Steve Colt

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Tourism and Alaskas FutureAn Economics
Perspective

• Steve Colt
• Institute of Social and Economic Research
• University of Alaska Anchorage
• steve_colt_at_uaa.alaska.edu
• Rev. 3 Feb 2003

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Our Fragile Economyper capita income is down
from 1990 to 2000
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Our Fragile Economy Real Income Growth Since
1990
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Our Fragile EconomyFederal Aid per Person
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Our Fragile EconomyFarmed salmon dominates
world markets
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Value of Alaska salmon is down
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AK Economy looks like US
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Alaska looks more like US over time
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84,000 Alaska Jobs Depend on Healthy Ecosystems
(circa 1998)
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Tourism Industry (nonresidents)
17,000 direct jobs 26,000 total jobs

• Marine environment is a major attraction
• Soft adventure is fastest growing segment,
  but
  
• Many residents dislike the associated impacts
  (e.g., helicopters)

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Overall Tourism Growth has Slowed
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What About Soft Adventure?guided rafting on
Chugach National Forest
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Guided and Charter-Supported Kayak Trips in PWS
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Recreation Industry (residents)

• Hard/impossible to measure - overlaps with
  tourism and sport fishing
  
• Important to many residents as a key benefit of
  living in Alaska (permanent tourists)

7,200 direct jobs 9,800 total jobs
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Nonresidents want Alaska Fish!
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• (circa 2000)
• Endeavor to position Alaska as a year round
  destination, i.e., winter tourism
  
• Increase total visitor expenditures statewide
  endeavor to maintain or increase per trip
  expenditures.
  
• Attract a diverse mixture of visitors who travel
  to and within Alaska by a variety of travel
  modes.
  
• Increase independent visitation to Alaska.
• Increase visitation to non-urban Alaska.
• Maintain or Increase the average length of
  stay in Alaska.
  
• Maintain or increase the rate of new and
  repeat visitation.
  

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The Challenge of Capturing Value.

• From Drive-Through visitors
• From Virtual visitors

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Disposition of Alaska Lands
Total 375 million acres
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Chugach National Forest Visitation
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Kenai NWR

• 21 million on-site expenditures
• PLUS, 28 million additional sport fishing
  expenditures depend on refuge habitat
  
• 49 million total? 950 jobs

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Kenai National Wildlife Refuge292,000 visits
(1997)
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Kenai National Wildlife Refuge21 million
visitor expenditure (1997)
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Kenai NWR
Visits
Expenditures
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Bristol Bay NWRs

• 21 million on-site expenditures
• PLUS, 28 million additional sport fishing
  expenditures depend on refuge habitat
  
• 49 million total? 950 jobs

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Bristol Bay Wildlife Refuges20,453 visits (1996)
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Bristol Bay Wildlife Refuges2.4 million
visitor expenditure (1997)
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Visits
Bristol Bay NWRs
Expenditures
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The Challenge of Capturing Value.

• Use value
• Consumptive
• Nonconsumptive
• Option value
• Existence Value

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Capturing the Value

• The Potential
• Average AK per person per trip?
• 1,258 in 2001
• Of which, how much on gifts/souvenirs?
• 119
• how much on Alaska Native arts/crafts?
• 92
• How much on clothing?
• 58

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Why do People Visit Alaska
Why do People Live in Alaska?
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(No Transcript)
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Reactions

• Overall Numbers?
• Numbers by Mode?

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Reactions

• Where do people derive value?

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Reactions

• Who are our visitors?