The Second Industrial Revolution

1
The Second Industrial Revolution

• Article written by
• Ray Kurzweil

2
1st Industrial Revolution

• Started with John Kays invention of flying
  shuttle, 1733
• James Watts steam engine (1769) should be
  mentioned
• Characteristics Mechanization.
• Impact on industry shifted from cottage industry
  with craft to mass production with machine tools.

3
Products of 1st Industrial Revolution

• Steam engine
• Internal combustion engine
• Electricity, and its use -
• Train, automobile, airplane, ocean vessel
• Bulldozer, excavator
• Refrigerator, air-conditioner
• Skyscraper
• Weapon -

4
1st Industrial Revolution a two-edge sword?

• So many benefits and advantages it has brought to
  us.
• Any negativity?

5
Luddite Movement

• Founded in 1811.
• Central issue Workers job security threatened
  by mechanization and automation.
• Automation vs. job has been a pain issue in the
  process of industrial revolution, even up to now.

6
Automation vs. Jobs

• Technological progress eliminates some current
  jobs.
• Does new tech create more new jobs than those
  displaced?
• Do the new jobs pay more of less than the older
  ones?
• What about the workers who are displaced?

7
New Jobs Created with 1st Industrial Revolution

• In 1870, 31 of Americans, or 12 millions, had
  jobs
• In 1985, 48 of Americans, or 116 millions, had
  jobs.

8
Productivity Growth

• GNP per capita was 530 in 1870, and 3,500 in
  1970 (in 1958 dollars), which increase 6 times.
• Percent of American workforce that involved in
  food production
• In 1900, 34
• In 1990, only 3.

9
2nd Industrial Revolution

• It is now in progress.
• It is led and inspired by computers.
• It extends and multiplies our mental abilities,
  comparing to the 1st industrial revolution that
  extends and multiplies our physical capabilities.

10
Products of 2nd Industrial Revolution

• Computers (PCs, )
• Internet
• Cell phones
• CD, DVD, MP3, digital camera,
• GPS
• Gene engineering
• Embedded in most modern machines

11
Potential Dangers

• Humans are increasingly relying on machines whose
  intelligence may be as flawed as our own.
• Technology can be, and is already, a powerful
  ally of the totalitarians and terrorists. This
  danger is real, not potential.

12
Product Values Less Visible

• Computers use almost no natural resources.
• Value of a high tech product lies primarily in
  the knowledge (rather than materials) it
  contains.

13
Value of Knowledge and Technology

• The value of knowledge and technology reflects
  the cost of research and development (RD) of the
  products hardware and software, as well as the
  cost to maintain the ability of continuing to
  advance and further the RD.

14
Computing Speed Doubled Every 2 Years

• The power of computer technology (the ratio of
  speed over cost) has doubled every 18 to 24
  months.
• This is called the Moores Law.

15
A Unprecedented Challenge to Our Superiority of
Intelligence

• The 1st industrial revolution has helped human
  become superior in physical capability.
• The 2nd industrial revolution is helping machines
  achieve intelligence, which may become superior
  in mental capability on top of us.
• Is our intelligence unique and insuperable?

16
Copernicus Sun-Centered Theory

• It is the earth that circles the sun, rather than
  the sun circles our earth.
• Nicolaus Copernicus, Polish, 1473 1543,
  published his theory in book ltOn the Revolutions
  of Heavenly Spheresgt in 1543.

17
An Inexorable Advent

• Machines that are getting smarter are a sword of
  two edges. It is looming large no matter whether
  we like it or not.
• It cannot be stopped.
• We need to comprehend it, live with it, harness
  it constructively, and turn threats into
  challenges.

18
How Far Can 2nd Revolution Go?

• The machines of 1st revolution have over
  performed our muscles.
• Do you think the machines of 2nd revolution will
  over perform our brains?

19
A Sustained and Divergent Process

• Comparing to the 1st one, the 2nd industrial
  revolution is a continued process which will last
  long and whose impacts on human beings are
  divergent, boundless, and beyond estimation.

20
What do you think?

• While the first industrial revolution increased
  the demand for and the value of natural
  resources, the second industrial revolution is
  doing the opposite. (Bottom of page 8,
  paragraph 18)
• Do you agree? Why or why not?