Source: IPCC Climate Change 2001 Synthesis Report

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There is new and stronger evidence that most of
the warming observed over the last 50 years is
attributable to human activities. IPCC Third
Assessment Report, 2001
Source IPCC Climate Change 2001 Synthesis Report
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Global WarmingHere and Now

• (G)lobal warming exists, and we have to do
  something about it, and what we have to do is
  reduce carbon dioxide.
• -Dr. John Marburger, Science Advisor to
  President George W. Bush, March 1, 2005

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Minnesotas approximate greenhouse gas emissions

• 1990 120 million metric tons carbon dioxide
  equivalent
• 2004 150 million metric tons carbon dioxide
  equivalent

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Greenhouse gases emissions from Minnesota are
increasing. Emissions increased 21 between 1990
and 2004, but only about 1 between 2000 and
2004. About 85 of emissions are associated one
way or another with energy production and use.
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Science Concludes that to Stabilize the Climate

• we need a 60-80 reduction in greenhouse gas
  emissions. (The faster the better for the
  climate.)

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That sounds expensive
Stabilization will cost 1-4 of Global GDP,
according to four scenarios from IPCC.
Britains Secretary of State calls 50 years of
economic expansion in 50 years and 6 months,
instead.
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Stabilization Wedges Solving the Climate Problem
for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies
(Pacala and Socolow 2004)

• Humanity can solve the carbon and climate
  problem in the first half of this century simply
  by scaling up what we already know how to do.

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Needed Cut 7 billion tons of carbon per year

• Focusing on technologies that have the potential
  to produce a material difference.

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Minnesota reductions in C02 to achieve 1990
Levels by 2020. about 30 million tons over 14
years or roughly 2 million tons per year. 60 to
80 percent over the century requires 90 to 120
million tons, but spread out over 94 years, its
only one million to 1.4 million tons per year.
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Strategies available for reducing global carbon
emission rate by 1 GT/year

• Transportation
• Increase fuel economy for 2 billion cars from 30
  to 60 mpg
• Decrease car travel by half for 2 billion 30 mpg
  cars (from 10,000 to 5,000 miles per year )

Source Science Magazine Toward a Hydrogen
EconomyS. Pacala and R. Socolow August 2004
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Strategies (continued)
Power Plants 3. Increase coal burning
efficiency output from 32 today to 60 for
twice todays coal power 4. Replace 50 of coal
plants with natural gas plants 5. Replace coal
power with nuclear energy double worlds nuclear
capacity 6. Replace coal power with wind Add 2
million wind turbines 7. Replace coal power with
photovoltaic systems 700 times the current
capacity
Source Science Magazine Toward a Hydrogen
EconomyS. Pacala and R. Socolow August 2004
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Strategies (continued)

• Capturing CO2
• 8. Carbon capture and storage at baseload power
  plants
• 9. Capture CO2 at hydrogen plants
• 10. Capture CO2 at coal-to-synfuels plants

Source Science Magazine Toward a Hydrogen
EconomyS. Pacala and R. Socolow August 2004
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Strategies (continued)
Other 13. Add four million wind turbines to
produce H2 to replace gasoline in hybrid cars 14.
Replace some liquid fossil fuels with ethanol
generated from biomass 15. Efficiency Cut carbon
emissions by 25 in buildings and appliances
Source Science Magazine Toward a Hydrogen
EconomyS. Pacala and R. Socolow August 2004
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Strategies (continued)

• Conservation Preservation
• 11. Reduced deforestation
• and increase reforestation decrease
  tropical deforestation to zero plus add new tree
  plantations at twice current rate
• 12. Conservation tillage on all cropland

Source Science Magazine Toward a Hydrogen
EconomyS. Pacala and R. Socolow August 2004
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Keeping Climate in Control

• 50 times more wind power
• 700 times more solar power
• 60 mpg vehicles
• 34 million barrels per day of biofuels
• 25 increase in building
• energy efficiency
• 1,400 coal plants replaced
• with natural gas
• 1,600 gas-fired plants that
• capture and store carbon

• In the next 50 years, we need twice as much
  energy
• with no increase in carbon dioxide emissions

All of the measures would need to be taken!
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Statement of the U.S.Catholic Bishops GLOBAL
CLIMATE CHANGE A plea for dialogue, prudence and
The common good 2001 The earth is the Lords
and all it holds Ps 241 We believe that our
response to climate change should be A sign of
our respect for Gods Creation. At its core,
global climate change is about the future of
Gods Creation and the one human
familyprotecting both the human environment
and the natural environment