  dialup
• Dial-up users on 2-4 times a day, broadband
  16-30
• Broadband users do more of everything except
  using medical information and distance
  learning

15
The Future of Broadband

• Most users expect to be on broadband
• Broadband users leading effort in WiFi and
  networks
• Broadband users spend more on all electronics and
  also on on-line buying
• Early broadband users are innovators across many
  areas

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Trend 3

• Media use (especially television) has shown
  profound change

17
Offline Media Use Continues to Change

• Television dispacement changing
• Newspaper and magazine use drops for second year
• Book use declining slightly for first time
• Radio and home film watching remains stable
• Age makes enormous difference

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Average Hours per Week Spent Watching
TelevisionUsers vs. Non-Users
Users
Non-users
30
26.3
24.3
25
22.9
20.9
20.4
20.2
20
18.7
18.3
18.1
17.5
23.0
16.2
15.9
15.6
15.5
14.5
Number of Hours
14.1
15
13.0
12.9
11.8
15.5
10.2
10
5
0
Britain
Chile (Santiago)
Germany
Hungary
Japan
Korea
Macao
Singapore
Sweden
Taiwan
USA
HTV x Usenet 7 extra questions (10-22-03)
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During a typical week, about how many hours of
your leisure time, if any, do you spend with the
following activities OFFLINE? (Use)
Q690 (K-4)
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During a typical week, about how many hours of
your leisure time, if any, do you spend with the
following activities OFFLINE? (Age)
Q690 (K-5)
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Online Media making a Real Impact

• Online newspaper readership rising
• Magazine and radio use climbing
• Online books, telephone and television use still
  very low
• Online game use very high, but drops slightly in
  4th year
• For young, some online media use VERY high

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During a typical week, about how many minutes of
your leisure time, if any, do you spend with the
following activities online?(Year to Year)
Q700 (K-2)
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During a typical week, about how many minutes of
your leisure time, if any, do you spend with the
following activities online?(Age)
Q700 (K-4)
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Trend 4

• Internet is the most important source of
  information (for Internet users)

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Internet 1 Information Source

• First place people go to for information
• Broadband greatly accelerates this process
• Want access to Internet everywhere
• Growth is in information, not entertainment

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How important is the Internet as a source of
information? (Connection)
Q530a (P-1)
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Trend 5

• Reliability and credibility of media varies
  greatly based on source and in different countries

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Reliability and Credibility of Media

• Continuing to dropa healthy trend
• Credibility high in much of the world
• Trust in information varies widely depending on
  familiarity with the source

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How much of the information on the World Wide Web
overall do you think is reliable and accurate?
(Year to Year) (Users)
Q160 (M-1)
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Information on the Internet Is it Reliable and
Accurate? (Users Age 18 and above)
Stage 5 RELIA x Usenet (10-14-03)
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How much of the information on the World Wide Web
sites that you visit regularly do you think is
reliable and accurate?
Q170 (M-2)
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How reliable and accurate are News Pages posted
by Established Media
Q173-1 (M-1)
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How reliable and accurate areGovernment Websites
Q173-3 (M-1)
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How reliable and accurate are Information Pages
posted by Individuals
Q173-2 (M-1)
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Trend 6

• Online buying increasing substantially and piracy
  starting to decline

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In an average year, how many times do you
purchase products or services over the Internet?
(Adult purchasers)
Q780 (W-1)
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Downloading Free Content

• 41 of new users use P2P such as Kazaa
• 62 of experienced users use P2P
• 14 of Internet users have at least 100 free
  downloaded pieces of content

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Attitudes Toward Dowloading

• 94 of users believe taking a CD from a record
  store is wrong in all instances
• 36 believe that taking the same content from
  the Internet is wrong in all instances
• Little change from 2000 through early 2003

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Change in 2003-4

• For the first time there seems to be a
  significant crack in the unwillingness to pay for
  any digital content. The arguments that artists
  deserve fair pay or the costs of a record company
  never carried any weight and still do not. What
  seems to have changes is the available of fair
  services (i-tunes) and subpoenas.

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Differences between Music and Movies

• Among those under 30, significant belief that CDs
  are over-priced and that unfair to buy entire
  CD for one song.
• Same group feels DVDs (movies) are fairly priced
  and you get more than you pay for with extras.

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Trend 7

• Fears about privacy and security are still
  extremely high, but no longer are a barrier to
  buying

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Privacy and Security Fears

• Overall still at very high levels
• Shift from extremely concerned to somewhat
  concerned
• Users do not have to see their fears disappear,
  buying in spite of fear
• Internet users buying earlier, less lag time

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How concerned would you be about the security of
your credit card information when or if you ever
bought something online?(Experience)
Q830 (W-3)
44
How concerned would you be about the security of
your credit card information when or if you ever
bought something online? (Purchase Frequency)
Q830 (W-6)
45
Trend 8

• You do not become a Geek (or stay one) when
  you go online

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Online world is not filled with Geeks and Nerds

• You do not put your social life at risk when you
  go online
• Users get 1 hour less sleep per week and exercise
  a bit more
• Users spend same amount of time with family and
  more time with friends
• Users less alienated, lonely and more confident

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Trend 9

• Parents losing some of their enthusiasm for the
  Internet and more likely to equate it with
  television

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Parents losing some of their enthusiasm

• Believe their children are at great risk (but
  also that it is important to be online)
• More likely to feel children spend too much time
  online and to punish by denying Internet
• Less likely to believe that Internet will help
  their childrens grades in school

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Does anyone under 18 in your household get
punished by being denied access to?
Q1070 (W-3)
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How important is the Internet for your
schoolwork? Would you say it is
Q1135 (E-1)
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In your opinion, have the grades of those under
18 in your household improved or declined since
your household started using the Internet?
Q1080 (W-1)
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• Trend 10
• E-nuff Already

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Some Signs of a Slowdown

• Those who expect to go online dropping
• Some drop off the net (but most expect to return)
• Suggestions of e-mail and information overload
  E-nuff already. No clear e-mail etiquette

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How likely will you be to use the Internet within
the next year?
Q610 (MW-2)
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Do you think that you will ever go back to using
the Internet?
Q620 (M-1)
56
How quickly should one reply to a personal e-mail
message? (Experience)
Q263 (E-2)
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Overall, do you think that new communications
technologies such as the Internet, cell phones,
and pagers have made the world a better place, a
worse place, or neither better nor worse?
(Non-users)
Q180 (M-3)
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Overall, do you think that new communications
technologies such as the Internet, cell phones,
and pagers have made the world a better place, a
worse place, or neither better nor worse? (Users)
Q180 (M-2)
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Ten Internet Trends 1994-2004

• 1. The Digital Divide is closing (but not yet
  closed.
• 2. Broadband changes everything
• 3. Media use (especially television) has shown
  profound change
• 4. Internet is the most important source of
  information (for Internet users)
• 5. Reliability and credibility of media varies
  greatly based on source and in different countries

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Ten Internet Trends 1994-2004

• 6. Online buying increasing substantially and
  piracy starting to decline
• 7. Fears about privacy and security are still
  extremely high, but no longer are a barrier to
  buying
• 8. You do not become a Geek (or stay one) when
  you go online
• 9. Parents losing some of their enthusiasm for
  the Internet and more likely to equate it with
  television
• 10. E-nuff Already

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CONTACT INFORMATION

• Web http/digitalcenter.org
• E-mail cole_at_digitalcenter.org
• Phone [phone]