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The Cook Islands limited experience applying impacts assessment methodologies

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Title: The Cook Islands limited experience applying impacts assessment methodologies


1
The Cook Islands limited experience applying
impacts assessment methodologies
  • Pasha Carruthers
  • Research Officer
  • PICCAP Program,
  • Environment Service
  • June 2001

2
Cook Islands Experience
  • Methods applied limited mainly to analogues,
    expert judgment,brainstorming
  • Not Tested
  • Why so limited?
  • Relevance to scale
  • Capacity and Technology
  • Poor understanding of other methods
  • Future impact assessment methods?

3
Cook Islands
  • Island micro-state
  • Latitude 9-22S
  • Longitude 157-166W
  • limited land size (240 sq km)
  • small population size (16,000?)
  • limited natural resources
  • external economic and physical impacts important
  • geographic diversity with both high and low
    islands

4
Socio-economic elements
  • Tourism
  • Pearls
  • Commercial and Subsistence Seafood
  • Coastal Flood Plain Agriculture

5
Activities
  • Signatory to UNFCCC 1992
  • needed to produce The Initial National
    Communication
  • PICCAP - Pacific Islands Climate Change
    Assistance Programme 1997
  • Implemented by SPREP (South Pacific Regional
    Environment Programme)
  • Assist countries to meet their obligations under
    the Convention
  • Provides technical assistance, training, capacity
    building
  • Funding of Co-ordinators and in-country
    activities
  • Country Team Approach
  • VA Course
  • Expected to integrate emphasis on model scenario
    generation - PACCLIM
  • Instead focus on
  • expanding the VA statement to enhance full
    representation of the country
  • qualitative baselines
  • public awareness

6
Cook Islands Exposure Sectors
  • As Identified by Country Team Matrices
  • Agriculture crop yields, harvest times, crop
    viablity, land loss
  • Coastal shoreline erosion and landloss
  • Health increased vector borne diseases, disaster
    risk, skin sepsis
  • Water resources saltwater intrusion, physical
    damage to infrastructure, drought
  • Coastal shoreline erosion and landloss

7
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8
Field Research
Challenges
  • Focal point established
  • Overview of the island
  • Meetings with government officials, community
    leaders
  • Informal discussions
  • School and Media Presentations
  • Qualitative observations including anecdotal
    evidence
  • Trust
  • Limited time
  • Presenting complex material
  • Getting relevant input
  • Recording feedback
  • Verifying anecdotes
  • Quantifying observations and uncertainties

9
Models and Decisions
  • IAM still more theory than practice
  • MAGICC, IMAGE others have benefits but time
    consuming to run meaningful(?) simulations
  • In truth demonstration tool produced at great
    expense has had limited applicability
  • not simple, too many errors, closed programs
  • useful application at the decision maker level
    requires a motivator and a greater level of
    completeness.
  • Better as a training tool, for identifying cross
    sectoral considerations

10
PACCLIM Outputs
11
Future Directions
  • Open Structure Models, focused data collection
  • Access to national and international technical
    expertise
  • Improve results obtained from simple methods,
    interview skills, checklists
  • Reporting Important
  • Risk Management and coping ability
  • Integrated management plans
  • Implementation through policy, National
    Implementation Strategy
  • Public Education Awareness
  • Continued lobbying for mitigation and adaptation
    assistance

12
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