I P A T implies Cause and Effect

1
INTRODUCTION

• I P A T implies Cause and Effect
• Neo vs Non-Malthusian theory
• Neo is population-centered (cause)
• Non sees population as an intermediate
• DV varies as IV changes
• Intermediate variables affect/are affected by
• Example of Population as a IV

2
SO WHAT

• Future State of the World according to
• Optimist
• Pessimist
• What if theyre wrong

3
NUMBERS

• Abstract vs Real
• How many is a billion if the class is 102

4
THE NUMBERS PAST

• AGE DATE NUMBER (M) 2X TIME/ADD B
• Stone 10,000 BCE .06 8000
• Bronze 2,000 BCE .12 2000
• Iron 0 .25 1650
• Middle 1650 .50 200
• Renaissance 1850 1.0 80
• Agriculture 1930 2.0 30
• Industry 1960 3.0 15
• Medicine 1975 4.0 12
• Max. Growth 1987 5.0 12
• Begin Slow 1999 6.0 ?

5
THE NUMBERS PRESENT

• WWW.POPIN.ORG/6BILLION/F1.HTM

6
THE NUMBERS FUTUREOptimist1999 6.0 15 2014 7.0
30 2044 8.0 80 2124 9.0 200 Pessimist1999 6.0
12 2011 7.0 15 2026 8.0 30 2056 9.0 80 2135 1
0.0 200 The end of J and the beginning of S.
The shape of S depends upon how soon ZPG. ZPG
Birth death and Fertility Replacement
7
PROJECTIONS BASED UPON ZPG

• If 1970s 5 Billion
• If 1980s 7 Billion
• If 2000s 9 Billion
• If 2020s 11 Billion
• If 2040s 15 Billion

8
UN PROJECTIONS, PAST VS PRESENT

• Past
• Highs were Exponential
• Medium was 14 then 12 Billion
• Low was 4 to 8 Billion
• Present
• High is no longer exponential
• Medium is 9 to 11 Billion
• Low is still 4 Billion just Later

9
UN BEST ESTIMATES

• 2000 6.055B 2.5X 1950
• 2013 7B
• 2028 8B
• 2050 8.909B 1.5X 2000
• 2054 9B
• 2100 10B
• 1900 Europe 3X Africa
• 2050 Africa 3X Europe

10
WHERE THE NUMBERS COME FROM

• Cohort Components
• Population Pyramids www.popin.org/6billion/f3.htm
• Figure 9-11
• Stable, Shrinking, Growing
• Aberrant

11
DEMOGRAPHIC MOMENTUM

• Gross Global Annual Recruitment Rate (GGARR) 1.7
• Doubling Times (170 y, 235y, 324y, 417y)
• 6,000,000,000 X 1.7 102,000,000/y /m/d/h/m
• GGARR B-D 144,505/d - 384,615/d
• GGARR BR- DR 27/1000 - 10/1000 17/1000
• Over Time

12
UN SCENARIOS

• Slow 1.55-1.59
• Medium 2.05-2.09 Replacement
• Fast 2.55-2.59
• www.popin.org/6billion/f2.htm
• www.popin.org/longrange/lrfir1.htm

13
GREYING OF THE POPULATION

• Life Expectancy Now 2050 2150
• Males 71 74 83
• Females 74 79 88
• Less than 1 over 80 now, over 10 in 2150
• www.popin.org/6billion/f4.htm
• Figure 9-14

14
WHERE IS THE GROWTH

• Theory of Demographic Transition
• Stage 1 High Birth rate and commensurate High
  Death Rate
• Stage 2 Death Rate Falls but Birth Rate Stays
  High (Mortality Transition)
• Stage 3 Birth Rate Falls (Fertility Transition)
• Stage 4 Low Birth Rate and Commensurate Low Death
  Rate
• Stage 5 Even Lower Birth Rate so NPG

15
WHERE IS THE GROWTH 2

• Many Nations in All Four Stages
• Slow vs Fast, MDC vs LDC, First vs Third, N vs S
• Figure 9-9
• Figure 9-3

16
WHY? THE THREE LAWS OF GROWTH

• 1. Population growth is accompanied by
  disproportionately more resource use
• 2. As distance from core increases, density
  decreases but rate of growth increases
• 3. Rapid extra-urbanization and inner-urban decay
  are mirror images

17
SlowREGION POP GARR STABLE
() West Europe 159 0.02 North
America 278 0.07 Former USSR 291 0.90 377 32
Australia 17 0.80
WHERE IS THE GROWTH 3
18
WHERE IS THE GROWTH 4

• Fast Pop Rate Stable
• China 1120 1.4 1571 45 S.E.Asia 455 2.1 L
  atin America 447 2.1 India 853 2.1 1700
  100 West Asia 132 2.8 200 Africa 661 2.9 300

19
SO WHAT

• R vs K Reproductive Strategies
• Carrying Capacity (Sources and Sinks)
• GINI Index
• Richest and Poorest further apart

20
EXAMPLES

• Energy 2X 4X
• Land Food
• Water
• Air Pollution
• Biodiversity

21
WHAT SPRAWL REALLY MEANS

• If population rises
• Disproportionately more land is used
• To accommodate disproportionately more dwellings
• Which require disproportionately more vehicles
  and miles
• Requiring disproportionately more energy

22
SO WHAT? COSTS

• In many countries and regions the population is
  directly related to
• Inversely to Growth of GNP 1.6 to 4.9
• Inversely to Index of Food Production per Capita
  
• 72 to 138 with 1000 as 1967 rate
• Inversely to Life Expectancy 36 to 77
• Infant Mortality Rates 6/1000 to 207/1000
• Number in School 2 to 100
• Literacy Rate 10 to 99.9
• Medical Care, Access to Clean Water, Etc. 0 to
  ?

23
SOLUTIONS

• Infanticide, Abortion, Sterilization,
  Contraception, Other
• Government Policy, Economic development
• Education, Health Care
• Family, Ethics, Role of Women

24
OVERALL COMPARISON

• More vs Less Developed Nations
• Population 1 vs 5
• Rate 0.5 vs lt2.0
• Urban 3/4 vs 1/3
• Income 15,000 vs lt800

25
STATE OF THE WORLD

• Figures 9-17 thru 9-19