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Trends in Demography, Economy and Trade D. Tsamboulas External Consultant ... Contribution of migration to demographic growth in Group 1 is close to 75%. – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: WP3%20


1
WP3 Alternative Scenarios of GrowthTrends in
Demography, Economy and Trade
  • D. Tsamboulas
  • External Consultant

2
Socio-economic framework
  • Based on existing studies and data available
    concerned the economic and social characteristics
    of each country,the socio-economic framework of
    today was outlined.
  • TINA Final report
  • SCENARIOS Final report
  • STAC-TEN Final report
  • REBIS Final report
  • TIRS Final report
  • CODE-TEN Deliverables 4 8
  • WORLDBANK DATABASE
  • UNECE WEBSITE

3
Table 1 Population, GDP, Exports-Imports (in
2003)
4
Basic assumptions for Socio-economic scenarios
  • 2000 as the base year
  • data from 1995-2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003 were
    employed to establish the trends
  • where projections were available they were used
  • approach to trend analysis in forecasting
    involves the use of growth curves

5
Country groups for forecasting
n
6
Demography
  • Demography is very much influenced by natural
    birth and lately by external migration.
  • Contribution of migration to demographic growth
    in Group 1 is close to 75.
  • In Group 2, for some years, since 1993, there has
    been a demographic decrease.
  • The demographic evolutions between countries and
    within countries show indeed high contrasts
    inside Group 1 countries and among the rest.
  • trend analysis in demography forecasting involved
    the use of growth curves

7
Table 2 Population projections for Group 1
countries
8
Table 3 Population projections for Group 2
countries
9
Table 4 Population projections for Group 3
countries
n
10
Economy
  • For Group 1, forecasts do exist for the year
    2020.
  • For the rest, extrapolations to the future years
    (up to 2020) are made
  • Assuming that growth rates in the countries of
    Group 2 and 3, will gradually converge with
    average growth rates in countries of Group 1.
  • However, it is assumed that they are always
    higher than the growth rates in Group 1.

11
Table 5 GDP projections for the Group 1 countries
12
Table 6 GDP projections for the Group 2 countries
13
Table 7 GDP projections for the Group 3 countries
n
14
Foreign trade
  • For Group 1
  • a falling share of primary goods and bulk
    products,
  • a decreasing share of intermediate goods,
  • a rapidly increasing share of the high value
    goods.
  • For Group 2 similar rates of increase for imports
    and exports as with countries of Group 1.
  • more detailed geographic analysis will be
    necessary to investigate the potential growth of
    trade between neighboring countries in the Baltic
    areas, the Central Europe area, the Black sea
    area and the Balkans.
  • The general trend in countries of Group 3 will
    follow the trend of Group 2.

15
Table 8 Exports of Goods and Services (index
2000100) projections for Group 1 countries
Table 9 Imports of Goods and Services (index
2000100) projections for Group 1 countries
16
Table 10 Exports of Goods and Services (index
2000100) projections for Group 2 countries
17
Table 11 Imports of Goods and Services (index
2000100) projections for Group 2 countries
18
Table 12 Exports of Goods and Services (index
2000100) projections for Group 3 countries
n
19
Table 13 Imports of Goods and Services (index
2000100) projections for Group 3 countries
n
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