The Science of Climate Change

1
The Science of Climate Change

• Where We Are The Consensus, the Controversy,
  and the Climate
• Robert Wyman
• Partner, Latham Watkins LLP

2
The IPCC

• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• Established in 1988 to assess scientific basis of
  climate change
• Open to all members of UN and WMO
• Intended to be policy-neutral
• Most work performed by more than 1000 volunteer
  scientists
• Earned share of Nobel Peace Prize in 2007

3
Current Structure of IPCC

• IPCC Panel comprised of government delegations
  sets agenda
• IPCC Bureau (31 members) provides guidance to
  Lead Authors
• Since 2001, most work of IPCC performed by 3
  Working Groups

4
How Climate Assessments are Made

• Assessments generated every 4-7 years
• Last report in 2007 next one expected in 2014
• Step 1 IPCC evaluates lessons from previous
  assessments
• Step 2 Panel elects IPCC Chair, the Co-Chairs
  of Working Groups, and the rest of Bureau
• Step 3 Working Group Co-Chairs select the
  Coordinating Lead Authors (CLAs) and Lead
  Authors (LAs)
• CLAs coordinate major sections of Working Group
  report
• LAs ensure work is based on best evidence and is
  brought together in a consistent manner

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How Climate Assessments are Made

• Step 4 CLAs and LAs receive input from
  Contributing Authors (CAs)
• CAs prepare technical information for
  assimilation
• Step 5 Reviews of Reports
• 2 formal reviews and one or more informal reviews
• Informal reviews provided by small number of
  scientists (usually other authors)
• Experts then review first complete draft
• LAs respond to comments, prepare second draft
• Review Editors ensure comments and controversial
  issues are handled appropriately
• Second Draft reviewed by same experts, government
  representatives

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How Climate Assessments are Made

• Step 6 Final Working Group Report
• Four layers
• main chapter texts, executive summaries,
  technical summaries
• Summary for Policymakers
• Summary is approved, line by line, in a session
  chaired by WG Co-Chairs and attended by
  government representatives
• After approval, entire report forwarded to Panel
  for acceptance
• Summaries for policymakers are most important
  because they
• have highest visibility
• Step 7 The Synthesis Report
• Combines findings of all working groups
• Only two layers
• Main report (divided into 6 topics) and a Summary
  for Policymakers
• Summary is approved line by line

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Inherent Obstacles with Study of Climate

• Available scientific information
• Is extensive, multinational, and
  multidisciplinary
• Extends across multiple spatial and temporal
  scales
• Subject to different interpretations and a wide
  range of uncertainties
• Climate change is politically charged due to
  economic consequences
• Traditional linear science-for-policy model will
  not work
• Expert Judgment essential

8
Additional Difficulties for WGII and WGIII

• WG I physical climate analysis based on
• Natural science disciplines
• Peer-reviewed literature
• Global models and observations
• WG II and WG III
• Because focused on the effects of and the
  responses to climate change, analyses based on
• Social science disciplines
• Fewer experts
• Non-peer reviewed literature (gray literature)

9
The conclusions of IPCC drive policy decisions at
home and abroad

• Ex EPAs recent endangerment finding that
  greenhouse gases are a danger to public health
• Finding based on IPCC conclusions
• Endangerment finding sets up regulation of
  greenhouse gases through the Clean Air Act
• Ex IPCCs work provided scientific basis for
  proposed cap and trade legislation that
  recently passed the U.S. House of Representatives

10
Key Findings of IPCC

• Second Assessment Report (1995)
• Climate has changed over the past century
• Global mean surface air temperature has increased
  between 0.3 and 0.6 degrees C since late 19th
  century
• Global sea level has risen between 10 and 25 cm
  over the past 100 years rise may be related to
  increase in global mean temperature
• The balance of evidence suggests a discernible
  human influence on global climate

11
Key Findings of IPCC

• Third Assessment Report (2001)
• Temperature increase in 20th century likely to
  have been the largest of any century in past 100
  years
• Very likely that the 1990s was the warmest
  decade on record (since 1861) and 1998 was the
  warmest year
• New, stronger evidence that most warming observed
  over last 50 years attributable to human
  activities

12
Key Findings of IPCC

• Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) (2007)
• Most warming of past 50 years is very likely
  (odds 9 out of 10) due to human increases in
  greenhouse gases
• Consensus Warming of the climate system is
  unequivocal, as is now evident from observations
  of increases in global average air and ocean
  temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice,
  and rising global average sea level

13
Other Scientific Findings

• Observed change is faster than expected
• Newer studies foresee greater change impacts
• Climate change impacts are already affecting the
  U.S.

14
Faster Change Large Ice Sheets
IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) The Antarctic
ice sheet as a whole is likely to increase in
mass during the 21st century. IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report (2007) the ice sheets in
Greenland and Antarctica have very likely been
contributing to sea level rise over 1993 to
2003. Shepherd Wingham (2007) data show that
Antarctica and Greenland are each losing mass
overall.
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15
Greater Sea Level Rise
15
Pew Center Science Brief 2
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GCRP Report

• Key Findings
• Global warming is unequivocal and primarily
  human-induced
• Climate changes are underway in the U.S. and
  projected to grow
• Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring
  now and are expected to increase

This report isby far the most up to date,
comprehensive, and authoritative assessment of
climate change impacts on the United States. It
is focused on what is already happening and
what is expected to happen going forward under
both low-emission scenarios where we elect to
take serious measures to reduce the pace and
magnitude of climate change, and under
higher-emission scenarios in which we
dont. John Holdren, Presidents Science
Advisor GCRP Press Conference, June 2009
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• NORTHWEST
• Declining snowpack affects water, hydro
• Loss of coldwater fish
• Increased wildfires

• NORTHEAST
• More extreme heat
• Declining air quality
• Increase in heavy rain
• Loss of sugar maple

• GREAT PLAINS
• Ag stresses from water availability, higher temps
• Alterations of habitat

• MIDWEST
• More heat waves
• Ag stresses from floods, droughts, pests

• SOUTHWEST
• Scarce water supplies
• Incr. drought, wildfires, invasive species

• SOUTHEAST
• SLR and incr. hurricane intensity
• Droughts, reduced water avail.
• Heat stress, extreme weather

• ALASKA
• Hotter, drier summers
• Loss of sea ice
• Thawing permafrost damages infrastructure

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Extreme Heat
US GCRP Climate Impacts Report
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Climate on the Move
US GCRP Climate Impacts Report
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20
Climate on the Move
Projected Heat Related Deaths in Chicago
US GCRP Climate Impacts Report
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What a rise in sea level of 3.3 feet means for
the Mid-Atlantic region
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The Bottom Line . . .
I think that much of the foot dragging in
addressing climate change is a reflection of the
perception that climate change is way down the
road and that it only affects remote parts of
the planet. And this report demonstrates that
climate change is happening now and it's
happening in our own backyards and it affects the
kinds of things people care about.
Dr. Jane Lubchenco, NOAA Administrator GCRP Press
Conference, June 2009
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23
Or is it . . .

• The Recent Controversies
• East Anglia CRU e-mail scandal
• IPCC admits errors in the 2007 assessment
• Independent Reviews
• U.K. Investigation of CRU e-mails (July 2010)
• U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public
  Works Minority Staff Report on CRU e-mails (Feb
  2010)
• InterAcademy Council (IPCC review) (August 2010)
• Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (IPCC
  review) (July 2010)

24
The East Anglia Controversy

• The Climate Research Unit, University of East
  Anglia
• CRU is a small research unit which, over the last
  30 years, has played an important role in climate
  science
• In November 2009, approximately 1000 e-mails from
  CRU scientists were hacked
• E-mails raise question of scientists integrity

25
Why is the important?

• A number of CRU scientists played important roles
  in generating IPCC reports
• Important to remember that the CRU is not the
  IPCC it is just a small unit that contributes to
  IPCC findings

In case you are falling asleep, This chart is a
joke . . . This is not CRUs scientific method
But some opponents claim it is
26
Roles of CRU Scientists in IPCC Reports
Author Number of e-mails Role
Philip Jones 174 Director, CRU, UEA and Coordinating Lead Author IPCC 4th Assessment Report
Michael Mann 140 Director, Earth System Science Centre, Pennsylvania State University (from 2005), and Lead Author IPCC 3rd Assessment Report
Keith Briffa 117 Professor, CRU, UEA and Lead Author IPCC 4th Assessment Report
Jonathan Overpeck 90 Institute Director, University of Arizona and Coordinating Lead Author IPCC 4th AR
Tim Osborn 59 Academic Fellow, CRU, UEA and Contributing Author IPCC 4th AR
Ben Santer 51 Researcher, Lawrence Livermore National Lab, US and Contributing Author IPCC 4th AR
Tom Wigley 35 Former Director of CRU Scientist, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research Contributing Author IPCC 4th AR
27
A sampling of the CRU allegations

• Is the famous Hockey Stick chart a product of
  cooked science?
• Hockey Stick charts temperatures over last 1000
  years

28
Hockey Stick Controversy

• The Divergence Problem
• No thermometers pre-1850
• So, use a proxy. For example, use tree ring
  density to chart temperatures
• Hockey Stick Chart based on four such proxies
• One created by Briffa (tree ring), one by Jones,
  and two by Mann
• Next chart shows all reconstructions from IPCC
  3rd AR (2001)

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Hockey Stick Controversy
Where did the green line go?
30
Hockey Stick Controversy

• The green line declines around 1960
• Chart below shows original unpublished data

Tree ring model shows a temperature decline after
1960 Is the earth unequivocally warming?
Also note the black lines they represent
measured temperature. They begin around 1850
Red proxy line also declines a bit then goes
back up
31
Hockey Stick Controversy
What to Do?

• Green line decline sends Briffa, Jones, and Mann
  into a frenzy
• Scientists are concerned that the green line
  decline will contradict the idea of unprecedented
  warming
• Briffa responds in an e-mail

From Keith Briffa CRU To Chris Folland UK
Met Office Phil Jones CRU Michael E. Mann
University of Virginia Cc Tom Karl National
Climatic Data Center NOAA September 22, 1999
Subject RE IPCC revisions . . . I know there
is pressure to present a nice tidy story as
regards 'apparent unprecedented warming in a
thousand years or more in the proxy data but in
reality the situation is not quite so simple. We
don't have a lot of proxies that come right up
to date and those that do (at least a significant
number of tree proxies ) some unexpected changes
in response that do not match the recent warming.
. . .
32
Hide the Decline
From Phil Jones CRU To Ray Bradley
University of Massachusetts, Amherst Michael
E. Mann University of Virginia Malcolm Hughes
University of Arizona Cc Keith Briffa CRU
Tom Osborn CRU52 November 16, 1999 Subject
Diagram for WMO World Meteorological
Organization Statement Dear Ray, Mike and
Malcolm, Once Tim's got a diagram here we'll
send that either later today or first thing
tomorrow. Ive just completed Mikes Nature
trick of adding in the real temps to each series
for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) and
from 1961 for Keiths to hide the decline.
Mike's series got the annual land and marine
values while the other two got April-Sept for NH
Northern Hemisphere land N of 20N. The latter
two are real for 1999, while the estimate for
1999 for NH combined is 0.44C wrt 61-90. The
Global estimate for 1999 with data through Oct
is 0.35C cf. 0.57 for 1998. Thanks for the
comments, Ray. Cheers Phil
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Hide the Decline

• Cut off tree ring data where it begins downward
  trend (around 1961)
• And merge line with recorded temperatures

• Any scientist ought to know that you just cant
  mix and match proxy and actual data. Theyre
  apples and oranges.
• Phillip Scott emeritus professor of biogeography
  at Londons School of Oriental and African
  Studies

Decline Hidden
34
Fallout

• Remember, the hide the decline trick was
  performed on the 2001 IPCC report, not the 2007
  report
• UK assesses the controversy
• Determines that similar information concerning
  tree ring proxies presented in 4th report was not
  misleading
• But the information provided in the iconic
  graph of the 3rd report was misleading.
• Chart did not adequately explain methods
• Overall, this error does not undermine the
  conclusions of the IPCCthat climate change is
  happening and is probably caused by humans

35
Other criticisms

• In addition to hide the decline, UK assessors
  determined that the e-mails revealed that
• Scientists demonstrated a consistent pattern of
  failing to display the proper degree of openness
• CRU researchers responses for requests of
  information were unhelpful and defensive

36
Other Views

• The Senate Minority Staff on the EPW Committee
  was more harsh in its assessment
• Determined the scientists tried to undermine peer
  review
• Were actively pursuing an agenda
• Does this mean climate change is a hoax?

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The Debate
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Next ControversyIPCC Admits Errors on 4th AR

• Reported errors are largely unrelated to the CRU
  e-mail controversy
• Jan 20, 2010 announces error
• AR 4 asserted Glaciers in the Himalayas are
  receding faster than in any part of the world . .
  . the likelihood of them disappearing by the year
  2035 and perhaps sooner is very high.
• IPCC official admits error. It is so wrong it
  is not even worth discussing

39
Another Error

• In February 2010 IPCC admits another error in
  their 4th AR
• Report asserted that 55 of Netherlands was
  currently below sea level. Report traced this
  figure to global warming.
• IPCC later correct assertion
• Only 26 of the country was below sea level,
• 55 is at risk of flooding

40
Errors Prompt Independent Review of IPCC
Procedures

• Review by Netherlands Environmental Assessment
  Agency
• Findings
• Only one other major error in AR 4
• Report projected a 50 to 60 decrease in
  productivity of anchovy fisheries on African West
  Coast
• The report should have read that there appeared
  to be a 50 to 60 decrease in extreme wind and
  seawater turbulence, which may lead to some
  unquantified negative effects on anchovy
  population

41
Other Dutch Findings

• Summary conclusions presented in the Summaries
  for Policymakers were well founded and did not
  contain significant errors
• But some minor inaccuracies in summary
  conclusions, and
• Seven of the 32 summary conclusions on the
  regional impacts of global warming contain
  information that could not be sufficiently traced
  to the underlying source within the Working Group
  II report

42
More findings

• In the Summaries for Policymakers, the WGII
  assessments single out negative effects of
  warming
• This risk oriented approach of focusing on the
  negative not sufficiently disclosed in the report
• Report also highlights risks at upper end of
  uncertainty range
• Does not put information in context
• As a result, policymakers often are not aware of
  potential benefits of warming
• Benefits often buried in technical layers of
  report
• Ex Synthesis Report contains discussion on crop
  yields that are likely to be reduced in Africa,
  but does not mention crop yields that may
  increase due to global warming

43
Report Recommendations and Conclusions

• Dutch findings do not contradict main conclusion
  of IPCC on impact, adaption, and vulnerability
  related to climate change (WG II)
• Findings do not contradict IPCC conclusion that
• Global warming is unequivocal and
• Very Likely caused by human activity
• But room for improvement recommendations
• Provide public website for submission of errors
  found in published reports
• Provide stronger underpinnings for
  generalizations
• Strengthen review process
• More disclosure of methodology

44
InterAcademy Council

• Multinational organization of science academies
• Similar findings and recommendations
• Assessment reports successful overall
• But IPCC must structurally reform
• Needs more day-to-day leadership (Executive
  Director needed)
• Needs to ensure controversies adequately
  addressed
• More targeted review process to focus on specific
  problems
• Quantify uncertainty where possible (likelihood
  scale should be used where appropriate)
• Authors need to indicate scientific basis for
  assigning a probability that an event will occur
• Greater emphasis on transparency

45
Most Recent Developments

• 2010 on track to be a record hot year (running
  neck and neck with 1998, the hottest year on
  record)
• Recently discovered that the Greenland and West
  Antarctic Ice Caps are melting at half the speed
  previously predicted

46
In the end . . .

• Climate Change
• Is it happening?
• Is it caused by man?
• Even if it is happening, can we counter it?
• Should we counter it, or should we adapt?
• You decide

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Special Thanks

• A number of the slides in this presentation were
  created by the Pew Center on Global Climate
  Change