WP3%20

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WP3 Alternative Scenarios of GrowthTrends in
Road Transport (Passenger, Freight)

• D. Tsamboulas
• External Consultant

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Introduction to WP3

• The focus of this report was to provide reference
  scenarios to frame the general evolution of
  transport demand and supply.
• Such a framework does not necessarily require the
  definition of mathematical models linking
  socio-economic variables (inputs) and traffic
  levels (outputs), assigned on a network.
• The moderate and optimistic scenarios for
  socio-economic and transport demand described in
  this report highlight the most important medium
  and long-term trends, given the past and present
  development of key variables

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Basic drawings of WP3

• GDP will continue to increase steadily
• Population will decline slightly from around 2015
• Passenger traffic trend includes the increased
  dependency on the car against other modes like
  bus/ coach and rail
• Freight transport main trends show dominance of
  road transport.
• Such general trends must be taken with caution,
  due to significant differences between regions

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Transport framework

• Based on existing studies and available data of
  transport characteristics and movements of each
  country group,current transport trends were
  identified.
• data from 1990-2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003 were
  employed to establish current transport trends
• employed approach to trend analysis in
  forecasting involves the use of growth curves
• Connection of transport trends with
  socio-economic trends
• Transport forecasting, with 2000 as the base year
• where projections were available they were used
  (TINA, TIRS, SCENARIOS, CODE-TEN, STAC-TEN,
  REBIS, WORLDBANK, UNECE, EC etc.)

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Country groups
n
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Transport trends of Group 1-Connection with
socio-economic variables

• Total Passenger Traffic Growth GDP Growth
• Total Freight Traffic Growth (1,625) (GDP
  Growth)

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Transport trends of Group 2- Connection with
socio-economic variables

• Car Passenger Traffic Growth(1,55)(GDP/Populati
  on)Growth
• Coach Passenger Traffic Growth(-1,68)(GDP/Popul
  ation)Growth
• Freight Traffic by Road Growth GDP Growth

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Transport trends of Group 3- Connection with
socio-economic variables

• Local traffic
• 1.25(GDP Growth)
• Overall traffic (including international)
• (Traffic multiplicator)(GDP Growth)
• Where traffic multiplicator can be 1.68, 2.10
  and 2.6

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Transport Scenarios

• Forecasting on group-country level
• Separately for passenger and freight
• Two scenarios
• Moderate and optimistic
• See tables next

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Table 2 Group 1 Countries - Passenger Demand
Forecasts (Road car and bus/coaches-) Moderate
Scenario
Billion pax-kms
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Table 3 Group 1 Countries - Passenger Demand
Forecasts (Road car and bus/coaches-) Optimistic
Scenario
Billion pax-kms
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Table 4 Group 1 Countries - Freight Demand
Forecasts (Road) Moderate Scenario
Billion tone-kms
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Table 5 Group 1 Countries - Freight Demand
Forecasts (Road) Optimistic Scenario
Billion tone-kms
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Table 6 Group 2 Countries Passenger Demand
Forecasts (Road) Moderate Scenario
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Table 7 Group 2 Countries Passenger Demand
Forecasts (Road) Optimistic Scenario
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Table 8 Group 2 Countries Freight Demand
Forecasts (Road) Moderate Scenario
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Table 9 Group 2 Countries Freight Demand
Forecasts (Road) Optimistic Scenario
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Table 10a Accumulated Road Traffic Growth in
Group 2 Countries (Moderate scenario)
Projections per country, separately for
passenger and freight impossible, but trend
forecasting of total traffic, was relatively
easier, since TINA had produced projections up to
2015
Table 10b Accumulated Road Traffic Growth in
Group 2 Countries (Optimistic scenario)
Projections per country, separately for
passenger and freight impossible, but trend
forecasting of total traffic, was relatively
easier, since TINA had produced projections up to
2015
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Table 11 Accumulated Road Traffic Growth in Group
3 Countries (Moderate scenario)
n
Due to limited data no specific projections
were made, but a general hypothesis says that
these countries will probably follow the rest
Group 3 countries
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Table 12 Accumulated Road Traffic Growth in Group
3 Countries (Optimistic scenario)
n
Due to limited data no specific projections
were made, but a general hypothesis says that
these countries will probably follow the rest
Group 3 countries
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Road Traffic- Coaches Specificities

• Group 1
• average annual increase of 0,1 (starting with
  0,03 in the year 2000 and reaching a 0,16
  increase in 2020)
• Group 2
• average annual increase of 0,1 (starting with
  -0,03 in the year 2000 and reaching a 0,23
  increase in 2020
• Group 3
• a similar course with that of Group 2 countries
• The above are based on a moderate scenario. The
  optimistic is not dramatically different though.

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Conclusion for Coaches Traffic

• Passenger traffic is expected to grow but
  bus/coach modal share and traffic volumes are not
  expected to change dramatically up to 2020
• Regarding the present decrease in public
  transport volumes, this is due to the high
  increase in car ownership and usage as well as in
  the development of air transport industry in all
  countries.
• Regarding the minor increases expected in the
  future, these would probably be a result of the
  EC policy objectives that have been defined for
  countries of Group 1 and 2, in order to diminish
  the environmental consequences of transport and
  bring about a shift in transport use from road to
  rail, water and public passenger transport.

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Road Traffic- Trucks Specificities

• Group 1
• moderate forecast on trucks traffic predicts an
  average annual increase of 2,7 (starting with
  2,67 in the year 2000 and reaching a 2,82
  increase in 2020).
• optimistic scenario gives an average annual
  increase of 3,29 (starting with 3,2 in the year
  2000 and reaching a 3,38 increase in 2020)
• Group 2
• moderate forecast on trucks traffic predicts an
  average annual increase of 2,32 (starting with
  2,19 in the year 2000 and reaching a 2,44
  increase in 2020).
• optimistic scenario gives an average annual
  increase of 2,63 (starting with 2,49 in the
  year 2000 and reaching a 2,77 increase in 2020)
• For Group 3, current or future modal shares are
  not analytically available but the underlying
  trend shows a more rapid growth in road than in
  rail freight transport

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Conclusion for Trucks Traffic

• Freight traffic is expected to grow and trucks
  share in absolute numbers-not as modal share-
  is expected to grow up to 2020, both in moderate
  and in the optimistic trend scenario.