Breaking the Habit Research Streams

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Breaking the HabitResearch Streams

• Randy Salzman
• TDM Research and Consulting

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Why?Congestion Externality

• In US, 226 million vehicles
• Over 3.7 billion hours of travel delay and 2.3
  billion gallons of wasted fuel annually in
  congestion
• Cost 63 billion in 2003
• Congestion delayed travelers 79 million more
  hours and wasted 69 million more gallons of fuel
  in 2003 than in 2002
• Individual drivers spent three times as much time
  stuck in traffic in 2003 an average 47 hours
  than 1983.
• Texas Transportation Institute, 2005

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Why? Global Warming Externality

• Transportation causes 33 percent of US CO2
  emissions 1,959 million metric tons the
  largest single amount in economy while
  producing 11 percent GDP
• C02 emissions to GDP fell 23 percent since 1990
  due to drops in industrial and commercial
  emissions amid overall economic gains
• U.S. vehicle miles traveled are increasing over
  two percent annually and as much as 6.2 percent,
  erasing those industrial/commercial C02 gains
• Americans drive 2.9 trillion miles/year in 411
  billion car trips, 87 percent alone
• US-DOT, US-EIA, US-DOC

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Why? Foreign Policy Externality

• Americans drive 2.9 trillion miles/year in 411
  billion car trips, 87 percent alone
• 70 percent of 19 million oil barrels/day into
  fuel tanks. 163 billion gas/diesel gallons
  annually in cars
• 63 percent of oil imported (12.2 million barrels
  daily)
• 251 billion annually to import oil. Largest
  amount in US trade deficit
• US-DOT, US-EIA, US-DOC

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Why? Foreign Policy Externality

• US 2.7 of worlds oil reserves, 5 of
  population, uses 26 of worlds oil (USGS)
• Much oil from countries who dont like America
• 9 of 11 OPEC nations are Islamic. Two major
  exporters, Iran and Venezuela, angry at US,
  w/Nigeria in civil war
• 2 in 3 barrels of proven oil in Persian Gulf
  states

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Why? Foreign Policy Externality

• Past 30 years, US engaged in petrol-imperialism
• US puts up a democratic façade, emphasizes
  freedom of the seas (or pipeline routes) and
  seeks to secure, protect, drill and ship oil
• US military become global oil protection force
• Kevin Phillips, American Theocracy
• Three in four worldwide call US in Iraq blood
  for oil in 2002 survey of 33,000
• Pew Charitable Trust, 2003

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Why?We Have No Choice

• Theres really no doubt were going to have to
  change our habits. Were going to have to design
  our cities differently. Were going to need
  greater population densities and more public
  transportation.
• We could be in deep trouble as a social
  system. How do we achieve fairness when the
  gridlock between rich and poor already stops us
  from having an energy policy.

We could see democracy entering its death
throes. Charles Maxwell, the energy guru often
called the dean of energy analysts
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Driving Reasoning Isnt Rational
Yet TDM arguments are rational and long-term With
facts and figures, we emphasize

• Global Warming
• Pollution
• Congestion
• Health Issues

• Foreign Policy Concerns
• Safety
• Space and Land Use
• Parking

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Rationality doesnt work

• We often forget
• Few want less in life
• We cant quite change EVEN our lifestyles
• How, then, can we address the world?

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My Rides

• Brutus and Blanche
• Rides are more than transportation
• Smug Front
• CAFÉ rebound effect

Transport is not simply about physical
movements, it is about money, time, effort,
comfort, safety, reliability, habit, addiction
and culture. Transport in
Transition, by Stephen Peake
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My Favorite Ride

• For 30 years, Ive been promoting bicycle
  commuting
• with logical, rational arguments
• and for 30 years Ive been failing

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Why Failing?

• Some of the responses
• My children need to get safely to school
• Its not my job to tell our employees how to get
  to work
• Where will I put my make-up on?
• Arent you scared?

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Rationality?

• Rational answers to those and other responses are
  ineffectual
• Rational, fact-filled arguments bore people
• Cause cognitive dissonance

In the U.S. federal system, rational analysis is
a factor in only 12 percent of governmental
votes The World of the Policy Analyst, 1992
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Best Description of Democratic Political
Leadership

• See which way the parade is going and get in
  front
• Media directs the paradeBUT
• 1. Editors/publishers/bloggers/broadcasters are
  drivers
• 2. Auto lobby spends advertising dollars
• 3. Readers/listeners want simple, digestible
  stories
• 4. Our arguments are long, upsetting, complex
• 5. And dont come with ad dollars

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Govt/media is MORE rational

• The economic concept of the rational consumer
  does not exist
• Advertisers seek the child market because, once
  hooked, he or she rarely changes brands
• He or she sees more advertising AFTER buying
• He or she does not want to hear bad news
• He or she has been taught since birth that
  buying equals happiness
• He or she has learned to expect instant
  gratification
• He or she likes simplicity, not complexity

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Hmmm

• Were talking about individual behavioral change
• on a massive scale
• in the short term
• almost without governmental support
• in cultures which prize individuality
• with little in the way of substitutions
• which generally require decades to build

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Still, we better try

• We could be in deep trouble as a social
  system
• We could see democracy entering its death
  throes.
• Most analysts say the West has about 10 years to
  alter our oil consumption significantly before
  Peak Oil and Global Warming overwhelm our
  economies
• And perhaps destroy our planet

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So how to change behavior

• Push methods (Sticks) Command and Control
• 1. Higher gasoline taxes
• 2. Londons congestion charge
• 3. Higher parking charges
• 4. Higher vehicle registration fees
• 5. Key the paint jobs on all Hummers

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So how to change behavior

• Pull methods (Carrots)
• 1. Education like Travel Awareness programs
• 2. Enticements to try alternatives
• 3. Strong leadership
• 4. Subsidies
• 5. Cash-out parking

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TDM proponents have beenExpecting a Miracle

• Saul at Damascus is a miracle because
  instantaneous behavioral change DOES NOT happen
• Individuals do not hear one argument, one time
  and change their minds, much less their behavior
• Behavioral change, instead, is a long,
  complicated, variable process unique to each
  individual

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Self-Determination Theory

• To be autonomously motivated involves feeling a
  sense of choice and volition as a person fully
  endorses his or her own actions.
• Richard Ryan, Psychological Needs and the
  Facilitation of Integrative Processes,1995
• Autonomous choice requires a decision that is
  accompanied by the experience of endorsement and
  willingness.
• Moller, Ryan Deci, Self-Determination Theory
  and Public Policy, 2006

Autonomous choosers often become
additional mavens, and salesmen to move
society TO/FROM the necessary sustainable
tipping point
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Intrinsic vs Extrinsic MotivationAutonomy vs
Control

• Doing because its interesting, fun, satisfying,
  enjoyable
• No coercion
• Satisfies our basic psychological needs
• Helps personal growth and affirmation
• Pull methods

• Doing due to pressure, cost, to forestall a
  punishment, achieve an outer-directed goal
• To illustrate to others
• Drives wealth, fame and image-consciousness
• Push methods

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Intrinsic Extrinsic MotivationAutonomy vs
Control

• Autonomy-supportive policies provide meaningful
  information, not intended to frighten or pressure
• Autonomy-supportive communications illustrate
  what is right for them the audience
• Autonomous actions are internalized, maintained
  over time
• And, again, the thems can become the uss

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Intrinsic Extrinsic MotivationAutonomy vs
Control

• Endangered Species Shoot, shovel and shut-up
• London Booming market in fake license plates
• Washington, D.C. Ebay market in free transit
  passes
• Speed bumps less effective than rumple strips

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Intrinsic Extrinsic MotivationAutonomy vs
Control

• One third of car drivers indicated desire to
  reduce driving, but only 7 percent thought likely
• Stradling, Meadows Beatty, Helping drivers out
  of their cars. 2000
• Gain mastery, self esteem, autonomy, protection
  and prestige through car
• Ellaway, Macintyre, Hiscock, Kearns, In the
  driving seat. 2003
• After repeated drive choice, driving more
  frequent EVEN if easy walk distance
• Garling, Fujii and Boe, Empirical tests of
  determinants of script-based driving choice. 2001

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Intrinsic Extrinsic MotivationAutonomy vs
Control

• Owning car gives me freedom
• Or
• Owning car is a significant burden

Agree with first Two-thirds
Agree with both One-third
Only two people statistically insignificant
agree solely with significant burden Handy,
Weston, Mokhtarian, Driving by choice or
necessity, 2005
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Intrinsic Extrinsic MotivationAutonomy vs
Control

• Individual behavior change does occur with
  learning over time
• Richards, Turning intelligence into effective
  action, 2004
• Short-term car-use behavioral change can occur
  EVEN if attitudinal change doesnt
• Garvill, Marell, Nordlund, Effects of increased
  awareness on choice of travel mode, 2003
• Some short-term auto usage change holds over if
  change in environment
• Fujii, Garling, Kitamura, Changes in Drivers
  Perceptions and Use of Public Transport During
  Freeway Closure, 2001.

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Intrinsic Extrinsic MotivationAutonomy vs
Control

• Positive news

Ozone Alerts reduce individual driving Down 3.6
mile/day
Reduce it significantly if employer
program Down 11.6 mile/day
In the worlds worst driving city Atlanta,
Georgia, USA Henry Gordon, Driving less for
better air, 2003
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Behavioral Change Model

• Upstream before become drivers works best but
  car as freedom in teen years counters
• Works better along with contextual/environmental
  change like moving, like gas/park price hike
• Providing options/incentives but not too many
  allows autonomy with subtle extrinsic motivation
• Since 1990, Cornell University in NY
• has pushed and pulled and sang the praises of TDM
• And today has 52 percent of employees arriving
  on alternative transport
• Student parking permits halved in six years and
  26 percent now have purchased transit passes

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Behavioral Change ModelSeven Stages of Change

• 1. Awareness of Problem
• Issues of automobile externalities, like
  congestion, global warming, foreign policy
• 2. Accepting Responsibility (We have met the
  enemy and he is us!)
• Understanding the personal, corporate,
  organizational relevance
• 3. Perception of Options
• Recognize that there are other methods of
  transport
• 4. Evaluation of Options
• Consider if one or more option is viable
• 5. Making a Choice
• Truly desire to modify own behavior
• 6. Experimental Behavior
• Getting out and trying that choice
• 7. Habitual Behavior
• Adopting for long-term

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Seven Stages of ChangeTo affect consumer in
stages

• 1. Awareness of Problem
• 2. Accepting Responsibility
• Whenever individual moves from one stage to next
• Provide positive feedback
• Thanks for becoming part of the solution

• Public Info/Media Coverage
• Seek Small Groups
• Reiterate Externalities
• Reiterate Specific Facts
• Tell Positive Stories
• Accept Defensiveness
• Distance from Arguments

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Seven Stages of ChangeTo affect consumer in
stages

• 3. Evaluation of Options
• 4. Making a Choice
• Whenever individual moves from one stage to next
• Provide positive feedback
• Good thinking. For all options, you know theres
  a guaranteed ride home, right?

• Target Leaners
• Personalized Marketing
• Focus on Journey Type
• Bypass Defensiveness
• Address Disincentives to Change
• Provide Incentives to Try
• Emphasize Doing whats right
• Keep Press Distant

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Seven Stages of ChangeTo affect consumer in
stages

• 5. Making a Choice
• 6. Experimental Behavior
• 7. Habitual Behavior
• Whenever individual moves from one stage to next
• Provide positive feedback
• I cant wait to see you in six months.
  Everybodys healthier and happier.

• Focus on Type of Journey
• Solve Disincentives
• Illustrate Positive Personal Effects
• Encourage Defensiveness
• Ask for Feedback
• Use as Example for Media, Internal Coverage
• Ask for Support and Promotion

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Understand the IndividualAll of Us Have

• Opinions and Attitudes -- most of which support
  our behavior, including auto behavior
• Avoid Cognitive Dissonance we shut down when
  faced with fact that our actions dont match who
  we claim to be
• Latitudes of Acceptance areas around given
  attitudes in which well accept counter opinions.
  Stay inside LAT
• And gradually move itrather than the attitude
• Me I wont accept that my van, Brutus, is evil
  but I will accept that how I use him MIGHT be
• My Beloved She wont accept that she should
  sweat at work but she will accept that she MIGHT
  take a shower at work

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Americans Must Change BehaviorRemember

• We could be in deep trouble as a social system
• We could see democracy entering its death
  throes.
• And Remember
• Most analysts say the West has about 10 years to
  alter our oil consumption significantly before
  Peak Oil and Global Warming overwhelm our
  economies
• And perhaps destroy our planet

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TDM ProtoType Plan

• Employer Based
• 1. Save on Parking
• 2. Save on Health Care
• Utilizes Social Marketing (Guilt)
• Utilizes Individualized Marketing
• Underscored by extensive communication,
  marketing, behavioral change and consumer
  behavior data
• Utilizes Carrots, sticks AND tambourines

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TDM ProtoType PlanThink Globally, Act Locally

• Discuss auto externality issues w/staff at
  monthly department/division meetings for 1 year.
  Socially market externalities in short,
  five-to-10 minute segments (one externality each
  meeting) led by know-nothing upper management
• 1. Illustrates that management behind right
  thing. Upper management follows short basic
  script
• 2. Allows framing of discussion. Max 10
  slides allows advocate to direct information flow
• 3. Eliminates off-message questions. Keeps
  meeting short for departments benefit
• 4. Allows monthly reiteration of same, simple
  right thing message in context. The company
  cares. Hope you do too
• 5. Reinforces changers. Helps assure them
  they made right decision

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Social ProtoType Health Externality Discussion
Maximum 10 slides

• The greatest potential for organizational health
  benefits accrue if sedentary adults become
  moderately active on regular basis
• Like walk to transit stop daily
• Or active daily transportation
• Business Every spent on fitness returns 3.15
  in health benefits alone
• Doctors prescribe walks
• Some employers pay bonus for fitness

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TDM ProtoType PlanThink Globally, Act Locally

• Monthly ask employees following externality
  discussion if want more info or consider another
  transportation mode. Sign each up for dialogue
  marketing
• 1. Allows work with only employees beyond Stage
  1 and, therefore, more likely to address habit
  while building all toward Stage 2
• 2. Allows bypass/isolation of advocates for
  auto lobby
• 3. Builds towards individual and corporate
  tipping point
• 4. Very similar to WAs TravelSmart

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TDM ProtoType PlanThink Globally, Act Locally

• Have knowledgeable advocate individually market
  that employee with data and rewards for
  attempting other commute styles. Likely require
  several individual meetings.
• Again, very similar to Western Australias
  successful TravelSmart program.
• 1. About 50 percent of called households refuse
  to hear more
• 2. Still so effective that 135,000 families
  targeted this year
• 3. Cost 50 per household
• With social marketing, moves the mass as well as
  the low hanging fruit.

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TDM-ProtoTypeIndividualized Marketing

• Discover commute needs
• Show options Hike, bike, car-van pool, transit
• Bus schedule from nearest stop Perhaps free
  pass
• Bike shop discounts
• Nearby employees working similar hours
• Emphasize guaranteed ride home program
• Emphasize flex car possibilities
• Solve other disincentives

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TDM ProtoType Plan Individualized Marketing

• In each company department, train first commute
  changers to become individualized marketers
• 1. As known entities, they become living proof
• 2. And can be compensated for cash-out parking
• Constantly connect driving externalities to media
  articles
• Illustrates personal rewards of those changers
• 1. Women lose weight
• 2. Men save money

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TDM Prototype ProgramEffects

• Combines social individualized marketing
• Utilizes effective communications, marketing,
  consumer behavior, behavioral change and
  leadership research data
• Will generate hard fact, not stated preference,
  data (Guaranteed ride home sign up park charge
  removal from pay check)
• Can then devise program aimed beyond individual
  work place
• Can get positive press as sustainable
  corporation and niche marketing
• Convinces autonomous decision makers to aid in
  the promotion of TDM
• Aids carry-over into other aspects of
  sustainability
• Reinforces right decision before, during, after
  the fact

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TDM Research Streams

• Which externality discussion causes what
  demo/psychographic of consumer to move along
  ladder of behavioral change
• Which incentive causes what consumer to
  experiment with new behavior
• What amount of reinforcement is necessary to seal
  habitual change
• How does alternative transportation effect public
  health
• What effect does personal leadership have on
  consumer behavior
• What are the effects of the number and types of
  communications
• Toward a better model for transportation
  improvements (4-step and Transim)

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In the End,We Must Produce This Research

• We could be in deep trouble as a social
  system
• We could see democracy entering its death
  throes.
• Again
• Most analysts say the West has about 10 years to
  alter our oil consumption significantly before
  Peak Oil and Global Warming overwhelm our
  economies
• And perhaps destroy our planet

46
Stop Pleading, DemandingResearch Educational
Potential

• Breaking
• The
• Habit
• Randy Salzman
• TDM Research Consulting
• salz_at_rocketmail.com
• US 434-987-2754
• 434-979-3982