Aviation and the Kyoto Protocol

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Aviation and the Kyoto Protocol ICAO Colloquium
on Environmental Aspects of Aviation April 2001,
Montreal, Canada Christine Zumkeller UNFCCC
secretariat
April 2001
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Content
1. The science of climate change 2. Introduction
to UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol 3. Aviation within
the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol 4. Open issues
under the Kyoto Protocol
April 2001
3
Global temperatures

• IPCC

Source IPCC
April 2001
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Pattern of changing temperatures
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

• The pattern of changing temperatures, between
  the present day and the turn of the century,
  across the surface of the earth as observed

April 2001
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Concerns

• global temperatures have risen by 0.6 C
• since industrialization
• global temperatures will rise by 1.4 - 5.8 C
  (estimated)
• by 2100 -- land areas heat more rapidly
• sea level up by 9-88 cm (estimated)
• by 2100 -- will rise for further 1000 years
• more energy in the system
• ? more severe weather events, storms, etc.
  

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Expected Impacts

• Ecosystems may change dramatically
• ( flooding and damage to low lying areas )
• impacting on human animal health, and
  welfare
• Impacts on developing countries
• expected to be particularly severe

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Radiative forcing
Source IPCC
April 2001
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IPCC report on aviation

• Emissions of CO2 from aviation
• 0.14 Gt C/year - 2 of global
  anthropogenic CO2
• and growing (to 3 in 2050)
• Radiative forcing of aviation
• CO2, ozone, methane, water vapor, contrails,
  aerosols, not cirrus clouds
• - 1992 3.5 of all anthropogenic forcing in
  1992
• - 2050 2.6 to 11 times the 1992 value

Source IPCC report on aviation and the global
atmosphere
April 2001
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Content
1. The science of climate change 2. Introduction
to UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol 3. Aviation within
the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol 4. Open issues
under the Kyoto Protocol
April 2001
10
Time Table

• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
  Change (UNFCCC) adopted (Rio)

1992
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) entered into force
1994
First Conference of the Parties (COP1, Berlin)
1995
Third Conference of the Parties (COP3,
Kyoto)Kyoto Protocol adopted
1997
Sixth Conference of the Parties (COP6, The Hague)
2000
Sixth Conference of the Parties resumed (COP6
part II, Bonn)
2001
Kyoto Protocol may enter into force
2002 ?
April 2001
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Climate Change Convention
Objective Stabilization of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that
would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system. Such a
level should be achieved within a time-frame
sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally
to climate change, to ensure that food production
is not threatened and to enable economic
development to proceed in a sustainable manner.
April 2001
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Climate Change Convention
Principles on the basis of equity and in
accordance with their common but differentiated
responsibilities and respective capabilities.
Accordingly, the developed country Parties should
take the lead in combating climate change and the
adverse effects thereof. The Parties should
take precautionary measures ... Where there are
threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack
of full scientific certainty should not be used
as a reason for postponing such measures
April 2001
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Kyoto Protocol

• Developed countries to decrease emissions
  2008-2012 compared to 1990 All developed
  countries -5 USA -7 EU -8 Japan -6 Rus
  sian Federation 0
• Includes CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6
• Afforestation, reforestation, deforestation and
  other land-use activities may count
• Mechanisms (joint implementation, emissions
  trading, clean development mechanism)

April 2001
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Content
1. The science of climate change 2. Introduction
to UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol 3. Aviation within
the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol 4. Open issues
under the Kyoto Protocol
April 2001
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International aviation emissionsUNFCCC
Decision 9/2 (INC, 1994) In providing
information on emissions from international
aviation and marine bunker fuels, Parties should
include such data, in a separate category, in
their inventories of emissions on the basis of
fuel sold and should, as far as possible, not
include them in total national emissions Decisio
n 4/CP.1 (1995) address the issue of the
allocation and control of emissions from
international bunker fuels, and report on this
work to the Conference of the Parties at its
second session
April 2001
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International aviation emissionsKyoto Protocol
Decision 2/CP.3 ...emissions based upon fuel
sold to ships or aircraft engaged in
international transport should not be included in
national totals, but reported separately ?
International aviation emissions are not part of
the quantitative target urges the Subsidiary
Body for Scientific and Technological Advice to
further elaborate on the inclusion of these
emissions in the overall greenhouse gas
inventories of Parties...
April 2001
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International aviation emissionsKyoto Protocol

• Article 2.2 of the Kyoto Protocol
• Annex I Parties shall pursue limitation or
  reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases from
  aviation and marine bunker fuels, working through
  the International Civil Aviation Organization
  (ICAO) and the International Maritime
  Organization (IMO), respectively.

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Emissions
domestic
international
Developed countries
Aviation
Developing countries
April 2001
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International aviation emissionsSince Kyoto

• Invited ICAO and IMO to inform of their work
  plans relating to emissions based on fuel sold to
  ships or aircraft engaged in international
  transport and to provide regular progress reports
• Requested to continue to develop the cooperation
  with ICAO and IMO and encouraged the
  participation of representatives of the UNFCCC
  process in relevant meetings of ICAO and IMO
• Encouraged ICAO and IMO to complete their work on
  this matter as soon as possible
• Noted the importance of coordination by Parties
  at the national level

April 2001
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Content
1. The science of climate change 2. Introduction
to UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol 3. Aviation within
the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol 4. Open issues
under the Kyoto Protocol
April 2001
21
(No Transcript)
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Issuesat COP6 (November 2000)

• Support for developing countries
• Mechanisms (joint implementation, emissions
  trading, clean development mechanism)
• The use of land-use, land-use change and forestry
  to meet targets
• Rules related to non-compliance with the target

April 2001
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Kyoto Protocol
Mechanisms

• Joint Implementation of projects between
  developed countries
• Emissions trading between developed countries
• Clean development mechanism- Joint projects in
  developing countries for SD !- Financed by
  developed countries, which can use emissions
  reductions to meet their commitments- Possibly
  unilateral

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Emissions trading
Party A
Party B
Transaction

• Parties receive assigned amount
• Parties are responsible for compliance

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Emissions trading One option
Party A
Party B
Transaction
Entity F
Entity C
Entity E
Entity B
Entity D
Entity A
Transactions ?
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Mechanisms

• To what extent can the mechanisms be used to
  reach targets?
• What use can be made of units acquired through
  one of the mechanisms?
• Should there be a fee on all mechanisms to fund
  adaptation?
• e

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Mechanisms

• How could one prevent that more units of assigned
  amount were transferred than were available for
  transfer (overselling) ?
• Which projects can be implemented in developing
  countries (CDM)?
• es
• - Nuclear? Forestry?

April 2001
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Land-use and forestry

• What is a forest, deforestation,
  afforestation?
• Which and how much of those activities may be
  used?

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Non-compliance

• What if the target is not reached?

April 2001
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Example
Projection without measures 20
Trading
Joint implementation
Projects in developing countries (CDM)
Forests and land-use
Emissions
Other domestic efforts
Target -8
2010
1990
April 2001
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Next steps

• Official outcome of COP 6 - Meeting suspended
  - Forward texts to next session- Explore
  possibilities to resume COP6 in the first half of
  2001
• COP6 will resume 16 to 27 July 2001, Bonn, Germany

April 2001
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More information
www.unfccc.int Christine Zumkeller czumkeller_at_unf
ccc.int
April 2001