Energy Conservation, Renewable Energy, and Enhanced Conventional Energy

1
Energy Conservation, Renewable Energy, and
Enhanced Conventional Energy
2
An Open Field Village Source Cloughall College,
UK
3
Reconstructed medieval house, West Stow, Suffolk
4
Open fields after enclosure Source
Northumberland and Durham county councils
5
Open fields after enclosure Middleton, Derbyshire
6
Hundreds of English villages were abandoned
during the Black Death. This is the village of
Middle Ditchford in Gloucestershire. You can see
the outlines of the buildings.
http//passmoreshistory.homestead.com/files/Unit_3
_Lesson__7_sheet_edited.ppt.
7
Source Abbeydale Industrial Hamlet Sheffield,
Yorkshire The Tilt Forge Wheel
8
Source Shepherd Wheel Sheffield, Yorkshire The
Grinding Workshop
9
Forge sites on Sheffield rivers
10
From the author of Robinson Crusoe

• This town of Sheffield is very populous and
  large, the streets narrow, and the houses dark
  and black, occasioned by the continued smoke of
  the forges which are always at work.
• Here they make all sorts of cutlery-ware, but
  especially that of edge tools, knives, razors,
  axes etc. and nails and here the only mill of
  the sort, which was in use in England for some
  time, was set up, for turning their grindstones.
• The manufacture of hard ware is ... much
  increased... and they talk of 30000 men employed
  in the whole.
• from A Tour Through the Whole Island of Great
  Britain by Daniel Defoe published in 1724

11
Sea Coal Photo Glen Smart
12
Newcomens mine engine Original diagram
13
Newcomen Engine installed in Yorkshire, now in
Henry Ford Museum
14
New Hampshire Mill Source Conservationtech.com
15
Oil gusher in New Straitsville, Ohio Source
Town of New Straitsville, Ohio
16
Model T Ford University of Wisconsin
17
(No Transcript)
18
(No Transcript)
19
Levittown, Long Island, in 1958 Source Unknown
20
Megopolis Source NOAA's National Geophysical
Data Center (NGDC), in Boulder, Colorado, working
with the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program
(DMSP)
21
(No Transcript)
22
Remember

• Stabilization wedges
• Energy efficiency
• Methane management
• Decarbonized electricity
• Decarbonized fuels
• Decarbonized transportation (electric cars, etc)
• Nukes
• Forests and soils

23
The triangle can be filled by a portfolio of 7
wedges
Each wedge accounts for 1 GtC/yr in 2055
Methane Management
Energy Efficiency
Forests Soils
14 GtC/y
Fuel Displacement by Low-Carbon Electricity
Stabilization
Decarbonized Electricity
Triangle
7 GtC/y
2055
2005
2005
2004
2054
Decarbonized Fuels
This particular set of wedges is only
illustra-tive, not prescriptive.
24
Emissions stabilization goals

• 450 ppm, lt 2 degrees Celsius AAT
• Either 50 or 80 reduction below 1990 levels by
  2050
• EU, IPCC, UN

25
Wedge 1 Energy Efficiency

• Far more cost-efficient than renewable
  development
• Old-fashioned, unsexy, but eminently sensible
• Insulating and sealing old buildings-- the best
  energy savings per dollar
• Replacing old, worn out buildings with new,
  super-insulated, passive solar buildings LEED
  standards
• Appliance and light bulb exchange -- third best
  savings per dollar Energy Star ratings
• Living closer to work, driving less,
  walking/biking more, downsizing engine, getting
  more fuel-efficient car/truck
• Total as much as 60 reduction

26
Featured kit The Hallowell Acadia air-source
heat pump. Made in Maine
Other examples Williams Windmill http//www.afri
gadget.com/2007/06/25/williams-windmill/ Straw
Bale House http//www.unity.edu/facultypages/womer
sley/intro.htm Farm House retrofit http//www.unit
y.edu/facultypages/aphillippi/house.htm http//www
.unity.edu/facultypages/womersley/housenergy.htm
27
Types of household insulation Cellulose Fiberglas
s Foams and foam boards Natural straw, wool,
hemp, etc R-value Insulation of 1 inch wood is
R1
28
Photo Five Star insulation Moist pack
cellulose R 3.8 per inch 3.5 inch cavity
R13.3 5.5 inch R20.9
29
Photo Oikos Foam/spray foam Many different
kinds Can be made of cornstarch-based
material R3 - 8 per inch
30
Straw bale insulation Photo Alison Gannet
31
(No Transcript)
32
EPA energy star fridges Up to 70 more
efficient Old fridge 0.800 KWH x 30 runtime x
24 hours x 365 days x 0.15/KWH 315/year New
fridge 0.300 KWH x 30 runtime x 24 hours x 365
days x 0.15/KWH 118.2/year
33
Alternative homework assignment hand in your
analysis print-out
Home energy saver online http//hes.lbl.gov/
34
(No Transcript)
35
(No Transcript)
36
(No Transcript)
37
(No Transcript)
38

• Energy efficiency
• Obvious thermal bridging on Maplewood

39
(No Transcript)
40
(No Transcript)
41
(No Transcript)
42
(No Transcript)
43
(No Transcript)
44
(No Transcript)
45
(No Transcript)
46
(No Transcript)
47
Wedge 2Methane management
48
(No Transcript)
49
But seriously
50
Photo North Davis Sewer District
51
Photo Treehugger.com
52
(No Transcript)
53
Remember

• Stabilization wedges
• Energy efficiency
• Methane management
• Decarbonized electricity
• Decarbonized fuels
• Decarbonized transportation (electric cars, etc)
• Nukes
• Forests and soils

54
The triangle can be filled by a portfolio of 7
wedges
Each wedge accounts for 1 GtC/yr in 2055
Methane Management
Energy Efficiency
Forests Soils
14 GtC/y
Fuel Displacement by Low-Carbon Electricity
Stabilization
Decarbonized Electricity
Triangle
7 GtC/y
2055
2005
2005
2004
2054
Decarbonized Fuels
This particular set of wedges is only
illustra-tive, not prescriptive.
55
Wedge 3 Renewable Energy(Decarbonized
electricity)
56
(No Transcript)
57
(No Transcript)
58
European Power and Energy magazine
59
http//www.youtube.com/watch?vbaeGMF-z0fMfeature
player_embedded http//www.youtube.com/watch?v
FmJxUsXWajo
60
Wind Power 101
61
Wind 101 1 KW/hr. Low tech, homebuilt
turbine www.otherpower.com
62
Wind 101 2 MW/hour High tech turbine in
Scotland Heriot Watt University
63
Community Wind SystemsMae'r tyrbin 'Pwer Pobl
Typical turbine is small, but communities can own
full scale windfarms Offset previous power
purchases, or sell wholesale power Distributed
supply reduces transmission losses Require 12
mph average wind sites land and
off-shore Economies to small scale Net
metering Major turbine mfg GE, Siemens,
Vestas, Gamasa Also refurbished turbines
Vestas, Micon, Nordtank Access to private and
public finance, cheaper notes, access to
community expertise and easier planning
permission

Bro Dyfi Community Renewables Machynlleth, West
Wales
64
Mars Hill wind farm, Maine. Photo Roger Duval
65
Mars Hill wind farm, Maine. Photo Roger Duval
66
Fox Islands Wind Farm (Photo Prairie Weather blog
67
(No Transcript)
68
Photo Mesa wind
Mars Hill wind farm, Maine. Photo Roger Duval
69
(No Transcript)
70
(No Transcript)
71
http//www.youtube.com/watch?vQRSAvD8VAbI
72
Photo Mesa wind
Mars Hill wind farm, Maine. Photo Roger Duval
73
(No Transcript)
74
Wind farm sound model in the case of spherical
spreading from a point source, which is due to a
noise source radiating sound equally in all
directions, the sound level is reduced by 6 dB
for each doubling of distance from the source.
However, the wind also plays a role. All the
turbines have a height of about 29 m and are
spaced 50 m apart in the x- and y-directions. The
ground is modeled as a rigid infinite plane.
75
(No Transcript)
76
(No Transcript)
77
(No Transcript)
78
(No Transcript)
79
(No Transcript)
80
(No Transcript)
81

• Wind power pros
• Cheap 4 or less per installed watt
• Long life of turbines (better than fossil fuel
  plants, possibly better than nuclear)
• No toxic waste, no pollution (except from
  manufacture)
• New turbines 300m, 5MW/H (each one can power
  8,000 houses if it ran 24/7) (Stop press new 700
  meter, 20KWH models)
• Not middle-eastern oil -- no international
  conflict likely, no petrostate phenomenon
• Cons
• Many people find turbines ugly
• Bad rap from certain wildlife people (birds and
  bats)
• Access roads needed
• Usually put up in quite wild places (but not
  always)

82
Lies, damn lies and wind turbine lies Too
intermittent? Couldnt happen without
subsidy? Doesnt reduce GHGs?
83
(No Transcript)
84
Maine has enough wind in some places USDOE
Maine wind resource map The majority of Maine is
listed as a Class 1 to 2 wind resource
area Estimated average wind speed 5.24 m/s
85
(No Transcript)
86
Wind Taking Off Worldwide
Wind Leaders (MW) 1. Germany - 18,428 2. Spain -
10,027 3. USA 9,149 4. India 4,430 5.
Denmark 3,122
Total 59,000 MW at end of 2005 40 growth
over 2004
Based on information supplied by International
Energy Agency.
87
Wind Taking Off Worldwide
Wikipedia image
88
NRG TallTower Wind Assessment System
89
Skippy the Hamster www.otherpower.com
90
Skippy the Hamster says Wind power is a gas,
man
91
Solar Power 101

• Active solar
• Solar thermal
• Solar photovoltaic
• Passive solar
• passiv haus
• The Unity House
• The Terra Haus dorm

92
US Federal Govt
93
Including

• Unity College Jimmy Carter Panel legacy
• http//www.youtube.com/watch?v_88idk1VJGU

94
Gasoline ration coupons were printed for
emergency use (but never issued) during the
energy crisis in 1979. (1979) SourceUS
Department of Energy
95
Photo White House Historical Society
96
From the White House Historical Society

• Solar Panels on the White House during the Carter
  administration - Jimmy Carter Library
• In response to the economic crisis created by the
  Arab oil embargo and the nation's growing
  dependence on foreign oil, President Jimmy Carter
  called for a comprehensive campaign to conserve
  energy. He set an example during his
  administration by promoting the use of solar
  energy by installing solar heating panels on the
  roof of the West Wing in 1977. They were removed
  in the 1980s.
• (American Solar Energy Society web site Boston
  Globe 6/21/00)

97
White House cabana showing flush-mount solar
water heating system (installed 2003) Photo
Evergreen Solar
98
White House showing solar electrical
system. Photo Evergreen Solar
99
How do Solar Cells Work? From Solar Power The
Facts, by Living Lakes
Solar cells are first cousins to transistors
and LEDs. The bottom layer of the solar cell has
a small quantity of boron in it to make it
positive, and the top layer of the cell has
phosphorous in it to make it negative. The
interface between these two layers creates an
electrical field and is called a junction. Light
consists of particles called photons. When light
hits a solar cell some of the photons are
absorbed, freeing electrons in the silicon
(electrons occur naturally in all materials.) If
the photons have enough energy when they hit the
top layer of the solar cell they are able to hit
the electrons hard enough to overcome the
electrical field at the junction allowing them to
move through the bottom layer of silicon into an
external, electrical circuit. As they flow
through the external circuit, they give up their
energy to the batteries or directly to the motor
before returning to the solar cell, completing
the electrical circuit.
100
Diagram courtesy of Chimacum School District No.
49
101
Sandia solar power plant, California
102
(No Transcript)
103
Peak load winter and summer. World Nuclear
Association
104
Passive solar The passiv haus standard from
Germany
105
Passive solar The Unity House, 2008
106

• Solar power pros
• Very long life of panels (better than anything
  else that makes power except a sustainably
  managed biomass forest, ie a woodlot)
• No toxic waste, no pollution (except from
  manufacture)
• Can site solar power stations in the desert,
  transmit power over long distances
• Solar roofs, solar paint -- each house can be its
  own power station
• Use electric cars -- solar charging stations
• Passive solar house design, little cost, great
  benefits, great comfort (the German passiv haus
  standard)
• Cons
• High upfront cost (whats your discount rate),
  price reducing rapidly since 2008
• Sun only shines between 2.5 and 7 hours a day in
  temperate zone need storage system (heat mass,
  batteries, pumped storage, hydropower,
  net-metering) or peak demand management
• Some toxic chemicals used in manufacture, and a
  lot of heat energy
• Not middle-eastern oil -- no international
  conflict likely, no petrostate phenomenon

107
http//www.youtube.com/watch?vvIXkB5nrEiY
108
Ocean Renewable Energy101
109
From Tidal Power Energy from the
Sea http//www.darvill.clara.net/altenerg/tidal.h
tm
110
La Rance Tidal Power Station (Image courtesy of
Popular Mechanics)
111
Oscillating Water Column The Oscillating Water
Column generates electricity in a two step
process. As a wave enters the column, it forces
the air in the column up the closed column past a
turbine, and increases the pressure within the
column. As the wave retreats, the air is drawn
back past the turbine due to the reduced air
pressure on the ocean side of turbine. Murdoch
University, Australia
112
WavegenLIMPET Oscillating water column
generator in Scotland
113
Pelamis wave power prototype, Bay of Biscay
114
Maines ocean renewable energy Projects Pictures
Colby College
115
Hydropower 101
116
Diagram of hydro-electric scheme Western Power
Corporation
117
Hydropower The Hoover Dam From
www.greenenergyjobs.com/ images/hoover-dam
118
Hydro dam signage Federal Energy Regulatory Agency
119
Used with permission, Maine Atlantic Salmon
Commission
120
DC hydropower generator from original 1920s
factory plant, Dearborn, MI Henry Fords pride
and joy, two of these served 2,000 households as
well as the car factory Ford Museum photo
121
Powerhouse generator bay, Grand Coulee dam, U of
Iowa photo
122
Small scale hydropower in Nepal Pelton Wheel
turbine http//www.geocities.com/dieret/re/Hydro/h
ydro.html
123
Pumped storage Racoon Mountain, TVA (Wikipedia)
124
Pumped storage Racoon Mountain, TVA (Wikipedia)
125
The upper reservoir (Llyn Stwlan) and dam of the
Ffestiniog Pumped Storage Scheme in north Wales.
The four water turbines at the power station can
generate 360 MW of electricity within 60 seconds
of the need arising.Taken by Adrian Pingstone in
1988 and released to the public domain.
126
Biomass and biofuels 101
127
(No Transcript)
128
Modular biopower system. 15 kWe system to power
80 homes in the village of Alaminos in the
Philippines using coconut shells as the
fuel. http//www.gocpc.com/Images2/image20page.ht
m
129
The Sunpower EG-1000 Stirling Engine/Generator El
ectrical energy from woodchips Sunpower Inc.
130
US Federal Govt. Picture
131
McNiel Biomass Powerplant, Vermont US Federal
Govt. Picture
132
Geothermal Power 101
133
Geothermal energy makes itself apparent in
Iceland Baker Hughes Inc (drilling company)
134
Source BanJam Travel Pictures
135
(No Transcript)
136
Geothermal heat pumps for household use Either
using open loop wells or closed loop
coils Pictures US and Australian governments
137
Renewable Energy

• Wind, solar, ocean, hydropower, biomass,
  geothermal

138
AlsoImproved or Enhanced Conventional Energy

• Clean coal, nuclear, fuel cells, shale gas,
  gas hydrates

139
Peak load winter and summer. World Nuclear
Association
140
New slide goes here

• From NEWEEP webinar, after Nov 9th

141
Clean Coal 101 Improvements to combustion
142
Power Generation Thermal EfficiencyRemember the
Laws of Thermodynamics 1) Energy can be neither
created nor destroyed, and 2) No energy transfer
is 100 efficient

• Fuel Thermal efficiency CO2e factor
• Conventional coal 35-40 23
• Conventional oil 35-40 19
• Natural gas 35-40 12
• Coal combined cycle 50-55 15
• Coal co-generation 80-90 12
• Oil and gas
• Cogeneration 80-90 8-12
• (However, theres still mercury and acid rain
  pollution)

143
Clean Coal technologies

• Scrubbing
• Fluidized bed combustion
• Integrated gasification combined cycle
• Sequestration or CCS
• Combination of fluidized bed or IGCC with
  scrubbing and sequestration

144
Clean Coal 101 Fluidization and improvements to
scrubbing
145
Slide Gladstone Center for Clean Coal
146
Clean Coal 101 Scale of US deposits
147
Shale Gas and Oil

• Methane and Oil
• Geological deposits
• Pennsylvania, Colorado (Blackpool, UK?)
• Drilling, mining
• Carbon energy form

148
http//www.youtube.com/watch?vpR-SeU6HfyE
149
Liquified Natural Gas

• A bridge technology
• Controversial in Maine
• More controversial as oil prices rise

150
Natural gas production UK, Norway and
Khazakhstan BG Group photo
151
(No Transcript)
152
An LNG Terminal in Your Backyard?
Several major oil companies are seeking to lease
or purchase all or part of Sears Island, at
Searsport, Maine. We feel that such a plant would
be detrimental to the quality of life and to the
safety and economic welfare of the people who
live along the coast of Maine. In light of
international events since 9/11, no company can
assure us that any LNG storage facility or tanker
would be "safe." Economic development for
Searsport needs to include a plan for sustainable
development.not a terminal with a maximum life
span of 50 years. Friends of Sears Island
153
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
154
Gas Hydrates

• Methane
• Geological deposits
• Ocean shelves
• Drilling, dredging
• Carbon energy form

155
NOAA Ocean Explorer Program
156
Gas hydrate resources in peta-tonnes
157
Remember

• Stabilization wedges
• Energy efficiency
• Methane management
• Decarbonized electricity
• Decarbonized fuels
• Decarbonized transportation (electric cars, etc)
• Nukes
• Forests and soils

158
Wedge 4 Nuclear Power
159

• Nuclear Power Issues
• Power
• Waste
• Cost
• NIMBY

160
University of Michigan Ford Reactor core
161
Chernobyl, Ukraine, after the meltdown Source www
atomicarchive. com
162
From Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) Fig.
1 The distribution of Iodine-131 from the
Chernobyl nuclear accident. The figure depicts
the radioactivity field in Bq/kg at 850 mb. level
on 00 UST, May 12, 1986, approximately 384 hours
after the reactor explosion (the further details
are discussed by Pudykiewicz, 1989)
163
Three Mile Island nuclear plant, PA Source
www.atomicarchive.com
164
Three Mile Island nuclear plant, PA The damaged
core and radiation map Sources www.ceet.niu.edu/
faculty/vanmeer/nuc1.htm, and Kevin Briggs,
United States Disaster Preparedness Institute
165
Kevin Briggs, United States Disaster Preparedness
Institute
166
Davistown Museum photo Maine Yankee Nuclear
Power Plant
167
Maine Yankee being decommissioned. NYT photo
168
Mini nuclear plants to power 20,000 homes 13m
shed-size reactors will be delivered by
lorry Nuclear power plants smaller than a garden
shed and able to power 20,000 homes will be on
sale within five years, say scientists at Los
Alamos, the US government laboratory which
developed the first atomic bomb. The miniature
reactors will be factory-sealed, contain no
weapons-grade material, have no moving parts and
will be nearly impossible to steal because they
will be encased in concrete and buried
underground. The US government has licensed the
technology to Hyperion, a New Mexico-based
company which said last week that it has taken
its first firm orders and plans to start mass
production within five years. 'Our goal is to
generate electricity for 10 cents a watt anywhere
in the world,' said John Deal, chief executive of
Hyperion. 'They will cost approximately 25m
13m each. For a community with 10,000
households, that is a very affordable 250 per
home. Jon Vidal and Nick Rosen, for The Observer
Hyperion small scale nukes. Los Alamos lab diagram
169
From Wikipedia Although it is currently (2010)
uneconomic,1 a fast neutron reactor can reduce
the total radiotoxicity of nuclear waste, and
dramatically reduce the waste's lifetime.2
using all or almost all of the fuel in the waste.
Fast neutrons have an advantage in the
transmutation of nuclear waste. With fast
neutrons, the ratio between splitting and the
capture of neutrons of plutonium or minor
actinide is often larger than when the neutrons
are slower, at thermal or near-thermal
"epithermal" speeds. The transmuted odd-numbered
actinides (e.g. from Pu-240 to Pu-241) split more
easily. After they split, the actinides become a
pair of "fission products." These elements have
less total radiotoxicity. Since fission products
have a maximum half life of 27 years,3 the
result is to reduce nuclear waste lifetimes from
tens of millennia (from transuranic isotopes) to
a few centuries. The processes are not perfect,
but the remaining transuranics are reduced from a
significant problem to a tiny percentage of the
total waste, because any larger amounts can be
used as fuel. Fast reactors technically solve the
"fuel shortage" argument against uranium-fueled
reactors without assuming unexplored reserves, or
extraction from dilute sources such as ordinary
granite or the ocean. They permit nuclear fuels
to be bred from almost all the actinides,
including known, abundant sources of depleted
uranium and Thorium, and light water reactor
wastes. On average, more neutrons per fission are
produced from fissions caused by fast neutrons
than from those caused by thermal neutrons. This
results in a larger surplus of neutrons beyond
those required to sustain the chain reaction.
These neutrons can be used to produce extra fuel,
or to transmute long half-life waste to less
troublesome isotopes, such as was done at the
Phénix reactor in Marcoule in France, or some can
be used for each purpose. Though conventional
thermal reactors also produce excess neutrons,
fast reactors can produce enough of them to breed
more fuel than they consume. Such designs are
known as fast breeder reactors. The fast reactor
doesn't just transmute the inconvenient
even-numbered transuranic elements (notably
Pu-240 and u-238). It transmutes them, and then
fissions them for power, so that they these
former wastes would actually become valuable.
Fast Reactors Still dangerous, less waste
170
(No Transcript)
171
Remember

• Stabilization wedges
• Energy efficiency
• Methane management
• Decarbonized electricity
• Decarbonized fuels
• Decarbonized transportation (electric cars, etc)
• Nukes
• Forests and soils

172
Wedges 5 and 6 Decarbonized Fuels and
Transportation

• Fuel cell vehicles, battery EVs, hybrid EVs,
• plug-in hybrids, compressed air vehicles, etc, etc

173
Hydrogen Fuel Cells(and all other EV energy
storage systems, such as batteries or compressed
air)

• Pollution-free if hydrogen feedstock is
  pollution-free
• Hydrogen electrolysis
• Methane conversion
• Retail hydrogen storage

174
Fuel Cell technology from Ballard Power
175
Fuel Cell technology from Ballard Power
176
Fuel cell engine US government photo
177
Chevrolet Volt http//www.youtube.com/watch?vdVk
_j7dqcCY Hybrid trucks http//www.youtube.com/wa
tch?vfpOuzW75O0Q
178
Kenworth hybrid-electric truck
179

• Tiger all-electric utility truck

180

• CityCat
• Compressed air car

181
Remember

• Stabilization wedges
• Energy efficiency
• Methane management
• Decarbonized electricity
• Decarbonized fuels
• Decarbonized transportation (electric cars, etc)
• Nukes
• Forests and soils

182
Wedge 7 Forest and Soil Management
183
Permafrost researcher Sergei Zimov flares methane
from anaerobic decomposition of permafrost
soils. Unfortunately, theres plenty more where
this comes from
184
Erosion from warming reveals soil cliffs
containing millennia of organic matter mammoth
bones, dung and hair, bison bones, vegetation. As
this melts it decomposes, creating very stinky
summers, but also releasing methane. Zimov uses a
tank to help reduce forest advance which
accelerates melting Sergei Zimov photo
185
Leaf area index a tool to understand soils and
forest management in climate change http//www.c
crs.nrcan.gc.ca/optic/coarse/bio/images/lai_e.gif
186
Other forest and soils management priorities

• Forests
• Eastern forest re-growth a bright spot
• Tropical deforestation pay-to-protect
• Western forest management -- end of
  clear-cutting?
• Soils
• Biochar
• No-till
• Organic, and aerobic compost

187
NASA Earth Observatory Image
188
Partition of Anthropogenic Carbon Emissions into
Sinks
2000-2006
45 of all CO2 emissions accumulated in the
atmosphere
Atmosphere
The Airborne Fraction
The fraction of the annual anthropogenic
emissions that remains in the atmosphere
55 were removed by natural sinks
Land removes _ 30
Ocean removes _ 24
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
189
NASA Earth Observatory Image
190
Drought Effects on the Mid-Latitude Carbon Sinks
A number of major droughts in mid-latitudes have
contributed to the weakening of the growth rate
of terrestrial carbon sinks in these regions.
Angert et al. 2005, PNAS Buermann et al. 2007,
PNAS Ciais et al. 2005, Science
191
Attribution of Recent Acceleration of Atmospheric
CO2
1970 1979 1.3 ppm y-1 1980 1989 1.6 ppm
y1 1990 1999 1.5 ppm y-1

• To
• Economic growth
• Carbon intensity
• Efficiency of natural sinks

2000 - 2006 1.9 ppm y-1
65 - Increased activity of the global economy
17 - Deterioration of the carbon intensity of
the global economy
18 - Decreased efficiency of natural sinks
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
192
Remember

• Stabilization wedges
• Energy efficiency
• Methane management
• Decarbonized electricity
• Decarbonized fuels
• Decarbonized transportation (electric cars, etc)
• Nukes
• Forests and soils

193
Hubbert Peaks and Hoteling Rule

• M. King Hubbert Petroleum Geologist
• Harold Hotelling Conservative Economist

194
(No Transcript)
195
Remember

• Stabilization wedges
• Energy efficiency
• Methane management
• Decarbonized electricity
• Decarbonized fuels
• Decarbonized transportation (electric cars, etc)
• Nukes
• Forests and soils

196
The triangle can be filled by a portfolio of 7
wedges
Each wedge accounts for 1 GtC/yr in 2055
Methane Management
Energy Efficiency
Forests Soils
14 GtC/y
Fuel Displacement by Low-Carbon Electricity
Stabilization
Decarbonized Electricity
Triangle
7 GtC/y
2055
2005
2005
2004
2054
Decarbonized Fuels
This particular set of wedges is only
illustra-tive, not prescriptive.
197
Data Colin Campbell, PhD. Graphic
www.hubbertpeak.com
198
Data Colin Campbell, PhD. Graphic
www.hubbertpeak.com
199
This energy chart, produced by the Lawrence
Livermore National Laboratory shows, at left, the
different sources of energy and the amounts
produced in the United States. At right, the pink
boxes show where energy was consumed, while the
shades of gray depict the amount of energy lost
or rejected, often through heat loss. Energy use
in the U.S. dropped nearly 5 percent from 2008 to
2009, with renewable sources of energy
particularly wind power showing significant
growth.