Malthusian Pessimism

1
Malthusian Pessimism

• In his 1798 theory, English economist and
  demographer Reverend Thomas Malthus predicted
  that, because population growth is exponential
  while agricultural productivity growth follows a
  linear trend, food demand would inevitably
  eventually outstrip supply capacitythereby
  causing mass starvation and/or the need for
  population control measures to equilibrate supply
  and demand.
• This fatalistic vision of population growth was
  taken up by Paul Ehrlich in his 1968 The
  Population Bomb as well as by Lester Brown.
• The argument was popularised in the 1970s by
  bestseller Limits to Growth (Meadows et al.)

2
The Counter-Evidence

• According to Lomborg, the Malthusian premise
  regarding the respective patterns of population
  and productivity growth does not hold.
• Empirical evidence shows that population growth
  is rarely exponential while agricultural
  production rarely grows linearly.
• According to the UN, food production is 23
  greater today than in 1961 (WRI 1996-97).

3
More Food than Ever

• In general, Lomborg argues, food per capita is
  higher than ever despite significant population
  growth.
• Calorie intake per person has increased in both
  the developed and the developing world, and the
  proportion of world population that is starving
  has fallen.
• And despite increasing demand fuelled by
  population growth, food prices have fallen
  dramatically. This implies that foodstuffs have
  become less scarce.

4
The Green Revolution

• The unprecedented advances in agricultural
  productivity are largely due to the advent of a
  number of new technologies, collectively known as
  the Green Revolution.
• High yield crop varieties, pioneered by Nobel
  Peace Prize winner Norman Borlaug, germinate
  earlier in the year, grow faster, and are more
  resistant to disease and drought.
• Irrigation and water control improve soil
  fertility and hence yields.
• Increased use of fertilizers and pesticides
  improves plant growth and prevents losses
  resulting from disease and insects.

5
The Green Revolution consequences

• 30 rise in maximum yields (accounting for
  20-50 of productivity growth)
• Additional income to farmers estimated at 4
  billion per annum
• In 1997, 18 of total agricultural land was
  irrigated, up from 10.5 in 1961
• Since 1950, the use of fertilizer has increased
  nine-fold.

6
Regional Distribution

• Improvements in the supply of food per capita
  have not been equitably distributed among
  nations.
• Sub-Saharan Africa has remained largely stagnant,
  with the rate of increase of the population
  outstripping growth between 1980-1995. Lomborg
  sees this as the result of poor policies.
• In contrast, the economic reforms instituted in
  China in the late 1970s have paved the way for
  increased agricultural production per capita and
  rapidly growing rural incomes.