Climate Change and India: Presentation to India-EU Round Table

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Climate Change and India Presentation to
India-EU Round Table

• Prodipto Ghosh, Ph.D
• Distinguished Fellow
• The Energy Resources Institute
• 19 September 2007

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I. What is anthropogenic climate change?

• Suite of gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, etc,) emitted from
  various economic activities Fossil fuel use, wet
  paddy cultivation, cattle raising, fertilizer
  use, etc.
• Growing (but not mature) forests absorb
  (sequester) CO2, the major GHG
• Increasing concentrations of these gases in the
  atmosphere have same effect as a greenhouse,
  hence Greenhouse gases (GHGs). The resulting
  increase in temperature may impact many climate
  parameters

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Country CO2 (tons) per capita Energy (kgoe) per GDP (PPP in yr 2000)
India 1.2 5.5
China 3.2 4.4
France 6.2 5.9
Germany 9.8 6.2
Japan 9.6 6.4
UK 9.4 7.3
USA 19.9 5.2
Source The World Bank. World average of per
capita CO2 is 4.3 tons
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Projections of Future Changes in Climate
Across all scenarios, average warming is 0.2C
per decade Committed warming averages 0.1C per
decade for next two decades
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The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change,
1992

• The UNFCCC set forth certain principles for
  addressing climate change by a global effort, in
  particular, that of common but differentiated
  responsibilities of countries that development
  is the foremost concern of developing countries,
  etc.
• It also gave a soft target for industrialized
  countries (Annex I Parties) to return to 1990
  levels of GHG emissions by 2000
• All major countries, inc. US, EU, India, China,
  have ratified the Convention

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Kyoto Protocol, 1997

• Legally binding Protocol setting out
• Targets for GHG reductions by individual
  industrialized countries during first commitment
  period, 2008-2012, totaling 5.2 below their
  aggregate 1990 emissions actual percentages vary
  by Party
• 3 cooperative implementation mechanisms setting
  up a global market in carbon credits Clean
  Development Mechanism, applicable to developing
  countries, operational since 2000
• US, Australia have not ratified EU, China,
  India, Brazil are Parties (Total 161 Parties)

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II. Climate Change Impacts, Mitigation, and
Adaptation

• Difference between natural climate variability
  and anthropogenic climate change
• Summary of IPCC 4th Assessment Report on Impacts
• Monitored changes in Indias key climate
  parameters
• Indias energy policies and their GHG effect
• Indias response to natural variability
• Suggested way forward

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Likely Impacts of Climate Change
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Difference between natural climate variability
and anthropogenic climate change
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Variation of all-India surface air
temperatures Trends in annual mean, maximum and
minimum temperatures and diurnal temperature
range during the 20th century.
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All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (1871-2003)
Source IITM homogeneous monthly rainfall data
base
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Current knowledge about future impacts ASIA

• Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to
  increase flooding, rock avalanches from
  destabilized slopes, and affect water resources
  within the next two to three decades. This will
  be followed by decreased river flows as the
  glaciers recede.
• Freshwater availability in Central, South, East
  and Southeast Asia particularly in large river
  basins is projected to decrease due to climate
  change which, along with population growth and
  increasing demand arising from higher standards
  of living, could adversely affect more than a
  billion people by the 2050s.
• Coastal areas, especially heavily-populated
  mega-delta regions in South, East and Southeast
  Asia, will be at greatest risk due to increased
  flooding from the sea and in some mega-deltas
  flooding from the rivers.

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Current knowledge about future impacts ASIA

• Climate change is projected to impinge on
  sustainable development of most developing
  countries of Asia as it compounds the pressures
  on natural resources and the environment
  associated with rapid urbanisation,
  industrialisation, and economic development.
• It is projected that crop yields could increase
  up to 20 in East and Southeast Asia while it
  could decrease up to 30 in Central and South
  Asia by the mid-21st century. Taken together and
  considering the influence of rapid population
  growth and urbanization, the risk of hunger is
  projected to remain very high in several
  developing countries.
• Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal
  disease primarily associated with floods and
  droughts are expected to rise in East, South and
  Southeast Asia due to projected changes in
  hydrological cycle associated with global
  warming. Increases in coastal water temperature
  would exacerbate the abundance and/or toxicity of
  cholera in South Asia.

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Current knowledge about responding to climate
change

• Some adaptation is occurring now, to observed and
  projected future climate change, but on a very
  limited basis.
• Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts
  resulting from warming which is already
  unavoidable due to past emissions.
• A wide array of adaptation options is available,
  but more extensive adaptation than is currently
  occurring is required to reduce vulnerability to
  future climate change. There are barriers, limits
  and costs, but these are not fully understood.
• Vulnerability to climate change can be
  exacerbated by the presence of other stresses,
  esp. poverty
• Future vulnerability depends not only on climate
  change but also on development pathway.

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Current knowledge about responding to climate
change

• Impacts of climate change will vary regionally
  but, they are very likely to impose net annual
  costs which will increase over time as global
  temperatures increase
• While there has been significant improvement in
  scientific understanding of climate change in the
  past 20 years, there remains considerable
  uncertainty about the nature, timing, spatial
  distribution, and severity of particular impacts.
  In particular, none of the global climate models
  can be validated with respect to changes in
  rainfall over the Indian land-mass
• Systematic observation and research needs

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III. Myths about India and Climate Change

• Myth 1 India is an energy profligate
• Myth 2 India does not take climate impacts
  seriously
• Myth 3 Indias development path is unsustainable
• Myth 4 Abatement of GHG emissions is low-cost

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Response to Myth 1 Indias current energy
policies and their outcomes (partial list)

• Improving energy efficiency
• Promoting hydro and renewable energy
• Power sector reforms
• Promotion of clean coal technologies
• Energy and infrastructure development
• Coal washing
• Cleaner and lesser carbon intensive fuel for
  transport
• Environmental quality management (EIA appraisal
  for significant development projects)

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Indias Energy Policies Scenarios simulated by
MARKAL (2001-2036)

• Baseline Base year 2001
• GDP growth rate 8
• Official demographic projections
• IPCC emissions factors
• 8 social discount rate
• Scenarios
• S1 Cleaner fuels for power generation
• S2 Electricity for all by 2012
• decentralized renewable options
• efficient cook stoves
• S3 20 increase in share of public road
  transport
• Greater use of CNG in buses, taxis, 3-W
  vehicles
• S4 S1S2S3
• S5 Baseline with average annual GDP growth rate
  6.7

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Source TERI, 2006
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Indias actual carbon intensity performance
Source MoEF, 2007
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Decreasing Energy Intensity Behind Indias
Sustainable Development
Source Plg. Comm. 2006
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Indian industry and energy efficiency

• Major energy using sectors steel cement,
  aluminum, etc. have become more energy efficient
  over the past 20 years
• The following graphs depict changes in average
  energy intensities incremental changes are much
  sharper.
• The newer plants are among the most energy
  efficient globally

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Source BEE, 2007
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Source BEE, 2007
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Source BEE, 2007
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Response to Myth 2 Indias actions on climate
variability

• The most effective response strategy for
  anthropogenic climate change is poverty
  alleviation
• Specific areas of concern include
• - Agriculture
• - Water resources
• - Health and sanitation
• - Coastal Zones
• - Forests
• - Extreme weather events

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7 Major Components of Adaptation

• Crop improvement research (22)
• Drought proofing flood control (19)
• Health improvement and prevention of disease (19)
  
• Risk financing (6)
• Disaster management (6)
• Forest conservation (12)
• Poverty alleviation and livelihood preservation
  (30)
• (Figures in brackets indicate number of Schemes
  identified under each category)

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Percentage of Adaptation Expenditure to Total
Fiscal Expenditure and GDP
Source MoEF, 2007
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Relative expenditures on major Adaptation
schemes by thematic area
Source MoEF, 2007
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IV. Response to Myth 3 Sustainability of
Production and Consumption Patterns

• Relevance
• Select Indicators
• - Energy inputs per unit of output energy
  delivered through food
• - Waste generation and recycling
• - Energy emissions per unit of passenger
  transportation movement

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Energy inputs per unit of output energy delivered
through food

• The energy inputs and resultant emissions in the
  cycle of growing the food, transporting,
  processing, packaging and preserving it till it
  reaches the table vary significantly between
  India, China, and developed countries. This
  reflects not poverty, but lifestyle choices.

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Source TERI analysis (various data sources)
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Waste generation and recycling

• Consumption patterns also have a direct impact on
  the wastes that a society generates. In developed
  societies not only is there higher waste
  generation but also relatively lower recycling.
  Can we move to a lifestyle that entails lower
  packaging and higher recycling and hence lower
  usage of plastics, glass and paper? What may it
  imply for GHG emissions?

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Municipal solid waste
Average rate of recycling () (excl. re-use)
GHG emissions from waste (gm/000GDPppp)
Source TERI Analysis, based on National
Communications of different countries
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Energy emissions per unit of transportation
movement

• Sustainable mobility shift from personalized
  modes of transportation to public modes of
  transportation, greater reliance on clean fuels
  and cleaner technologies, a shift towards IT
  based societies have major implications for GHG
  emissions.

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Estimated CO2 emissions from passenger transport
(gm/passenger-km)
Source TERI Analysis, various data sources
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Response to Myth 4 MARKAL model estimates of
costs of GHG abatement Cumulative incremental
investment requirements
The total incremental cost for reduction of GHG
in India by 9.7 from baseline in 2036 is 2.53
Trillion!
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Cumulative incremental investment requirements
and GDP of different countries in 2004
GDP at 2000 prices
Cumulative incremental investment
requirements Comparison with 2004 GDP levels
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Change in discounted energy system cost (2001-36)
Reduction of GHG emissions by 9.7 from baseline
by 2036 would involve economic loss of 180
Billion
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Indias Broad Approach to International
negotiations of a global climate change regime

• India is not a significant contributor to climate
  change in the past, at present, or likely to be
  in the near future, as revealed by actual
  empirical data, and modeling results on future
  carbon intensities
• However, India is among the worst sufferers of
  climate change caused by industrialized
  countries!
• India has taken a number of policies and measures
  to address both mitigation and adaptation and is
  preparing a national action plan on climate change

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Indias broad approach

• India can only consider international commitments
  to control GHG emissions on the basis of global
  convergence to equal per capita rights, otherwise
  our poverty alleviation efforts will be severely
  affected, and the world will be permanently
  divided into the rich man in his castle, the
  poor man at his gate!
• Technology and financial transfers for addressing
  climate change, both GHG abatement and adaptation
  to impacts must be ensured under any future
  international climate change regime.

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Thank You for Your Attention!